Dave Allen (FanGraphs) has a nice writeup on Phil Hughes’ transition from the rotation to the ‘pen. Here’s Allen’s final take on Hughes’ future:
Phil Hughes will be the Yankee’s 8th inning man for his year and the playoffs, but next year it will be interesting to see what they do. Using the FanGraphs WAR valuation an elite reliever is worth about the same as a just slightly above average starter (this year Joe Nathan is worth about as much as Tim Wakefield and Mariano Rivera is worth the same as Gil Meche). So the Yankees would have to think the difference in his performance as a starter and reliever is much larger than that of the average stater to justify keeping him in the pen next year.
Essentially, Allen seems to indicate that Hughes would have to be an above average starter—albeit barely—in order to be given a rotation spot, since his value as an elite reliever is already as much as a Tim Wakefield or a Gil Meche. If that’s the case, do the Yankees think that they still have that with Phil Hughes? Do they think he can be an above average starter and possibly more? I certainly think they do. Furthermore, Hughes will be better than any combination of Sergio Mitre or Chad Gaudin, so that comes into play since next year’s rotation looks like it’ll start off being CC, A.J, Joba and Andy (he’ll be back barring injury).
What do you think? After the endless Joba debate, are we going to have a Hughes debate, too?
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21 Responses to Pondering Phil's role
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Put him the rotation. People don’t realize how young Phil is. They assume how he was as a starter is what he’ll always be. He still projects as a top of the rotation starter. If not a one, definitely a two. Let him start.
How is he all of a sudden going to start throwing harder? He isn’t, how is he all of a sudden going to add movement to a notoriously straighter than straight fastball? He’s not! He does not project top of the rotation he projects to middle of the rotation, people like you just have fallen in love with Hughes because he was suppose to be great and has been around decent amount of time for a young guy. Hughes as a set up man and future closer solves a problem that Yankee fans think is going to solve it’s self when Mo goes and you know what that it foolish! We have the luxury of the best closer in baseball and when he goes everyone is going to realize what he meant to the team and wish we had a closer like that again and we won’t, hell Hughes won’t even be Mo but he will be good and he has the potential to be one of the best closers in the league, no one here thinks that is important but it is!
He throws plenty hard and has plenty of movement on his fastball. He has great command and very good curveball. There is a reason that every team in baseball wants Hughes in any deal we discuss. But you can just call people foolish. Go ahead if it makes you feel better.
You can’t just say he throws hard with movement when he doesn’t… How is this personal for you? As a starter he throws 91 and his fastball has no movement that is why he has always and will always give up HRs, but as a reliever his ball has a lot more velocity and life to it the transformation of his fastball is the biggest reason he is more successful in the pen than the field. If you are going to try and say something about a player at least have proof or something more tangible than “Phil does have movement” because I am trying to have an intelligent discussion and those involve thought and an argument made with actual facts.
He was getting his velocity back his last few starts. He’s spent the previous two years hurt a good part of the time and is just getting his arm strength back to the point where it was when he was utterly dominant in the minors. And calling people foolish is a great way to have an intelligent conversation.
I have watched every start he has made in the majors and his velocity he was “getting back” never was that high, he isn’t going to suddenly hit 95 on the gun as a starter he just isn’t because he has never been there he sits consistently around 91 or 92 and maybe hitting 93 on the occasion and it slips down to 89 or 90 at times he isn’t blowing past you and he has very little movement and I have heard Yankee coaches say that.
I never called you foolish did I? I said it is foolish for some Yankee fans to believe that the replacement for Mo could be any bum off the street. People are way to sensitive if I didn’t even call anyone in particular foolish and you take it personal, you basically are saying that you believe any bum off the street can replace Mo because that is specifically what I called foolish… learn to read please.
He sat at 93 his last few starts and touched 95 a couple of times. And you aren’t the only one that watched all his starts. Some of us even watched some of his minor league starts. And you can take your condescending attitude and shove it.
Throw out “value” from fangraphs who cares do you honestly believe without Mo we are where we are? Do you honestly think Gil Meche is as important as Rivera? I hope to god you don’t! I truthfully don’t believe Hughes will be better than a good four or solid 5 starter so if you make him a closer the “value” you see it as is there. Hughes has the ability to be a great closer with a good repertoire but as a starter he is a guy who’s fastball is one of the straightest in the league sitting in between 89-92 at the most and a lack of control on a lot of his pitches. Even as a set up man he misses location a lot but at 95-98 it doesn’t matter as much as it does going through a line up 3 times at 90.
While I wouldn’t chuck out the statistical analysis entirely I think a great deal can be missed in staring a stat sheet. Rivera has blown one save this year. Pencil in a good but not great closer for 3-4 blown saves, a below average one for 5-6 at least. Compare that to Gil Meche. Is Gil Meche four wins better than a solid veteran starter? Probably not. In Phil Hughes’ case, his dominance as a set-up man is probably good for 2-3 more wins at least than a platoon of Robertson, Bruney, Coke, etc, especially when one considers that someone else would then be forced to take over their innings. Is he 3 wins better as a starter than Gaudin/Mitre? The temptation is to say yes, but with our lineup we’re generally competitive in those games anyway, we lose a couple of those starts because of off days, and there is no guarantee that he’s an above average starter right now. Statisticians sometimes forget that these players’ performances don’t exist in a vacuum. The value of a Mariano or a Hughes in their present roles has to be appreciated versus the alternatives right now, not what we might acquire by next season. Over the long haul sure, 200 quality innings is a lot more valuable than 60-70, but in the playoffs or down the stretch where sample sizes are small statistical analysis can tell comparably little and “anomalies” can rule the day.
Exactly and it seems like people are penciling in Hughes for 200 innings every year, the guy does have an injury history and he will be going into a innings limit next year as a starter and there is no guarantee on what you will get when he transitions back. I am not saying you can’t put Hughes in the rotation and he wouldn’t be successful he would probably be worth 15 or so wins a year in his prime with a low 4 ERA or high 3 sometimes if he is able to stay healthy and become a complete pitcher who uses location but I think it would be a huge mistake to try and move him back to the rotation if you have no one who can be the set up man next year which we don’t. I really don’t want to watch David Robertson walk 2 or 3 batters every 8th inning setting up Mo, walks kill you late in games and that is David’s one real weakness right now. If we trade for a Huston Street in the off season then I would completely shut up and be rooting for Hughes to join the rotation and be good but I think it is foolish to try and put him in the rotation where you don’t know what you will get if it means that we have to search the whole year for a set up man. Hughes has a chance to be special in the pen IMHO he has a chance to be average or slightly above average in the rotation, it would easier to fins someone with his production in the rotation than it would be to find his production in the 8th and 9th innings consistently. If anyone takes the word foolish personally get over it! It’s not directed at anyone which apparently people didn’t get last time.
I think that writing off pitchers before they turn 25 is the only part of this conversation that’s ‘foolish’. Hughes has been very successful as a starter in the high minors, and has suffered the fate of a lot of 22-23 year old starters n MLB-he’s struggled. There are a lot of very successful, top-of-the-rotation guys who struggled before they hit their 25th birthday.
How is it not foolish to underrate Mariano Rivera and act like we can replace him with any bum off the street and not miss a beat? I never wrote him off… I just think his best opportunity to be a great player is in the pen, I never sid he couldn’t be a starter but he can’t be the type of starter who wins Cy Young’s or wins 20 games and has a 3.1 ERA he just isn’t going to reach those numbers with the stuff he has I’m sorry if you love him but that is what I see watching his pure stuff. His make up is great for the pen and he has tremendous stuff in the pen backed up by his numbers and his sub 2 ERA and more Ks per innings. To say he is CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett is just not true he will never reach the level of production they pump out. Hughes ultimate potential lays in the the pen, he has the ability to take over Mo after setting up and we wouldn’t have to go through a struggle period like the Red Sox did recently trying to find our new guy when we had him all along.
I think it depends on Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte. If both of them come back, then maybe you keep Hughes there for another year. Next season they’ll have Ian Kennedy for depth and they can always switch Hughes to a starting role later on.
Wang will not be coming back there is just no reason to try and bring him back from elbow problems and sign him up to a contract, Andy however probably will be back and Kennedy I don’t believe in for the rotation all that much, I think he has some potential but he doesn’t project as a great starter.
You are a real people person… haha I am not going to get in a flame war with you I am older than that, somehow you took something personal off the internet that was never personal so you can do what you want but I disagree with you! Also the YES gun has been off all year and hitting 95 is not something Hughes does consistently and very rarely when he ever does he mostly sits around 91 or 92 and occasionally higher and lower to say he is at a point where he could be a dominate starter I don’t agree in the least!
Heck if your worried about Gaudin being in the rotation next year (which I don’t think would happen) you could sign a Rich Harden or Ben Sheets (who would be recovered) or even Jarrod Washburn in the off season to sure up the number 5 spot… I just think if you are putting Hughes in the rotation to be a 5th starter because some guy said his value is that of Tim Wakefield in the bull pen it’s a mistake. He wins us games, the bull pen got 10 times better once he became the actual full time bridge to Mo, maybe he pitches well and gos 6 innings in most of his starts and then we still lose all his starts because we have no one to hold the lead what then? Sabathia, Burnett, Joba, Pettitte is a fine rotation and when you add a Harden or Washburn or Sheets (all of whom would come fairly cheap) the 5th spot is sealed up and you have Kennedy and Mcallister and Nova in the minors for just in case possibilities and a guarantee of Hughes and Mariano in the 8th 9th of save ball games, to me that sounds like we come into the season as the favorites to win it all with our pitching, and if something goes wrong with the rotation you always have the option of stretching Hughes out and trading for someone to take over the 8th in the middle of the season.
I think that Phil deserves a shot in the rotation, now that he has confidence. Unlike Joba, Phil has struggled in the major league rotation, and has some issues that may indicate that he could continue to struggle (Namely, the lack of a good 3rd pitch, while Joba throws 4 great pitches). So, he may flounder, but the move back to the bullpen is easy.
I have no problem with allowing an open-ended 5th starter spot to begin next year. We’ll have the Burnett/Sabathia/Chamberlain/Pettitte group again, and some combination of Nova, Kontos, Hughes, Kennedy, Mitre, Gaudin, and others can battle it out for the spot. And Zach McAllister will also be waiting in the wings at Triple-A. I’d love to not have to overpay for a free agent.
I have no problem with an open ended 5th spot either however I think a guy who is 28 like Rich Harden and has had some injury problems in the past but also has pitched well in the AL (not an ace but well) would come fairly cheap especially given his year and injury history and if he pitches like he can he could be the best 5th starter of any rotation but it’s not neccesary, and I also have no problem with hughes trying to earn a spot in the rotation as the 5th starter but if he is going to do that we need to solve the 8th inning problem this off season, we have to go ouyt and get a Street or Bell who the Yankees seem to really like just someone who can nail down the 8th inning and allow us to keep Robertson, Coke, Aceves and Marte for less stressful roles that they can easily handle.
Also Kontos won’t be able to compete for a pitching spot next year because he will be recovering from Tommy John surgery, so the triple A gang would be Nova, Mcallister and Kennedy maybe someone else could come up and try to get in on that but right now I don’t see it. I also don’t really see a spot on the team for Mitre next year and I don’t see him going to triple A to wait for a chance to play.
To answer your question abou are we going to have a Hughes debate… I think all these comments prove yes we are! haha
Three people, doesn’t make a debate…we need an even number.
Mo was brought up as a starter, when he showed he couldn’t make it as a starter, they moved him to the BP and were very pleasantly surprised. As they say; “The rest is history”…question, why not do the same with Phil? If he can’t cut it as a starter, move him back to the BP.
Phil has been trying the cutter and his fastball does have movement (a bit of a hop), with a very good curve, fastball and cutter…that’s three pitches.
I don’t know who has said that Phil is a #1/2 starter but, I think he can be a good #2/3 starter with IPK set to be a #4/5 starter. I think it would be a flagrant mistake to dismiss Phil or IPK as good starters.
I wrote a few days ago; “A good starting pitcher can become a very good BP pitcher”. That has been shown as (almost) fact…more then most of them can become very good BP pitchers.
Two people disagreeing makes a debate by the definition of “debate”
Answer me this how come everyone wants Joba in the pen and Hughes in the rotation? It doesn’t make sense, what makes people think Hughes is so much better?