Many Yankees fans have suggested that the Bombers take back Vernon Wells in a Roy Halladay trade in order to lower the cost of Halladay in terms of prospects. Although I have my doubts about Toronto accepting a non-premium package just to get salary relief, let us assume for a moment that they would accept a lesser package if Wells was included. While this sounds like a decent idea, Sky Kalkman over at BTB gives a bit of insight
into why taking on Wells might be an epic disaster:
That’s not a typo: Wells’ contract is on pace to cost Toronto $92M more than paying a player of his recent caliber the going free agent rate. If we compare that to Roy Halladay’s +$23M figure, it means the Jays would need to include four Roy Halladays along with Vernon Wells and receive nothing in return in order to make it a fair deal. J.P., got any more Halladays lying around?
Some will argue that Vernon Wells is better than this. Maybe he got a little lazy after after signing the big contract and breaking his wrist surely didn’t help his production. How much would he need to rebound in order to simply offset the value of one Roy Halladay? That is, how many WAR per season would he need to average throughout the rest of his contract to have his trade value be worth -$23M? Open Excel, change numbers, say voodoo spell, boom: 3.0 WAR. That would be quite a rebound. And remember, that’s just to make fair a trade in which the Jays send away Wells and Halladay in return for nothing.
What if Wells rebounded enough to justify the contract on his own, relative to what you’d be willing to pay him as a free agent? Well, that would take 3.9 WAR per season through 2014, a level of production Wells has hit twice and exceeded once. Even at that level of production, he would have zero trade value.
That is pretty damning. Wells is worse than Melky at the plate and fields as poorly as Johnny Damon. His awful defense would likely mean that the Yankees would have him replace Damon in left next year, a position where his suddenly anemic bat will be even more out of place. The marginal difference in value that the Yankees get from adding Roy Halladay to the rotation over Joba, Wang, or Pettitte may actually be entirely eradicated by the loss in value that the Yankees would experience with Wells in left field. If the Yankees want Roy Halladay, they are going to have to give up some premium young talent. Vernon Wells should not be an option.
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4 Responses to Taking Back Vernon Wells
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TIQ IQ
Salary relief is going to be VERY important.More important than players.
Teams are hurting across the board.They were counting on the upper middle class and wealthy and those types are hurting like never before.
If you think those $300,000/yr couples with 2 kids who lives in NY and will be paying over 50% in taxes (including Obama’s healthcare reform)before real estate taxes on their homes which are sky rocketing (mine are in excess of $40,000) are going to still be paying 200/ticket making it a thousand dollar day at Yankee Stadium or any other Stadium, forget it.
The players are making too much money and revenues are shrinking quickly.
Owners have less personal wealth also.
Look at the mets, they got hit by MAdoff and the Real Estate market and they can’t sign any player.
NO team will take on Wells contract. NO team will take on half on Wells contract. Anyone believing this needs a LOBOTOMY!
The Halladay-plus-Wells scenario appears to be entirely a creation of the media, looking for something to write about before the trade deadline. I have yet to see anyone within the Toronto organization suggest that taking Wells would be a condition for getting Halladay. And for good reason — in this economy, NO TEAM WOULD BE STUPID ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A DEAL. Toronto is stuck with Wells, period. He has perhaps the worst contract in baseball, as several serious analysts have demonstrated.
Given that Cashman has shown little interest in trading for Halladay alone, why would he also want to take back Wells? Just to give up fewer prospects? Since Wells cannot play at an acceptable level in the outfield and weakens the team — almost akin to forcing the Yankees to play with a 24-man roster while every other team has 25 — he makes it less likely that the Yankees could win. Cashman has no reason to make such deal.
If you take Wells, there should be little compensation for Halladay.Just a couple of middling minor leaguers with some upside.