With Sergio Mitre pitching tonight and Chien-Ming Wang suffering a setback, the question flitting around Yankees Universe is whether the Yankees would be better served by having Phil Hughes move back to the rotation. While many like myself believe that a starter is almost always more valuable than a reliever, this is not a slam dunk decision. Let us look at the numbers (Disclaimer: If my numbers are off, feel free to tell me why in the comments).
Phil Hughes thus far as a starter, in 34.2 innings as a starter, has been worth 2.1 runs above replacement, or RAR. As a reliever, in 21.1 innings, he has a RAR of 7.4. What this means is that he has been 3 times as valuable as a reliever than a starter thus far, despite a lesser number of innings. While he is likely to get a bit worse as a reliever and was showing some solid signs of improvement as a starter, this is a pretty stark difference.
Now, let us make some assumptions to try and determine what his value might be in each role going forward. Hughes at his current pace is likely to pitch about 35 innings in relief the rest of the way, and would likely get maximum 80 innings in the rotation. Extrapolating what he has done thus far would mean 5 RAR as a starter and close to 13 as a reliever. Rather than just assume the same level of performance, I am going to pick three players in each role whose stats Hughes might be expected to reproduce, to get an idea of the possible value he might have. All the starters are at about 80 IP, and the relievers at 35 innings or so. Because RAR is a context driven stat, this is really only giving us a rough estimate, but it should be sufficient to make our point.
Starters
Randy Wells: 3.00 ERA, 18 RAR
Jake Peavy: 3.97 ERA, 17.6 RAR
Glen Perkins: 4.75 ERA, 15.2 RAR
Relievers
Joe Nathan: 1.24 ERA, 15.2 RAR
Manny Delcarmen, 2.31 ERA, 6.2 RAR
Octavio Dotel: 3.28 ERA, 5.1 RAR
As I said above, this is a very inexact science, but it gives us a rough approximation of what Hughes’ value might be for the remainder of 2009 in either role. What have we learned thus far?
1) If Hughes retains his current level of performance in both roles, he is more valuable as a reliever.
2) If he pitches decently as a starter and slightly worse than he currently is as a reliever, he is more valuable as a starter by a bit.
3) If he pitches really well as a starter, he could be Joe Nathan and he would still probably be more valuable as a starter.
Now, this is all without applying context. Let us now apply what e have found to the Yankees’ reality. Unless Brian Cashman makes a trade, I would guess that the choice the Yankees have is to have Mitre in the rotation and Hughes in the bullpen, or Hughes in the rotation and keep Tomko in the bullpen once Marte returns, or put Hughes in the rotation and call up Melancon. Let us compare three scenarios in terms of RAR.
Scenario 1: Hughes in rotation, Tomko in pen
Hughes: Let’s peg him for about 13 RAR, just because I hate to make major assumptions about improvements.
Tomko: In his last 35 innings of relief work, he is at -5.3 RAR.
Total RAR: 7.7
Scenario 2: Hughes in Rotation, Melancon in Pen
Hughes: 13 RAR
Melancon: I would say that Robertson’s 2008 is a fair comp. 3.4 RAR.
Total RAR: 16.4 RAR
Scenario 3: Mitre In Rotation, Hughes In Pen
Hughes: He is likely to get hit eventually, and expecting Joe Nathan from him is a bit much. I would peg him at about 9.5 RAR.
Mitre: A decent comp would be Rich Harden: 5.06 ERA in NL Central. RAR of 5.7.
Total RAR: 15.2 RAR
What does this say to me? Firstly, Brett Tomko needs to be off the team. Second, I would say that the numbers suggest that Hughes may be a bit more valuable to the team going forward in the rotation. However, considering that stretching him out might take some time and his excellent bullpen work seems to have buoyed the team’s confidence, this seems to be a very difficult decision.
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18 Responses to Why Moving Hughes Back To Rotation Is Not A Slam Dunk
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I see one problem with using a relative stat like RAR is that you wouldn’t be replacing Hughes with Tomko as far as leverage innings. Instead of the 8th being taken care of by Hughes, one of Coke/Bruney/Marte/Aceves will be pitching instead. Thus, their RAR will increase more quickly due to higher leverage situations assuming that they pitch well in those situations.
In the end, I’d assume that we’ll only lose about 1 or 2 RAR from the mastery that is Hughes in the bullpen to a lesser reliever but we could pick up 6 or more in the rotation from Mitre to Hughes. Figure that Hughes pitches like this year’s Brad Penny (I’m setting my sights low) and Mitre is last year’s Darrel Rasner (does anybody expect more?). If you adjusted their RAR for 80 IP, you’d get Hughes at 14.76 vs Mitre at 8.6.
Is that a big difference? Not really that huge but it would give them a chance to get another 50 innings out of Hughes this year. I think we’ve seen this season with Joba that young pitchers need to build up stamina to survive the season and it’d be nice to have Hughes end up with 150 IP on the season rather than 90.
I don’t think RAR calculates for the high leverage situations. I may be wrong, but if true, while your point has some validity, the overall RAR numbers would suggest that the difference between Hughes in rotation and in bullpen is not huge.
In regard to the second point, he has already pitched 150 IP in his career in a season. His limit should be 180 next season regardless.
Yeah I know he’s done it before but that was 2006 or something wasn’t it? I realize it’s cool as per the Verducci rule to allow him to get to 180 innings health-wise but I’d like to see him come somewhat near it or he might get to be a bit tired down the stretch. I mean it’ll have been 4 years since he threw over 100 IP if they don’t let him loose this season. I’m no doctor or expert but you think that would be a large jump for a young guy.
That’s fair. I guess we will only be able to judge the Yankees on this one next season.
when you calculate the difference in runs above replacement and the difference is slight (not to mention fairly likely to be a gain), I think the net result of not moving Hughes may be only that his development is set back.
What do you mean by development? The cutter seems to be a pitch he has feel for, regardless of how often he uses it. The changeup does not seem to be something he will ever pick up regardless. Rather, it is just the innings, and most articles I have seen suggest that his previous high of 146 should set him up for 180 next year, a number he is doubtful to exceed anyhow.
Well he’s proven he can get major league hitters out the first time through the order. He now has to learn to mix some other pitches in once guys get a look at him three or four times and still be effective. He can’t do that pitching to three guys at a time.
Hughes will be the yankees closer in 2-3 years.He was born to relieve and if you listen to his interviews on the subject, he knows it too.
Melancon will get it done this time around, Coke is a very good Lefty in the pen who can give you the 8th inning also if needed.He’s had it up to 95 this season.
I’m not sold on Robertson.If he can totally control his curveball, maybe but his 91 mph straight heater is hittable for the better teams.
If Bruney gets healthy and back to 95-96, and Marte is decent, pen is great.
I think Mike Dunn the lefty is going to be a very good reliever also.He’s throwing harder as a reliever.
He’s actually said recently that he knows he is a starter. People said the same thing about Joba. Hughes was born to pitch, not to close.
What I mean by development is using all of his pitches to get hitters out like a starter has to (as opposed to throwing gas for one inning-occasionally two innings.) Starters develop by starting.
You didn’t listen carefully.He said he likes both.He said he doesn’t look at it as a dollars issue like some players (starters make more) and he isn’t counting pennies, just wants to make enough to support a family.That sounds like a guy more than willing to relieve.He said he feels like he’s a starter because he has been all of his life but likes relieving and wants to help the team any way he can.DIFFERENT ANIMAL THAN JOBA.
So tell me, why should he be a reliever? Long term, do you think he really provides more value in the bullpen?
Phil as a starter is worth more to the team in the long run. He has three good(+) pitches and his fastball at 92+ (as a starter)…he is a starter! Next year we will see a better all-round pitcher after being in the BP.
He has learned a lot from the time he has had in the BP…hopefully enough to be a 2/3 starter, next year. Keep him in the BP .
I’m not sure but I do know he was far from spectacular as a starter and if he has closer ability and Mariano is gone, why not?
DOn’t Red SOx have a similat player in Papelbon in the pen?
Of course if they’ve ruined Wang with their stupidity then it’s tougher but if Joba keeps throwing 96 as a starter behind AJ and CC, and Wang returns to being Wang, you have the luxury of keeping Hughes in the pen.
Let’s assume Bruney doesn’t get healthy, I think Hughes MUST stay in the pen.
David Robertson just isn’t over powering.
Of course if Melancon is great, that’s a different story.
Can always sign a free agent. Hughes has three good pitches and good stamina. Not sure why he should be limited.
Mariano was a starter too.
Either way, fine but I have a hunch he stays in the pen unless Wang is done and can’t pitch next year.
IGAWA IS GETTING THE SHAFT.Are they trying to force him to go back to Japan and forget the contract?
He’s a lefty and was lights out again tonite!
Hughes is going to be a number 1 starter. You move his one horrific start and he was pitching to a 3.9 ERA. He had regained his good fastball because its the first time in two years he’s been healthy. He finally has his arm strength back. Now he has his confidence and top level command. He’s going to a top of the line starting pitcher. It probably won’t happen this year, but it will happen.
I doubt it.When he starts, he throws a straight 92-93 MPH fastball.No big deal.