Well Mr. Cashman seems to have pulled off the deal for his 5th starter, albeit a week after the trade deadline. Chad Gaudin is young (26), though oft-travelled, and cheap (prorated minimum for the rest of the season), and, though the player going back to the Padres hasn’t been announced, it seems likely that Cash didn’t give up very much for him. In that respect, it certainly seems like a can’t lose type of deal, but the real question is: can he fill that 5th starter hole? Let’s take a quick look at Mr. Gaudin before we make our guess in that regard.
Scouting Report:
The 26-year-old righty will be with his sixth team in as many years when he reports for the Yanks on Sunday. That’s not exactly a great sign, is it? He’s always been a bit of a tease, as several organizations have fallen in love with him, only to give up on him a year or two later. This scouting report from last year will attest to the array of skills that makes him such a tempting addition in so many trades.
Positives:
- He strikes guys out: This season, he has a stellar 8.97 k/9 and he’s always had a knack for missing bats.
- Movement: This guy doesn’t throw anything straight. Though his fastball only averages about 90 (90.2 this year), he can touch 94 and his ball moves all over the place. His slider is his best pitch and drops off a table. A whopping 32% of his pitches have been sliders this year. He also throws a weird changeup that he calls a two seam change (6.6% of the time this year). This pitch has a ton of action and averages almost 85mph!
- He’s entering his prime years where many guys have breakout years.
Negatives:
- He also walks a ton of guys and has legitimate control issues (4+ BB/9). This may be a particular issue against patient teams like the Red Sox.
- He’s a small frame guy, only 5’10″ so he doesn’t have any projection left on his body. This also may put him in a higher injury risk pool.
- He doesn’t really change speeds. His heater is 90, his change is 85 – not much difference there. There’s a bit more of a gap on his slider (80mph), but even so, there’s no true off-speed pitch in his arsenal.
- His ERA this year is a hideous 5.13 which would typically go up almost a half-run in the switch from NL to AL. The Yanks would really like a sub-5 ERA from their 5th starter.
- There’s a reason why he’s been traded 5 times and got released by the Cubs earlier this year.
Will it work?
I’m going to vote yes on this one. I think he can pitch to a mid to high 4 ERA which Cash would be thrilled to have from the #5 man in the rotation. Why do I think this, despite the litany of issues listed above? A couple reasons:
- His peripherals are mostly promising. With a tidy 3.51 FIP and the k/9 numbers, he appears to be pitching in some bad luck. In 2007, he pitched to a 4.42 ERA as an A’s starter and he’s picked up his k/9 and FIP rates since then, so a mid 4 ERA is very attainable.
- He’s in pretty good form right now. He was awful his last start (6 runs in 3.1 against the Braves) but he allowed 3 runs or less in each of his previous 4 starts.
I think he’s definitely worth a shot and the price is right. I feel like he has a very good chance of solidifying that 5th starter spot. I wouldn’t call it a home run by Cash yet, but maybe a solid double. What do you guys think? Do you think Gaudin seems like a guy who could nail down that job.
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11 Responses to Can Chad Gaudin get the Job Done?
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TIQ IQ
We’ve seen what can happen with guys whose stuff has so much break that they can’t throw strikes on demand. Think Igawa, think Jose Veraa. Nasty breaks landing who-knows-where. I agree with you Tom: if he’s in the pen and he comes in with a few runners on, teams may just wait him out so that he can walk in a run or two. If he starts, then patient teams can get his pitch count up quickly by being patient. I can see where Gaudin would drive a “throw stikes” kind of coach more than a little bit crazy. Maybe Eiland can take just enough break out of Gaudin’s stuff to give him better control
I give this move a 50/50 chance but, hey, another arm that *might* work out is better than an arm that hasn’t worked out. IOW, I’m glad the deal was done. Low risk deal that could help. We’ll see …
I agree that Chad Gaudin for the price could be a useful addition and a much needed one. I don’t have any concerns as to whether we will make the post season with the team we have, the true concern is matchng up the rotation in the playoffs. I am not sold on CC as a big game starter, than we have Burnett and after that all question marks with Joba’s innings, Pettite’s age, and than the others. All in all I think Cash is under rated and this was a move that was worth the risk.
I’m definitely still worried about making the post-season. 6ish game cushion over the Rays is not that much when you consider the 5th starter issues combined with the looming Joba cutoff. Tampa is a very, very, very, very good team. Don’t underestimate them.
All you can say is….We’ll see. Let’s see how things progress, before we christen Gaudin the next Shawn Chacon or Aaron Small.
I think that is definitely Cashman’s hope – that Gaudin will turn into another Chacon (minus the getting banned from baseball thing).
When and if guys like Gaudin learn to throw strikes, they can become very good very very fast. Just look at Edwin Jackson this year, he was walking 4.9 per 9 just two years ago and now he’s a dominant force of nature. Hopefully, somebody in the Yankee’s organization can teach him how to harness his stuff.
I’d rather have a guy with upside than Mitre out there, but I’d rather have a good pitcher out there than either.
I like his K rate against right handed batters out of the pen. If Melancon and Robertson continue to step up along with the return of a healthy Marte Aceves should be able to move into the rotation. I still think Mitre is better then he is showing and is fine as a 5 starter while Gardner is out and the Yankees can shuttle an extra reliever up and back from AAA.
It seems like Aceves is out of the question for 5th starter, since last time they tried it, he didn’t last long and he ended up with shoulder problems.
That is not true. Aceves pitched on short rest when he started that game against the Twins.
He’s best suited for relief, in the David Robertson mold.
Another small pitcher who could strike people out if he only had to pitch an inning at a time.