OK, we finally have something that appears to be an official asking price of some sort. George King of the NY Post has the story.
ANAHEIM, Calif. — From the moment Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi said he would entertain offers for Roy Halladay, the Yankees believed the price would be too steep for them and that being in the same division would drive the Blue Jays to ask for more than they would from others.
According to several industry sources, the Yankees were correct: The Blue Jays will want more than the Yankees have to give.
“They are kicking the tires, but they don’t have enough,” said a source who believes the Blue Jays eventually will trade Halladay for prospects.
Even if the Yankees included outfielder Austin Jackson and catcher Austin Romine — prospects clubs were told were off-limits before Halladay entered the picture — there might not be enough because the major league-ready arms the Blue Jays would ask for are Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, last night’s starter against the Angels.
Of the five teams that are interested — Boston, Yankees, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Philadelphia — the defending World Series champion Phillies are considered the favorites because they have a bevy of young talent, led by pitchers Carlos Carrasco, J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek. Catcher Lou Marson also is thought of very highly.
This is consistent with what we’ve heard elsewhere in bits and pieces, so I’ll assume it’s correct. A deal would need to consist of Hughes (or Joba) plus Austin Jackson and Austin Romine. Let’s break down this potential deal for a minute.
-Losing Austin Romine wouldn’t bother me all that much. We have a surplus at the catching position and Jesus Montero is both closer to the bigs and has a far higher ceiling. Gotta give something to get something, and our 2nd best prospect at a position of depth is something you can’t go nuts about.
-Austin Jackson is a fine prospect at a position of need for the Yanks next year, he has great athleticism and should hit for average and some power. But we have a CF we can live with in Brett Gardner/Melky Cabrera, and none of these three players project to hit for enough power to be corner OFers. Its possible A-Jax will eventually be a 15-20 HR guy, but that’s years away, if ever. So we’re going to have to go outside the organization anyway to fill the need for a corner OF spot(s) for the next few seasons to replace the production we were getting from Matsui/Damon. As our roster stands currently, you’d wind up with three CFs fighting for playing time in 2010, so its fair to say that one of them is expendable.
-Now for the tough one. Hughes or Joba. Lets dispose of Hughes quickly, I love Phil but his ceiling according to most scouts is that of a #2 starter, not an ace. Joba has the potential to be a #1, but even if Joba Chamberlain was to reach his ceiling as a starter (50/50 at best) he still wouldn’t be Roy Halladay. Joba could be a #1, Halladay is a #1A. Roy Halladay is one of the top 2-3 pitchers in Baseball. We all fall in love with guys that throw the ball 100 MPH, but its important to note that the best pitchers in the game (Halladay, Santana, Lincecum) don’t throw that hard and never did. The top pitchers understand the subtleties involved in getting hitters out, which often involve the hitters getting themselves out. At 32, Roy is still at an age where he still has some gas left in the tank.
-Even if Joba reached his ceiling of being a Josh Beckett-type, Roy Halladay is a better pitcher than Beckett and has been for most of his career. He’s been both better and more consistent. If anyone disagrees, just look at both player’s ERA+ over the past decade.
Roy Halladay
Halladay’s average year since 2001 is as good or better than Beckett’s best year, which he only achieved once. Doc’s ERA+ has been north of +143 for 7 of the past 9 years, topping out at an insane +184 in 2005. The chances of Joba ever doing that once, much less for most of a decade, is slim even if he reached his ceiling. Again, Joba’s MLB comp has only had an ERA+ north of 140 once in his 9-year career. And the reason it’s called a ‘ceiling’ is because most never reach it.
-Another thing to throw in the mix is AJ Burnett had his best season of his career last year under the tutelage of Roy Halladay. The effect a guy like Halladay could have on the rest of the staff is something that can’t be underestimated. David Cone filled that role on the championship teams of the late 90′s. And for anyone hung up on Halladay’s age, it should be noted that David Cone was 32 years old when he was traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the Yanks in 1995.
I try to do it for Hughes, but to be honest I’d do it either way. I expect the Yanks to claim this package is far too high a price, which is the right thing to say publicly whether they believe it or not. If they were to say ‘I can live with that!’ the price goes up the very next day. Remember how the Yanks said Hughes was off limits in the Santana deal, then Hank gave in, and the price became Hughes+ IPK the next day. Why? Because it was November, and Twins GM Bill Smith had no intention of dealing Santana until January. I would imagine that Blue Jays GM JP Riccardi will wait until July 31st to see if anyone gets desperate. Right now, of the teams that are rumored to be involved (Philly, Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox) none of them are.
But a move like this puts the Yanks over the top. As much as I’m all on board with the youth movement, the Yanks are a now team that’s all about winning championships.
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In previous posts, I have suggested the problem is not the talent the Yankees would surrender but the long-term cost of Halladay and its implications for roster flexibility 4-5 years down the road. I assume that Halladay will want, possibily insist on an extension. If so, his contract will go beyond 2010. How many years are the Yankees prepared to give? If Halladay goes to free agency after 2010, I believe he could easily receive a 4-year deal, taking him to age 38. Should the Yankees be forced to give him that kind of extension to get him to accept a trade, then we are looking at a roster filled with many aging core players in about four years — A-Rod, Jeter (assumign he re-signs), C.C., A. J., and Tex. None of those players is likely to give you value on the field that justifies his salary.
Moreover, Cashman has made it clear he wants to build a team that is younger and more athletic. So long as he is calling the shots, I do not see the Yankees tying their hands with another long-term commitment.
Putting all this aside for the moment, my one difference with Steve is that I lean toward dealing Joba rather than Hughes. I think Hughes has a better chance to reach his ceiling at this point, even if it is not quite Joba’s. Hughes has already shown he can deal with adversity, which Joba has yet to do. That is an important threshold for a young player. The analysis of the other players — Romine and Jackson — is exactly correct. In my view, Montero is the sole untouchable in the organization at this point.
“my one difference with Steve is that I lean toward dealing Joba rather than Hughes.”
That’s fair, I was just making the case for the more tantalizing trade piece, which Joba still is despite his recent woes. If you can make the case for Joba, Hughes is an even easier decision.
Phil Hughes is actually more similar to Halladay than Joba is as a pitcher, and could benefit more from his presence. Both Hughes and Halladay have outstanding control, Joba is more about raw stuff. Trade Joba and keep Phil and I could easily see a scenario where Phil becomes ‘Doc Jr’ and Joba becomes yet another great arm that never reaches his potential. But even if he does, he still wont be Halladay.
I disagree. I wouldn’t be devastated by that trade, but I would not love it. The Yankees have made these ”slam dunk” pitching moves over the last decade and they have almost always regretted them. I know that Halladay seems different, but you yourself discussed the salary implications of getting Doc last week, and I’m not sure what has changed. He is still going to want Sabathia money per year, and is not going to sign for less. Having 60-65 million a year in 3 pitchers will be terrible for flexibility.
Actually, we are still in accord. I don’t do the deal because of the long-term salary implications, as I said last week, and nothing has changed on that front. My last comment was more of a hypothetical about the value of the various pieces.
Roy Halladay is dangerously close to the time when pitchers decline. He’s 32 years old. Locking up big money for this guy will prevent us from doing other things in the future. Like trying to sign King Felix. Hughes or Joba for that makes no sense to me. I am really tired of this quick fix crap. We should trade for a back of the rotation starter to eat some innings. That’s it.
If the trade is Joba/Hughes+Romine+Jackson+a new contract for Halladay, I hate it. If that’s the trade they wanted to make, they should not have signed Burnett.
Forget the “new contract” stuff. Everyone seems to be adding that in by themselves, but according to Ken Rosenthal, Kim Jones, Jon Heyman, and just about everyone else I’ve heard discuss a Halladay deal he DOES NOT want an extension. Its not all about the $$ for him. He wants to be traded somewhere that he can win, he will see if he likes it there and if he does, he will sign an extension when his contract is due to come up in 2010.
We hear that about a lot of players. The team that gets him will want to know they are getting a long term guy before they trade three top 100 prospects.
No, you’re misunderstanding this. The time when he has leverage to ask for an extension would be before he was traded. He has a no-trade clause and could nix any deal if he didn’t get an extension. But he’s not saying that. He’s saying that “He just wants to go somewhere he can win” with no strings attached. That means he’s for real.
I know, but teams are unlikely to take him at his word that he will ink an extension later. Cashman will want a guarantee that he is not giving up Hughes or Joba, plus Jackson and Romine, for 1 and a half season.
I am with DaveinMD: The Yankees should focus instead on a back-of-rotation, innings-eater type as the trade deadline approaches, someone who can give about league-average performance and consistently go 6-7 innings. The rotation now suffers because Pettite and Chamberlain do not go deep into games, exposing the weaker bulpen arms to overuse.
What about Washburn or Meche?
Meche would be a good move. Washburn won’t be available. Seattle is very much in the race.
I don’t completely disagree with the reasoning, though I vote to keep the kids. My problem with the argument is the Beckett comp. Beckett comps are always specious b/c he’s a guy who tends to drift aimlessly through most regular seasons, only stepping it up in big games. Therefore, his regular season numbers never approximate his actual value.
It sounds like the cognescenti here don’t believe those 4 players really have a whole lot of projection left. But I think I have to pull out the Johan Santana argument here. I’m not sure you can expect better value per dollar over the next 5 years from Halladay than Hughes or even Joba. If you have to lock up Halladay to a long term deal I’d just as soon see what I have with the prospects and then throw that money at a Tim Lincecum or Cole Hamels when they might hit the market (several years from now, south of 30 yrs old). If there is no extension in play then you’ve just traded 3-4 of the team’s best prospects for a 1 1/2 yrs of a Halladay, which I could never advocate.
Now if they were willing to take some higher ceiling arms that might be further away (Banuelos/Brackman/McAllister.) then I would be much more on board.
No to this kind of trade it harks back to a bad era and the same kind of thinking that could bankrupt the organization in the long run. At 32 you are playing with fire.
Sigh… pigeon-holing Joba as a Beckett type(not that Beckett is bad), just because they throw hard… Joba has shown a good third pitch and even flashed that change-up that made the Sox look bad.
If we have to trade Hughes and Romine in a Halladay deal I would do what is neccsary not to include Jackson, I think whoever gets “Doc” is giving up 4 players to do so and in that case you could use two players to make up for Austin Jackson in this proposed deal… I was thinking Hughes, Romine, Mcallister and Mark Melancon for Halladay the Jays get a starter for right now a starter of the future a catcher of the future and a middle reliever who is MLB ready now and could possibly be a set up man with a little development.