Many pundits and have declared the AL East race to be over. The Yankees have opened up a 6.5 game lead on Boston, while putting 8 games between themselves and Tampa Bay. While it does seem at this point that the Yankees have all but sewn up the division, I would like to be a wet blanket and suggest a bit of caution in making that assertion. I am not going to reference the Mets or Phillies of years past as evidence, because this Yankee club is better than those teams that have blown leads in the past. Instead, I urge you to look at the current season for a bit of perspective.
On June 24th of this season, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 5 games. Exactly a month and a half later, the Yankees lead Boston by 6.5 games. It took 6 weeks for the Yankees to gain 11.5 games on Boston in the standings. With about 6 weeks remaining in the season, there is no reason that a club as talented as the Red Sox cannot make up 6.5 games. While you may think that the Yankees are clearly the better team and will surely not play poorly enough to relinquish the lead, I am certain Red Sox fans would have told you the same thing on June 24th.
If looking back to June 24th makes you uncomfortable, why not take a gander at the standings from last week. It took the Yankees 6 days to gain 6 games. Baseball is a game of streaks, and two streaks headed in opposite directions happened to match up. That does not mean that the Yankees cannot lose a few games in a row with Boston capitalizing. As we have seen over the last few days, things can change in a hurry in baseball. Add in the fact that the teams still have 6 meetings remaining with each other and that the Red Sox have an easier schedule, and you have a recipe for an interesting six weeks. The Yankees struck a major blow over this weekend, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The AL East race is far from over.
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13 Responses to Spoiling The Mood: It Is Not Over
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TIQ IQ
Very true, it’s far from over. The Yankees still have a bunch of games against Boston and Tampa, and too many defeats in those games could propel Boston or Tampa right back into contention for first place. The Yanks have certainly given themselves some breathing room, but they’ll have to maintain the high level of play they displayed against Boston this past series.
I am going to disagree on this one. While it is far from over and 6 weeks is an eternity in baseball, Boston will not be putting together a run to catch the Yankees. They will fall apart like they did following the Boston Massacre in 2006 and will finish behind both Tampa and Texas in the standings. Also if CC, AJ and Andy can pitch like they did this weekend the playoffs will be fun.
Its not over for NY, but it is over for the Sox. Way too many holes and injuries for them to come back. 3-4-5 holes in their rotation and a mess on the the left side of their infield. Theirs starters are burning out the pen and a pen that looked to be the best in baseball now looks like the innings are catching up with them. The Sox are going to have a hard time playing over .500 ball here on out. No way they make up 6.5 games. Even better, they have Lowell whos range is about one step either way at 3rd and Ortiz back for next year. They don’t have a proven SS, they will need a LF for next year, and 3-4-5 guys for the roration. Theo is going to have a very challenging offseason to prepare for. Some point soon you will see the Sox throwing the kids out thier so see what they have for next year.
Over?
Far from over.
Doesn’t anyone ever learn from history.
Red sox pitch great, field well (except You-kill-us in LF) and will eventually find their hitting strokes again.
We lose all the games in Fenway and they’re right back in it.
We should make the playoffs but the division is far from over.
I remember telling people here that 0-8 agianst the Sox meant zero in June when we fell behind 4-5 games and a 6 game lead with over 50 to play can be erased in a week or two.
Far from over.
They pitch well? I guess that’s true if they get to pitch Beckett and Lester every game. Otherwise, not so much.
And by the way. Their defense has been pretty poor this year. Lowell is horrible at third this year. They don’t have a shortstop. Their defensive efficiency is quite low compared to the Yankees.
Youkilis is now there 3rd baseman so they pick up D at 3rd and lose it at first.
They are counting on Penny and two rookies for their rotation. Bay is gimpy in left. Drew is always gimpy in right. Baldelli is on the dl and they have a kid from AA playing every day. Lowell can’t move at 3rd and Green is starting at short. They aren’t going to play .700 ball here on out to catch us. I like your 2004 parnoia and all, but the Sox are done. Ding dong the witch is dead.
After the WS where the Sox came back against us down 3 games, I have never believed in any locks. I don’t care what the history is. I dont care about injuries etc. It is all about winning the next game. Tonight is as important as yesterday.
Totally agree with Moshe. Don’t forget Bucholz pitched very well against the Yanks and they could get back Wakefield and/or DiceK in the next few weeks, so things could turn very quickly for the Red Sox in their starting rotation. When you’ve got a 1-2 of Beckett/Lester, you’re already leaps and bounds ahead of most of the competition. I don’t think they’ll catch the Yankees, but you never know and I do think the Sox will be the wildcard, which could lead to an ALCS matchup. Anything can happen.
Buckholtz pitched well, but he’s a rookie. I tend to think that he’ll be inconsistent. I really believe Tampa is a better team than Boston. I think the rest of the year will demonstrate that.
I have a hard time thinking we’re a cinch with Mitre pitching every 5th game and Joba near his innings limit.
Well Joba will start all the way through at least the first round of the playoffs so we are looking good for the short post season series it’s just going to be maintaining until that point in time with guys like Mitre and Gaudin, we can afford to lose every 5th game and this is actually the first loss in a Mitre start so far so he’s not good but he’s not throwing games away (even though he more or less did today) but Gaudin should be given a shot a some point to at least see what someone else with the opportunity to pitch can do with it.