Via MLBTradeRumors:
Baker hears that the Red Sox gave the Mariners the chance to choose five of the following players in exchange for Felix Hernandez:
Clay Buchholz
Daniel Bard
Justin Masterson
Nick Hagadone
Michael Bowden
Felix Doubront
Josh Reddick
Yamaico Navarro
It seems that the Red Sox were protecting Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, and Ryan Westmoreland, among others. As we learned this morning, Brian Cashman was one of the GM’s who called to inquire on Hernandez. An equivalent list from the Yankees would probably read as follows:
Phil Hughes/ Joba Chamberlain
Austin Jackson
Zach McCallister
Ian Kennedy
Dellin Betances
Austin Romine
Mark Melancon
Kelvin DeLeon
Would you be willing to give up 5 players on that list to get Hernandez? I certainly would. If I could get King Felix without giving up Jesus Montero, I would almost certainly make that trade. The fact that Hernandez may be available in a deal makes it less likely that he ever sees free agency. If so, a preemptive strike to acquire him might be required to obtain the fledgling ace, who is certainly a unique talent. What would you do?
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41 Responses to The Price On King Felix
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TIQ IQ
So the Mariners would get a possible 1/2 starter in Hughes, a couple of back-end options in McAllister and IPK, their future closer in Melancon and their future catcher in Romine. And there’s still no way they’d do it. That’s ok with me because I have prospect crushes on both Romine and Hughes.
I really doubt they choose IPK, I really don’t see him as a long term starter and he seems more like an Aceves or Masterson and there isn’t much trade value in that, most likely out of that list instead of Kennedy they would probably pick Betances. I also really doubt they don’t ask for Jackson they may have a crowded outfield but Griffey won’t be around long and Langerhans and Gutierrez aren’t exactly staples in the line up. If I was trading Felix for that list it would Betances, Hughes, McAllister, Romine and Jackson but I’m not sure if they would do it without Montero but maybe they would.
Anything and everything short of Montero. Now if they would have thrown in Washburn for Montero, creating an almost absurd likelihood of a World Series, I would have to re-consider. Felix, CC, AJ, Pettite, Washburn? Feels like 98 all over again (and we all know how great those three years following were).
This is like a Pujols package.
King Felix is worth a Pujols package–dude is two years younger and decently better than Beckett was when the Sox gave up Hanram and Anibal Sanchez for him
Wait, are we saying any 5 on that list? So Moshe, you’re saying you’d be fine with giving up Hughes, Joba and 3 more from the list for Felix? Pardon me if I’m being dense here, but no way would I make that trade. I think Felix is great, but not that great. I’m not even sure what his career progression suggests in terms of his long term future compared just to Joba. If you look at Felix’s career stats to date, they are great, but nothing like a young Dwight Gooden or Roger Clemens. No way would I give up 5 top prospects including Hughes and Joba for Felix. I must be reading this wrong, as I don’t see how anyone else right in the mind would either.
No, Hughes Or Joba, that is why I had the slash there. A deal of Hughes, Jackson, McCallister, Romine and a 5th would not kill the Yankees long term, and to be honest, it may not be enough.
Furthermore, not sure what everyone’s position was when Santana was on the trade market, where it was maybe only Hughes from that list, but what is it that people think Felix would do in the future that Santana has not already done and continues to do? If you were’nt in favor of the potential Santana trades that were reported a couple years back, why would you even begin to consider the 5 for 1?
Santana was almost 29. Felix is 23. He is younger than Joba.
Exactly we may not have even seen a full progression into his dominance yet and I just assume every Yankee pitcher at least at some point throws a cutter with Mo just to see what he can do with it.
Santana was turning 29 and approaching decline. Getting King Felix now (assuming he can be resigned), you would be buying his prime years and the years until then. With Sanatana you’re trading prospects for a veteran. I would say its fair to say Hughes had/has a lot more projection left in him than Santana while you can’t say the same about a Hughes/Felix comparison. Basically in this scenario you’re trading the potential of what Hughes/Joba could be for what Felix already is and will continue to be for theoretically the same period of time. Felix is less than a year older than Hughes or Chamberlain.
Whether or not he’s as good as Doc or Clemens doesn’t really matter because none of the guys you’re giving up are. The question is simply who can be expected to have a better career and Felix is a much safer bet at this point with the same or even more upside than Hughes or Chamberlain. The only swing is Montero because he may project as a generational type catcher.
Man, I just don’t see it. If you stack up Joba’s stats career to date against Felix’s, I’m not sure what people see that I’m not seeing, because they don’t suggest Felix is dramatically better than Joba just as a 1×1, yet they’re only about 6 months apart in age. The distinction I’d make is that Felix has been in the big leagues longer and therefore is farther along in the maturity of his career. He walks fewer batters and is more economical and therefore gets deeper into games. If we are all so worried about a pitcher’s arm falling off, look at how Felix went from 84.1 innings in the bigs at 19 (not sure how many he had in the minors) to 191 his 2nd year at 20, 190.1 again in his 3rd year at 21 and then 200.2 in his 4th year at 22. They didn’t phase in the innings gradually, he just got bumped up from the get go. If we think that is a precursor to injury then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him come down with arm problems in the future. I’m looking at whip, strikeouts per inning, what else should I be looking at? Does anyone realize he gave up 195 hits in 191 innings in his 2nd year in the bigs with a 4.52 ERA? In his 3rd year he gave up 209 hits in 190.1 innings with a 3.93 ERA. Felix is a very good pitcher, but not the guy you break the bank for IMHO. As for Santana, he was on the block at 28 years of age, going on 29. How is that any different than CC at the time the Yankees go thim? The season he had last year, his first as a Met was something that Hernandez hasn’t even come close to yet in a full season. There’s no reason to think Santana cannot continue to perform at that level for another 5 years, as he’s done this year for the first 2/3 and still at only 30 years of age as I type this. What’s this fascination with King Felix? IMHO, I think we’ve got one of our own in Joba blossoming before our eyes and would not give up those other guys along with Joba to just get a facsimile of the guy we’ve already got.
Felix went gradually if you look at his minor league numbers. Joba has had injury issues, and you still have to be the tiniest bit concerned about his strange fluctuations in velocity. Meanwhile, Felix put up above average seasons at 20 and 21, and has basically turned into a workhorse ace at 23. I think Jackson and McCallister are solid but unspectacular prospects, and Romine comes from a position of org. strength. It just makes sense to me, but I definitely see where you are coming from with the Joba-Felix comp.
This blog is far away the best Yankee blog on the internet. Close second would be Lohud. Pending Pinstripes has great info about our prospects. River Ave Blues is a distant runner up. Very distant.
Now getting back to this forum, I have to say I am 36 years old. Ive seen the good times, the bad, the awful, and the emergence of a dynasty followed by bad again.
I am not willing to sacrifice an entire farm system for one player. I would have untouchables. Those untouchables would include Hughes, Montero, Deleon, and Joba. Every time we see a deal where Bucholz is involved where quick to include Hughes or Joba. Pardon my french, but Bucholz is no f#$**ing Hughes or Joba. And I would only make this trade if none of these players are involved. Maybe Deleon as centerpiece with Jackson, Romine, and McCallister. But no way would I include Hughes, Montero, or Joba. Anyways King Felix will be a free agent in two or three years. We either wait for his last year in Seattle and trade lesser prospects than a Hughes, Montero, and Joba or we wait and sign him on the market.
That’s the thing. If he comes out and says that he will not sign an extension, I would not trade for him. I’m not trading Joba or Hughes +4 for 2 seasons of him, but I would for 7.
I really don’t see Joba going anywhere in a trade the most likely one to me is Hughes and I even think Hughes is the one that would be targeted by other GMs because they still think of Joba as a reliever.
Oh, and thanks for the props. We are working really hard to make this the best spot for Yankees fans on the web.
By the way, even if you traded say Hughes, Montero, A-Jax, and McCallister for him and than because he was overworked at a young age his arm starts barking, we just now mortgaged the future for one player. You deal from a strength and not a weakness. Our farm is a strength right now but not to the point where we can give up our best prospects and recover. Where in such a great position and my fear is that anxious Yankee fans do not have the patience it takes to relax and let Cash rebuild the team as Gene Michael did. Of course some of these prospects will be traded. It’s inevitable. But in deals to help tweak the lineup or bring in a solid arm. Just not at the expense of our best prospects.
That’s why Montero wouldn’t be part of the deal and wasn’t on the list the deal illistrated here would probably end up being Hughes, Betances, Romine, McCallister, Jackson based off of potential and likely hood to make it to the big leagues… the potential being Betances and Romine and the likely hood to make it to the big leagues being the two that are a half year or so from being ready in McCallister and Jackson couple that with the already ML pitcher in Hughes and they still might not except but I would do it in a second if he would sign… and he would because the Yankees would give him the most anyway, although if I was going to send the prospects I would ask to negotiate long term with him first.
Can you imagine that rotation?
CC Sabathia
Felix Hernandez
AJ Burnett
Joba Chamberlain
Alfredo Aceves
Starting depth
IPK
Ivan Nova
George Kontos
Maybe at some point down the line Brackman but he is no where close to being a guaranteed major league level player.
I wouldn’t trade for Felix. He’s bound to become a FA. The Yankees have the money—if they want to bid for him, they’ll outbid for him and get him. I would give him 200 million without hesitating, too (if I were a GM). The only problem he has is his temperament. Other than that, he seems to have matured tremendously as a pitcher.
Also, I think the only reason he nixed a deal to the Yankees when he was an amateur was because he wanted to go where Freddy Garcia—his idol—had been (though Garcia was traded in ’04).
Heck, if 100 mil was put up for Dice K, and 46 mil for Igawa then Felix is a bargain at 200 mil. the luxury tax might deter this move… maybe.
Good point. That luxury tax is a killer.
IF you trade for him and lock him up now while the market is down you won’t drive the price up on yourself and no reason to do that, just make sure you have the long term deal in place before a trade is completed to make sure you have him for the foreseeable future.
Right now, Joba is the best pitcher in the AL. Never trade him or montero
That’s hyperbole. Joba is not the best pitcher in the AL, as much as I like the guy.
No but he does haave some of the highest up side out of any of the young pitchers in the AL but on the flip side of that coin he also has the furthest fall.
Moshe,
Call it hyperbole or whatever you want. I take Joba over Felix right now. He has four pitches and is in a groove. As the guy who was will to throw 24 year old Melky Cabrera out as a “bad” baseball player you might have learned some patience. Gammons called Joba the most unhittable putcher two years ago when he came up. He is better now.
JD Gammons is good and should be respected for his opinions but that’s all they are OPINIONS aka educated guesses by a sportscenter guest don’t base your opinions or arguments off something you saw on ESPN.
Felix Hernandez 2009- 12-4, 152.1 IP, 141 Ks, 43 walks, .236 OBA
Joba Chamberlain 2009- 7-2, 110.2 IP, 97 Ks, 50 walks, .254 OBA
Felix Hernandez 2006(first full year starting 20 years old)191 IP, 176 Ks, 60 walks,.260 OBA
Joba Chamberlain 2009(first full year starting 23 Years old)110.2 IP, 97 Ks, 50 walks,.254 OBA
It’s really not close Felix has always had the better command and the more consistent velocity with next to no health concerns and most importantly he has proved what he is thorugh consistent work. As much as I love Joba he is not consistent and has only ever won back to back starts in his career once and thats now with his 3 game streak going.
A-Jax
Zach
IPK
Austin R.
Phil/Mark
Not to much for a 23 year old that pitches like a 30 year old ace.
No way do I give up Joba or Montero, to much up side with those two.
As for Brackman, this guy can be the real deal, he just needs time…from what I saw, he can be very nasty.
Phil/Mark? Are you serious? Melancon is nothing compared to the value of Hughes, Melancon is thought of by some Yankee fans as a god and he really hasn’t proven much and doesn’t carry that much trade value.
With Brackman only time will tell, right now he is not a beast nor is he nasty because he can’t even get out of the 4th inning with less than 5 runs in A ball.
That offer gets you hung up on. There’s no sure-fire major league starter in there unless by Phil you mean Hughes and not Coke (which I believe is what you meant). Even a package of Hughes/Romine/McAllister/IPK/A-Jax prob doesn’t get it done.
Why would they want IPK over a pitcher with Ace upside like Brackman or Betances?
Look, obviously Felix is more polished and has had a better career to date even accounting for the fact that he pitches against relatively weak teams in the west year in and year out. (My point is that he would have substantially worse stats pitch against a steady diet of boston, tampa, toronto and baltimore). I am looking prospectively. Joba just has more going for him.
Joba may have a better future and that’s debatable but you said right now you would take Joba over Felix and as much as I love him we would have a much better shot at winning a world series with Hernandez than we would with Joba because right now Felix is an Ace and Joba is at best at great 3 starter and at on his bad days he can be a 5th starter level of production.
I also showed you the difference in his first year starting and Joba’s (this year) and the numbers clearly show more control and more dominance on a consistent level, has Chamberlain shined? Yes, but not consistently.
And I mean right now. This week against the Sox I would rather have Joba start for my team than Felix. Joba is going to kick their ass.
I’m glad you feel that way, but you are likely to find yourself alone in that opinion. About the Melky thing, I have said that I was wrong about him many times. That has nothing to do with my opnion on this. I think Joba will be great. That doesn’t change his injury history and the general level of failure on the part of young pitchers. Feliz is the better bet, and Cashman would trade him in the right package for Felix.
Joba is my boy and it is possible I am the biggest Joba supporter on this whole website, it may be debatleable maybe but hes my favorite Yankee (outside Jeter because hes been a Yankee for years) however even I would swap Joba for Felix this weekend. He has simply been more consistent in fact in 41 innings pitched against the sox (in the last 3 years including this one) he has a 3.05 ERA, 33 Ks and he has held them to a .229 BA. Your argument just isn’t going to hold water to say Joba should start over Felix this weekend even if joba throws a complete game 1 hitter.
Ha. I may be alone in my view. I was with Melky too it seemed. But if Joba throws a one hitter against the Sox I will have to push you guys off to get a seat on the bandwagon.
I was a real big supporter of Melky from the start too but it could have just been because after Bernie’s last year in center anyone who could play D and showed the slightest bat would have been welcomed. I actually thought Melky would his “break out year” last year but I guess being a year late is OK.
I will say that Joba has always pitched very well against the Sox and I wouldn’t be surprised if he dominates, but because he is still inconsistent I wouldn’t be shocked to see him leave in the 4th with a 7 spot on the board either… just don’t heap to much expectation on him yet.
T.O.Chris…
How many times have you watched Brackman pitch?
I have watched him and can see (at times) a very Nasty pitcher. He has a long way to go but, hard work can get him back.
I still say; No deal if they want any of—Joba, Montero.
Of course, everyone knows I don’t like to trade away our prospects.