After his two home runs last night, Nick Swisher is now at .254/.378/.506, with 26 home runs and 4.31 pitches per plate appearance. He is having great at-bats, making consistently solid contact, and fielding his position adequately, with a UZR of 2.7 in the OF. The Swisher acquisition was a coup for Brian Cashman and his staff, and as Marc Carig notes, Swisher’s turnaround is not all that surprising:
His line drive rate in 2008 was a career-high 20.9 percent. Based on that figure, his expected batting average for balls in play was .329, which would have been a just reward for hitting the ball hard. But instead, even though he pounded the baseball, Swisher’s BABIP was a criminally low .251, a number that can be attributed to lots of terrible luck.
So, despite the fact that his walk rates and strikeout rates were roughly the same in 2008 as they were compared to the rest of his career, Swisher’s productivity went into the tank, thus earning himself a one-way ticket out of the Windy City……
According to Fangraphs, Swisher’s line drive rate this season is 16.5, which is actually a dropoff from his miserable 2008 campaign. But unlike last year, there is virtually no difference between his expected BABIP (.285) and his actual BABIP (.286).
In other words, even though he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he did in ’08, Swisher is getting exactly what he deserves for the contact that he is making.
That’s the biggest difference from last season, when Swisher’s productivity was sapped by a 78-point difference between his actual BABIP (.251) and his projected BABIP (.329), a disparity that led to Swisher’s deceivingly low .219 average.
Swisher was incredibly unlucky last season, something that was unlikely to happen again. Brian Cashman nabbed Swish for Wilson Betemit and two middling prospects, and Nick unsurprisingly reverted to the player he had always been in Oakland. Now he is closing in on 30 home runs, has an OBP over .370, and has been surprisingly good with the glove lately. Not bad for a player many Yankees fans were calling a 4th outfielder at the end of May.
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56 Responses to Best 4th Outfielder Ever
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TIQ IQ
Well in a perfect world he would have been a 4th outfielder and it would have strengthened the team even more on paper… Nady in RF with Swisher as the 4th outfielder is much better than Swisher in RF and Hinske the 4th outfielder (even though it’s technically Gardner Hinske works here no Brett)… Swisher is a good player and I am glad to have him on the team, what I find hilarious however is that on almost any other site but this one (before last night at least) people were calling for Swisher to be DFA’d for traded because of his average, I laugh every time I read that because Swisher is the kind of guy who helps the line up even when he has an 0 fer because you know he is going to see around 5 pitches or more per at bat on most nights.
I would have preferred Swisher as RF and Nady as 4th outfielder, but I get your point.
Well then I seriously doubt your thinking on that one… Nady would have hit 20 HRs and would have hit at least .280, Nady is the better everyday player period…
Nady would have struck out less while making the same amount of contact with a better average driving in a similar amount of runs just doing it with more hits and less power all while playing better defense than Swish. Am I glad we have Swisher and he is starting? Yes, but to say he would start over Nady is pretty off the wall.
Huh? Swisher has been the better player for most of their careers. He is a better fielder than Nady by pretty much every metric and reaches base at a higher clip. I was on the fence on this one before the season because of the kind of years both were coming off, but Swisher has been the better player. Swisher career OPS+ 115, Nady 108. Nady had a career year last season, but otherwise his numbers are pretty average, while Swisher has three seasons well above average.
Swisher is a better player than Nady, period.
Chris, you’re crazy if you think otherwise.
Oh, and quick comment about Carig—he’s an awesome reporter. I actually had a brief Twitter exchange with him a few weeks back about Swisher’s BABIP and you can tell that he actually listens to what people have to say and incorporates that into his thinking. He’s a good guy.
OK first off I’m not crazy for disagreeing with you, you aren’t god of baseball… second of all Nady has only ever had one 500 at bat season and you are trying to compare to different players… Nady is an average guy who can hit .280 every season if he is healthy with 20 HRs and plenty of singles, while Swisher’s “best season” average wise is .262 which is terrible and I don’t care if he does walk a lot. If it’s power that’s got your panties in a bunch we don’t need it, Nady averages 21 HRs in 162 game season which is plenty for this team with the amount of power up and down it. Nady Strikes out way less than Swisher and from watching defense with my eyes and not saber metrics Nady is the better defender, Swisher makes some plays that you hold you breathe on Nady makes routine plays look routine. If you guys are trying to look at Nady’s numbers the guy has never been healthy so his numbers never had a chance to stack up, if Nady is healthy I take him over Swisher ever time and I don’t care if you disagree.
Swisher is an average player for the most part with above average power and a ton of walks to add to his boat load of strike outs, Nady is contact hitter who hits 20 HRs and bats .280, he doesn’t walk near as much but if that’s what your judging them off of then I don’t know what your smoking.
Oh and what makes your opinion better than mine?
You dont have to care that we disagree, that is what debate is about. However, most of the numbers suggest Swisher is better offensively and defensively. I watched Nady as well, and my eyes said his range was awful- he did not get to a lot of balls out there. Swisher may botch a few plays, but he gets to a lot more balls than Nady. Further, the only thing Nady has on Swisher is batting average. Swisher reaches base more and has generally better power. He averages more HR’s and RBI’s per 162 than Nady.
Um, no. And it’s not even close.
Thanks for the evidence you give, great counter points and great defense… oh wait you add nothing to this conversation with a post like that…
It’s clear you have no interest in absorbing any of the evidence. Your misguided preconceived notions are clearly preventing you from understanding player values.
Totally agree. He clearly is not afraid of new ideas, and you can actually see him evolving as a fan as he accepts new ideas. That happens to most of us (my blogging at MVN was less advanced in the stat area), but some of the local reporters will only use the numbers to serve their narrative, and discard them when they conflict with their ideas. Carig is excellent.
If you look at the 3 years of Xavier Nady’s career that he has 431 (2006 on) at bats or more he got better each year 2006 in 468 ABs he had 17 HRs and .280 BA in 2007 he had 20 HRs and a .278 BA and last year he had the most at bats he ever had and his only 500 at bat season and he hit 25 HRs with .305 BA. 3 very good years each one improved over the last he is a very good contact hitting outfielder and you can not say otherwise. Also in those seasons Nady struck out 85 times in 06, 101 in 07 and 103 times in 08 While Swisher has never had less than 110 and that was his first year playing full time.
As I said above, Swisher’s 162 game averages are better for homers and RBI. he reaches base more and has more power. He does everything better than Nady except for hit for average.
RBI is a useless stat it’s luck!!! Swisher has been on much better teams than Nady and there for has had the opportunity to drive in more, sorry I will take the guy who won’t kill me with a rally ending strike out. Swisher walks more and has more power Nady his much better overall and strikes out way less.
I point to the stats above to prove you wrong… Swisher walks cool but he strikes out way more times than Nady does and Nady is the much better contact hitter.
Oh and it stops being a debate when someone says I am crazy if I disagree then it just becomes you’re right and I couldn’t be in this situation, doesn’t sound much like a debate huh?
TOCH, you said my opinion was off the wall as well. How is that different. let’s not make this personal and just debate.
Off the wall and you are crazy are two different things and if you can’t see that we can make it personal.
I’m sure everyone will agree with the “authors” but up a debate about it and let the people talk it over… forget the meaningless RBI stat who would you rather have the contact hitter with good power and a great average or a below .250 who walks and strikes out at the top of the league every year who has hit 30 HRs twice so his power isn’t that much greater.
I just dont understand how you can totally over look the fact that Nady’s high in Ks is 103 and Swisher has never had less than 110.
We can have the debate here now, everyone can jump in.
How about this: Nady averages 15 more hits over 162 games, but Swisher averages 60 more walks. That is a large gap. Also, Swisher averages more homers and the same amount of doubles, so we are talking about 15 singles compared to 60 walks. I highly doubt anyone would take the singles over 45 additional baserunners. Swisher averages more total bases, more sac flies. And Nady strikes out plenty, striking out just 35 times less than Swisher a season. Also, you make too much of strikeouts- Nady makes more outs and than Swisher, but more of Swisher’s outs are by K. A K is not equal to a walk- a walk helps more than a K hurts (obviously, because it is easier to make outs than reach base).
The quote/reply system set up is real shitty and sometimes confusing once people start replying and replying.
Runner on third one out Swisher is up strikes out nothing happens, Nady is is up makes contact makes an out sac fly… Big difference to me at least! so 15 more hits and 35 less strike outs makes up for the 60 walks, that means Nady will hit the ball and put it in place at least 50 more times than Swisher, now that is more opportunities for sacs and moving runners over.
But the flaw here is that Swisher averages a lot more sac flies than Nady. So your suggestion does not really play out. Meanwhile, you are telling me that 15 hits and 35 outs that are not strikeouts (but are still outs, and are not getting him more sacrifices than Swish) are better than 60 walks. I really, really disagree. That’s 45 fewer baserunners.
In regard to the quote/reply system, you are the first to say it bothers you. You could just keep replying to the comments above instead of starting a new thread, so that the whole thing stays linear.
Because Swisher has had the opportunity to play a lot longer in each of his seasons like I said Nady has only gotten 500 at bats one year, last year, and only 2 other years with 400 at bats. Nady also has been on much worse teams so those hitting ahead of him weren’t getting to third base… The amount of sac flies depends on number of at bats per season and the other hitters around you not only hitting but being at third base with less than two outs, just because you want skew numbers here to make you look right I won’t let you. It’s clear to see when they both play at the top of their games Nady is the better overall player.
It doesn’t always work that way and the replies don’t always apply to the comment directly above it because it goes in order of post no so you don’t always know who’s replying to what…. It’s not terrible but I don’t like it…
That’s not fair- I’m not trying to skew anything. Swisher averages more per 162- also, Swisher has played for poor offensive teams until this year, whereas the Pirates were actually much better than the A’s offnesively.
Nady only played for the Pirates for a few years and the Padres before that which is a huge home ball park… You however are skewing numbers because Swisher actually plays close enough to 162 games for those stats to matter but with Nady he hasn’t come close but once or twice so you only can look at his last 3 or 4 years and see the steady improvement in each year not true for Swisher… You keep going to average numbers per 162 because it helps your case but looking at each player as they are right now (before the Nady’s injury) is how the comparison should be done, not what both of them did in there careers because Nady’s has been shortened dramatically more than Swisher in every season.
Basically you are saying we can only judge by Nady’s career year, because he got injured so much? I’m not sure that is fair at all. So we can’t go by career numbers, we can only go by the numbers that best support Nady? that seems like skewing in the other direction to me. Also, a 162 game average means all of their performance averaged, so the fact that he had less AB’s per season should not make a difference.
I don’t really see how there is “a debate.” Nady getting injured was a blessing in disguise. He isn’t nearly the defender or hitter that Swisher is.
Excuse me if I don’t take your word for it! Even though you keep making so many good points.. oh wait you have yet too… either let Mo do the debating or put in some facts don’t tag fag off someone elses idea with out putting any extra data in it.
Are you serious? Do you really think that Swisher, with a positive UZR (from this year or his career) as compared to Nady’s negative UZR – (from last year or his career) and his .881 OPS (.818 career) in the big boy league is not better than Nady (.793 career OPS, almost all of it in AAAA)?
Nady hasn’t met a pitch he wouldn’t swing at. Sure, keep on underplaying walks. The Royals do too. It’s gotten them pretty far.
You make to small a deal about strike outs and to big a deal about walks…
Strikeouts are only slightly worse than other outs. Walks are much better than outs but a little worse than singles (because Swisher is walking while Nady is making outs). that is how I value them.
Strike outs kill rallies and kill moral, you strike out with the bases loaded it’s a lot worse mentally than hitting a ground ball with the bases loaded, at least you weren’t completely fooled or just sit there because you trust your eye to much (swisher/Giambi). To me Swisher is just an outfield Jason Giambi with less power than the at his best Giambi and a worse overall average. You can not just ignore the fact that Nady has done everything he has done on worse teams (padres and pirates) and more importantly with injuries through out his career…. If they both play this season one in RF and one in LF Nady is the more valuable player and would have much better numbers, who would you rather have a .300 hitter with 20 HRs or a .240 hitter with 28 HRs and is second in the league in walks and strike outs? I know which one I take but apparently a team full of Jason Bay’s and Swisher’s suits you fine…
I would prefer the guy who makes less outs and hits for more power. Outs are the only finite thing in the game. Avoiding them is incredibly valuable.I’d much rather the guy with 6 extra homers and 60 extra walks to the guy with15 extra singles and 35 less K’s. Its not looking like we will agree here.
because your skewing numbers again… you can’t say he is worth 15 singles, as a .300 hitter Nady has the ability to be infinitely better contact hitter than Swisher…. It’s like saying you don’t want Cano because Dan Uggla hits more HRs and walks more…
Firstly, Nady is a .280 hitter, not a .300 hitter. As I said, he gives you 15 more singles a year, which is true, plus 35 less strikeouts (representing more contact) which is also true. That does not equal 60 more walks and 6 more homers. Also, Uggla hits more Homers but Cano has a lot more doubles, and therefore their SLG is equal. They are also pretty close in OBP, so there isnt a large gap there, so Cano’s better batting average comes into play. Cano is also the superior fielder.
So Nady didn’t hit .300 last year? In his only full season he has shown his potential, Nady would have out up closer to a .300 average than a .280 one this year in my opinion and he would have hit 20+ HRs while 5 in the line up behind Arod. Swisher hitting 5 leads to a lot of strike outs and a lot of walks for Rodriguez, Nady hitting 5 leads to a lot less walks because of the contact he hits with.
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Arod
Nady
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Melky
With Swisher the first off the bench makes a stronger team that
Jeter
Damon
Tex
Arod
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Melky
He is a career .280 hitter. He hit .300 once.
In 3 consecutive seasons Nady has improved with the extra at bats…. In 06 Swisher hit .254 in 07 .262 (career high) and last year .219 while striking out 418 times in that stretch and walking 279 times and the more HRs he hits in a season the more he strikes out…. He sacrifices at bats just to get HRs, which means in a key situation he can strike out trying to get a HR when all you need is a single.
There are a lot of things more important than batting average. I’ve responded to the rest of these points above.
If you compare both’s “career” year and the only year Nady got a full season in they look like this.
Swisher 35 HRs, .254 BA, 95 RBI, 152 Ks, 24 doubles
Xavier 25 HRs, .305, 97 RBI, 103 K, 37 doubles
Even with Swisher walking more I will take the solid contact hitter who will put balls in play…. disagree all you want, call me crazy all you want 10 more HRs isn’t that much better when you consider Nady has just as much chance to get on base I think there OBP is like .020 more for Swisher and yet Nady has more speed and more 13 more doubles. I hate strike outs in a line up they kill you, when you hit and run with Swisher you have to be careful because he doesn’t make contact all the time because he is either swinging for the fences or looking for a walk you know Nady is protecting the plate.
Here is the problem: those two years are pretty similar, and there is definitely a strong argument that Nady’s is better. However, Swisher has had two other years with very good numbers, and is also just in his prime now. Nady has just that one career year.
Nady unfortunately as it keeps coming back to has been hindered by injury, heck it happened again this year, but I fully believe that Nady would have put up numbers close to that. He has shown consistent improvement and growth as a hitter every year for the last 3 years and every time he has been given a chance to get 400+ at bats he has been the better player. Now Nick has been luckier, hits with more power and walks but when Nady is on his game he can hit .300 with 20-25 HR power and drive in just as many RBI while making more contact allowing you to out him higher up in the batting order.
I know everyone remembers the bunt Swisher popped up against Texas anyone think Nady is bunting in that situation? No way! His ability to consistently put bat to ball comes up huge in that situation.
We are just not going to agree on this, so I’m just going to stop here, you can get the last word if you want. Nick has actually performed better over their careers. You can suppose that Nady might be the better player if he had been healthy all along (I disagree), but the fact is that he has not been. I would take Swisher any day of the week.
To be honest, Chris. Sometimes you say some of the most contradictory statements. First you tell Mo that you “doubt he’s thinking on that one” when he says he would have preferred Swisher over Nady, and then when I say you’re crazy for picking Swisher over Nady–which is essentially the same statement—you get defensive. Relax, man.
I doubt your thinking is not an insult calling me crazy for disagreeing is insulting… because crazy in it’s definition means you have problem with your brain, saying I doubt your opinion means I don’t quite agree with you but I am wiling to discuss. So I don’t see how you can not see a difference one is an insult the other isn’t and I don’t respect you anymore for it.
Well, I totally disagree, but that’s okay.
That shows more about you than anything else…
Also, to say “I doubt you’re thinking on that one,” implies what? By your logic, it literally means that a person’s brain is now a defunct object. Your words, not mine.
I doubt your thinking means literally I doubt the reasoning you just backed up your idea with so I doubt your thinking but I am willing to engage because it’s interesting enough to me I don’t totally disagree I just don’t agree totally. they are my words so I would know what I said huh?
LOL, let’s call it a truce. I really didn’t mean to offend you.
It’s whatever but I thought it was rude if only because I chose the words I used in order not to offend someone or accidentally call someone a name….
I feel bad. Sorry about that.
yeah… whatever… it’s the e net… it is what it is…