Over at Beyond the Box Score, Jack Moore has an interesting writeup out about Derek Jeter’s 13 home runs in 2009. According to Moore and based on scaled comparisons of the two Stadiums, the new Yankee Stadium has significantly influenced Jeter’s power as most of the HRs Jeter has hit at home (Moore cites 10, but there have been 11 since the 10th) would not have been HRs in the House That Ruth Built. In fact, if Moore is correct and if there hadn’t been a switch in ballparks, between home and away games, Jeter would have hit only 5-6 HRs in 2009 (this is a cursory evaluation).
Now, Moore’s analysis is debatable due to scaling issues and other a variety of other circumstances (the HRs Jeter hit in 2009 could still have been extra base hits in the old Stadium), however, he hurts his post with the following conclusions.
With this boost in power, Jeter’s ISO has risen 23 points from last year’s mark. Jeter may be in a park that plays to his strengths as an opposite field hitter, but Jeter’s 35, and not much has changed outside of where he’s playing. Despite his increased production, it is still questionable whether or not Jeter’s career can continue after he can’t play SS any more.
These comments are far too general and lack a bit of nuance.
Sure, Jeter’s ISO (isolated power) has “risen 23 points from last year’s mark,” but last year’s mark was more of an aberration than an accurate representation of Jeter’s career norms. For example, Jeter’s ISO figures since 2005 have been 141, 140, 130 and, in 2008, 103. Which ISO doesn’t fit? The 103 was largely the result of a year in which Jeter was injured after being hit on the hand by a Daniel Cabrera fastball. It wasn’t a severe decline brought on solely by age. His career ISO is 142 so Jeter’s 2009 mark of 134 is inline with what he normally does.
On top of that, if Jeter is an opposite field hitter and the only change has been “where he’s playing,” then the ballpark should continue to help him as he ages, right? The park is helping him in the power department, that’s a given, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. If Jeter were to sign with another team after 2010, maybe then you could worry about that, but he’ll probably end his career as a Yankee and in the new ballpark, so what’s not to like? Furthermore, Jeter has always been helped by Yankee Stadium—old and new—so there’s really no new issue here.
Also, I wonder if Moore is operating under the assumption that Jeter is still a poor defensive SS. “It’s still questionable whether or not Jeter’s career can continue after he can’t play SS any more,” he writes. However, Jeter’s defensive renaissance in 2009 indicates that he’ll be playing there for at least a few more years (if the gains we’ve witnessed in ’09 hold up, probably until he retires). His bat isn’t costing them anything at SS and he has been having his best year since 2006. For that reason, why question his ability to remain at the position?
In the end, I’m not sure what Moore meant by his final sentence(s). Based on what he has shown us in relation to Jeter’s home HR totals and ISO, I don’t think anyone is ready to seriously question Jeter’s ability to continue to play and be productive—not when he’s close to being a 5-win player at the age of 35.
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19 Responses to A Derek Disagreement
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TIQ IQ
What happened to Andy Shive, the pitcher who did so well at Staten Island last year?
Did he have some kind of surgery?
Does anyone think the Yankees will offer Jeter more then a 1 year deal going forward? I think all 3 of Mo, Po and Jete will retire after the 2011 season together.
Yeah I expect him to get a 3 year deal with a club option for the 4th… I think Mo will probably retire after his contract ends but I really see Jeter moving to LF and playing right up to 40 maybe retiring at 39, him and Mariano are about 3 or 4 year apart in age so I don’t think them retiring together is very likely. Posada will be the one that is tricky to decide when he leaves because as a catcher he is breaking down before out eyes, but his bat is still strong and would be even better if he were a full time DH so I think it depends on how much DH time he gets going forward and how well he thinks he can still hit.
I don’t see why he should be moved though, especially if his defense has gotten better at SS. Also, I don’t think the Yankees will ever move him. If he’s going to resign with the team, barring a terrible collapse in his defense, he’ll be their SS until he retires (probably in 2015).
LMAO! Jeter playing SS for the Yankees is 2015 is ABSURD! The comedy is priceless thank you!
If he can still hit and field, it could happen. He’ll definitely get a 3-year extension, which should take him to 2013 and if he wants to keep playing, which I think he will, the Yankees will have to sign him for the swan song (probably a 1-year deal through 2014). Obviously, he’ll DH quite a bit around that time or he may lose playing time if there’s another SS in the system. In 2014, Jeter will turn 40. Omar Vizquel did it and I think you could see it again with Jeter. I didn’t say he’d be the SS through 2015, rather that he would retire prior to that season.
He’s the face of baseball and I think fans underestimate just how eager the Yankees will be to keep him on the team.
At best the Yankees give Jeter a 1 year deal with a mutual option. Jeter does not want to play for another team and the Yankees owe him nothing.
Never going to happen, ever. He will get a three year deal, because his value is still through the roof. There is no reason for him to get less than Posada and Mo. None.
If the Yankees offered him a 1-year deal, I can guarantee you that he’d have no problem leaving and that he would see it as an insult. The Red Sox are looking for a SS, I’m sure they’d love to have him.
I’m going to go WAY out on a limb here…and guess that Jack Moore sleeps with a Bill James (Roid Sox Fan) Almanac under his pillow at night..AND that he is a card-carrying member of ROID Sox Nation.
Haha.
You could give J P Riccardi a run for the dumbest GM in all of Baseball! There is NO way in HELL the Yankees give Jeter a 3 year deal with an option. I can’t stop laughing your killing me here.
We ask that you please respect other posters.
Also, if you don’t think the Yankees won’t be willing to give Jeter a 3-year extension, then you’re really not paying attention. Because of his improved defense, Jeter is having his best season since his near MVP year in 2006. With the way he has been hitting in Yankee Stadium and in light of his defensive renaissance, you could see Jeter put up ’09 numbers in 2010. If that’s the case, do you think that Jeter will accept a 1-year deal to stay with the team? He wants to get 3,000 hits and will have deserved a 3-year deal. He’ll get one, too, especially since there will be dozens of teams clamoring to sign him if the Yankees don’t. The Yankees will give him what he wants. Hank Steinbrenner practically said as much just a year ago.
Yup, on all accounts. I would be shocked if he does not get a 3 year deal. He probably will have earned it- they guy can still hit, which means that even if his power numbers drop, his on base ability plus his newly good defense plus his status as an all time Yankee make him a solid investment.
Moshe at best the Yankees go year to year with Jeter. Why should they do anything else? To many get caught up in romanticizing Jeter. Yes he is a great player but as an older player he could easily have a career ending injury. Do you really think the Yankees of today would give Posada the deal he got? I don’t so I don’t think Jeter will get that kind of deal either.
I hate to talk in absolutes, but there is no way he gets less than two years, and I would be surprised if he did not get three. He is a shortstop still in great shape playing the best defense of his life, who is still a .380 + OBP guy. He has incredible value, and there is no way he accepts a year by year thing.
Yea, if he was actually declining, maybe then I’d agree. But, he’s not. He’s actually a better player this year. The defensive issue was huge. If he had kept playing the way he was in 2007, I could see them letting him go. But he’s not, and he’ll stay on the team for at least another 3 years.
Maybe you should tell him that as he brought my mother into play on a different thread.
LOL, okay everyone—let’s all be adults here.
No name-calling and, as always, moms are off limits.