After AJ Burnett imploded in the 2nd inning of yesterday’s game, Peter Abraham made the following remarks on his blog:
I’m sure that Girardi will start Burnett in Game 2 of the playoffs because that’s what the rotation is supposed to be and he will not want to pitch the lefties back to back.
But this guy is untrustworthy. It should be CC and Pettitte. The idea of Burnett starting his first-ever playoff game should scare the heck out of Yankees fans. Sure, he’s capable of throwing a three-hitter and fanning 10. But he’s way more likely to do what we’re seeing now.
I’m going to have to quibble with the bolded text. Burnett’s ERA looks poor because he has had a rough 6 weeks, and due to the fact that his poor starts have tended to be awful. That being said, a closer look at his game log suggests that he has not been all that bad for most of the season.
AJ has made 29 starts, and has allowed more than 3 runs in just 8 of them. He has made 19 quality starts, in which he went at least 6 innings and allowed not more than 3 runs. By comparison, Justin Verlander has 21 QS in 30 starts, and CC Sabathia has notched 18 QS in 30 starts. AJ’s inconsistent stretches are not marked by many consecutive poor outings. Rather, he tends to have some decent outings mixed in with 3 or four awful ones. Even during this recent rough stretch of 9 starts, he has been solid in 5 of them while throwing 4 stinkers up there. To me, this suggests that he is not far from putting it together, and getting back to where he was for most of the season.
Right now, it is difficult to have a ton of confidence in AJ Burnett. However, the idea that he is more likely to pitch an awful game in the postseason than throw a good game or quality start is clearly not based upon his previous performance. He has been erratic, but the good has, for the most part, outweighed the bad.
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7 Responses to AJ Burnett's Perceived Inconsistency
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TIQ IQ
Burnett is probably the same pitcher he has been the last couple of years with a couple of exceptions. One, he does not face the Yankees 6 starts a year so he is going to have 5 less wins and a miss out on that 1.00 era he had against them. Two, he dominated the Red Sox last year like the Yanks and that has stopped.
So, I figured when they signed him he would have these stats he has now. It’s not that surprising.
He has dominated the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium so you have absolutely no clue what you are talking about, and if he can dominate the Yankees line up he can dominate any team… The only time he has struggled against the Red Sox all year was the two games in Fenway so if you face Boston in the post season you start AJ 2nd at home so he doesn’t have to go there and most likely he pitches well.
Please “The Other Chris H”, no insults. We both love the Yankees. I am an emotional fan who does not check statistics before making a comment, just what I remember, and he dominated them in Fenway for the Jays.
As far as the commmentary on Michael Kay/Vin Scully on the previous article….I do not attend many games in person. Therefore,I am not the drunken fan you may have been referring to. To tell you the truth, if I am watching a big game I would prefer to watch it on TV by myself. No distractions whatsover. Total concentration, replays, camerar angles, commmentary, etc.
…and I do think Burnett will pitch big in the Playoffs. Kind of like an Ollie Perez thing.
Well this is why one should not respect the beat reporter for anything other than a quick recap of the situation.
My stance is that unless the sportswriter is a former player, former coach, or someone who was intimately with the sport and has legitimate insights, then that sports writer is not credible.
*cough Bill Simmons and Buster Olney*
He’s disappointed me and I was dying for Yanks to sign him.He needs to go back to throwing harder when he needs it.He can’t be Halladay.
So far:
Sabathia has 8 poor starts, 3 mediocre, 19 good or great
Burnett has 7 poor starts, 7 mediocre, 14 good or great
Petitte has 11 poor starts, 3 mediocre, 15 good or great
So percentage-wise, you have a “decent outing” rate of 75% for Burnett, 62% for Petitte for the year so far. Burnett’s faltered lately, but not to the point where you ignore the first 140 games.
I totally agree – I am not worried about Burnett. To be honest it is more of a relief that he is getting the clunkers out of the way now. Just need him to get on a roll come post season and we would be well set.