Cliff Lee was traded this afternoon for the following package:
Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson — the likely heir apparent to Victor Martinez — and shortstop Jason Donald will be sent to Cleveland.
Philadelphia has 3 top 25 type prospects (Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor) and one prospect pitching incredibly well in the majors (J.A. Happ), and gave up none in the deal for Lee and Ben Francisco. An equivalent package from the Yankees might be Austin Jackson, Austin Romine, Zach McCallister, and Dellin Betances. While Cliff Lee is not Roy Halladay’s equal, he is a front of the rotation starter signed cheaply through next season. What does this tell us about him?
It confirms what I have been saying for a while, and what Steve illustrated in this column:
So in concluding, the framework of a deal seems to include one top flight minor leaguer, surrounded by filler of various levels of floors and ceilings. Including more than that can contribute to getting you fired, just ask Bill Bavasi. A GM will do well if he brings back a good everyday player for a top flight pitcher, as many of the GM’s trading these pitchers failed to do so.
Media members like Jim Callis, Peter Abraham, and Michael Kay have been advocating packages that include two of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Jesus Montero. These packages never include two players of that caliber (top 10 prospect types), and often do not have even one, as the Lee trade illustrates. Giving up two of those players would be a travesty. Thankfully, Brian Cashman is not that stupid.
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27 Responses to What The Lee Trade Proves About A Halladay Deal
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TIQ IQ
The big difference is that the Indians were inclined to trade and the Jays just don’t know what they are doing and are asking for the bank!
This is an awful trade by the Indians. I can’t believe that they would give up such a good pitcher for so little. I would actually have been very happy if the Yankees did that trade that you outlined to get Cliff Lee.
I agree, Matt. To be honest, the Indians should have gotten more. They really didn’t do themselves any favors here.
With the Phillies out, one less team is interested in Halladay. The demand is less, so his price just went down.
If the Yankees do decide to bid for him, then I would build the deal around Jesus Montero. As I said in response to an earlier post, he plays a position at which the Yankee organization has enormous depth (with more added this year), and Romine is likely to be ready at roughly the same time as Montero would be. Romine isn’t the hitter that Montero is, but he should be a solid bat. The rest of a deal would be decent filler, no one of the Hughes or Chamberlain quality.
I’ve gone back and forth on the wisdom of this, but as Obi-Wan says, the trade deadline has a powerful effect on the weak-minded. And I’m weak-minded when I think about front-of-rotation starters without disturbing my current rotation…
NO NO NO NO NO to building the deal around Montero! You don’t trade a 19 year old who could develop into a Major power hitter when at the very worse he has no postion and is in the mold of a right handed David Ortiz DHing and jacking HRs. Halladay is 32 now say we re-sign him to a 6 year deal which has him pitch to retirement at the age of 40 you have to deal with him from age of 38-40 where he won’t be worth much more than a 4 starter, and from 35-37 He will no longer have ace stuff but will pitch at the level of a good 3 but at that point the rotation will be an aging Burnett an old Halladay and an over 30 Sabathia. Making the real shot at a world series a two or three year window including this year when even with him there is garauntee of getting to the world series let alone winning it and you are willing to trade the entire future for that?
I would had made the deal for Lee that Moshe points out in any minute.
I would also build the Halladay package around Montero, but no Hughes, Joba or Ajax in the deal. I would add one of Z-Mac or Nova, one of Melancon or Robertson or one of Bleich or Betances. Anybody else could go, except Romine (no use of giving 2 catchers away).
Lets say we expand a Halladay deal to include some payroll relief with Alex Rios. We need an outfielder, and will have an even bigger need next season when Damon and Matsui leave. To attempt to recreate what the Phillies just did with the Indians, we could do a 6-2 package but retain our top guys. It could look like this:
Blue Jays send-Roy Halladay and Alex Rios
Yanks send-Austin Jackson, Zachary McCallister, Mark Melancon, Manny Banuelos, Cervelli (or Romine), Dave Robertson (or Jon Albaladejo).
That’s a decent package, just not any top tier guys. Might even be overpaying when you consider Rios’ contract.
Considering his defense, Rios really does not have a terrible contract. If I were a Jays fan and JP took a lesser package to get rid of Rios, I would be livid. Wells on the other hand….
Definitely. Rios was worth 5.5 WAR last year. He’s valuable. His defense this year hasn’t been as good, but I don’t think it’s representative of a decline.
If the Yankees could get that deal, I would do it in a heartbeat. I don’t think that’s overpaying at all (it might be underpaying). Rios’ is having a down year, but he’s starting to turn it up in the second half. Plus, he’d be a great defensive addition considering what we currently have.
SO no one thinks a power hitter with his entire career ahead of him is worth squat in comparison to an older pitcher only getting older? So when Halladay has an ERA in the 4s at 38 and Montero is popping 30-40 a year and we have no rings to show for it we will have to reevaluate this trade and see how wrong we were. If 28-34 is the prime of a pitchers career we would be resigning him to a deal right when he turns 34 and has nowhere to go but down.
and popping those homers against us, I agree the Jays ask for Montero, you hang up. Also seem that people are forgetting that Roy would be a year and a half rental, do you really mortgage the future for a year and a half? I wouldnt, that’s just my opinion.
From Dave Cameron:
“Put simply, the Indians should have done better than this or just kept Lee. For a +5 win pitcher, they got quantity over quality, and all four of the guys they acquired come with pretty significant question marks. Carrasco’s probably the best prospect of the bunch (his upside is lower than Knapp’s, but the risk is much, much lower), but none of these guys are premium, high value guys.
Sorry Cleveland – you got hosed here. This is just not a good deal for the Indians in any way, shape, or form. Ruben Amaro just cleaned Mark Shapiro’s clock on this trade.”
I think the Indians just decided they are better off with young players than they are keeping anyone who won’t be around in 3 or 4 years when they have a shot to make another run. If that is the case I feel bad for the fans of Cleveland because they just admitted they plan on losing for a while.
I’m surprised though. The Dodgers probably would have offered more than the Phillies did for Lee.
Sorry but, I don’t make a deal for Halladay, if I have to give up the (top) players mentioned, plus sign him to a long term contract. If he were 28/29…maybe but, not at his age (as pointed out above). I still like going after a very good BP pitcher…good flexibility.
I would love to see what the Indians turned down to get to this deal…
I, too, am interested in what was offered to them. I think the Yankees could have beat this package easy without giving up Hughes, Joba or Montero.
Yeah and getting Ben Francisco back would allow the Yankees to trade Jackson with out feeling terrible because at least they would be getting a young outfielder who can play now. I didn’t like the idea of getting Lee because of Hughes or Joba being in the deal but the deal you outlined probably isn’t far off from working if this one did… however I think maybe the Indians wanted more from the Yankees than from Philies because we ended up taking Sabathia however petty that might be.
Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova for Roy Halladay and Alex Rios is a deal I think I would do at this point. You lose hughes from the bullpen but with Joba headed that after about 7 more starts you replace him in the pen and replace Joba in the rotation with Halladay, and Rios adds defense, Cody Ransom gets DFA’d and Hinske becomes the 3rd baseman on days Alex gets off or at DH, Rios lessens the loss of Jackson and Romine you can lose as long as you have Montero. Anyone do it? Anyone think the Jays even listen?
I only put Nova in because I am not sure where Mcallister is with his “arm fatigue” to know if he would pass a physical.
So did this anonymous scout watch tonight’s game? 8 shut out innings and only 2 maybe 3 walks…Joba has looked exactly like what we wanted all year since the all star break and is pitching like an ace 2 runs over his last 3 starts and he has gone further in every start(6 2/3, 7, 8).
thats the thing make me anger!!!if the negotiations were make with the yankees mr. shappiro ask the yankees to make a deal for lee he ask phil hughes,joba, jesus montero,ajax and arome and why him dont ask for best boys in te farm? answer me man!!!!!!
I really don’t think the Yankees wanted to make a deal for Lee if they were going to pay for a guy they would make a deal for Halladay. As to why the Indians didn’t ask for at least one of the top prospects invilved with the Halladay deal I don’t know, maybe they just decided four for two was better than one good prospect and two low prospects for just Lee. I really doubt the Indians were asking for Hughes, Joba, Montero, Jackson and Romine but they probably asked for Hughes or Joba and then it goes back to the Yankees only giving up Hughes for Halladay, and really I think that Hughes has probably already been talked about with the Jays in trade talks and in my opinion Montero not Hughes is what is keeping the Yankees from talking further. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 31st comes and Halladay is still with the Jaysif the Yankees make one last call and offer a take it or leave it deal right before the deadline with Hughes involved but not Montero or Chamberlain.
i said in the phillies farm. sorry…
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR THE CRYSTALBALL MAN.. DID YOU SEE PHIL HUGHES AND JOBA CHAMBERLAIN IN THE AGE OF 32 YEAR IN THE BALL? HOW YOU SEE THE KIDS? IF YOU SEE..
Not to be rude dude but I can barley read any of that so i’m not sure what you’re talking about…