Fans are often afflicted by the “If I have not seen it, it does not exist” fallacy when attempting to evaluate athletes. Mike Francesa is convinced that Joba Chamberlain belongs in the bullpen, because he has seen his succeed as a reliever and struggle as a starter. Apparently, some major league talent evaluators have the same problem:
So, who has more value? That depends on whom you ask and who has seen them recently.
“I would want Hughes if I am dealing with the Yankees, because even though he has been good in the pen, he is a starter and Chamberlain is a reliever,” an NL talent evaluator said.
Another believed it was even because, “In my mind both are relievers.”
A third scout said because of Chamberlain’s upside he would take him but has been impressed with Hughes’ work out of the bullpen.
These scouts are clearly major league advance scouts who have never watched a minor league game ion which Chamberlain or Hughes pitched. If neither had ever pitched an inning out of the bullpen, this would not be a topic of discussion. No one ever profiled either of these guys as relievers, primarily because they have the stuff and stamina to start. Yet, because some people have seen them struggle as starters and thrive in the bullpen, they have already decided that these incredibly young pitchers would be best served by pitching in relief. The whole thing has reached a point of absurdity. There are no calls for the Rays to send David Price to the bullpen, or for the Dodgers to send Chad Billingsley back there. These are starting caliber arms, and wasting them in the bullpen would be criminal. Unless, of course, you ask Goose Gossage The Hitcher II: I’ve Been Waiting full
:
“For me, it’s a no-brainer,” Gossage told The Post, incredulous the Bombers insist on using Chamberlain as a starter instead of in the setup role in which he excelled during 2007.
“I look at ballgames that this guy could’ve impacted that they lost. I’m just shaking my head. I can’t believe it.
“This guy was their savior two years ago when they didn’t have a set-up guy. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs without Joba. He’d be the perfect [set-up] guy. If you could impact three or four ballgames a week instead of one … I think you’re wasting a tremendous talent.”
Firstly, Gossage creates a false dichotomy whereby he suggests that in the bullpen, Joba would be impacting 3 or 4 games a week. The odds of that happening are slim, as there are typically not 3-4 games a week that need to be “saved” in the 8th inning. Furthermore, he would be impacting fewer innings, and creating a position of weakness in the rotation. Finally, Goose references all the games that he could have impacted that they lost. The Yankees are 37-3 when ahead starting the 8th inning, and are 9-0 when tied starting the 8th. They have blown 3 games all season when leading starting the 8th, and one of those was blown by Mariano. Basically, there were two games that he might have impacted. The argument for Joba in the bullpen frequently is forced to turn to specious arguments not grounded in fact. Both of these guys deserve every chance to succeed in the rotation. Patience, Yankees fans.
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9 Responses to Scouts On Joba And Hughes
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TIQ IQ
What would these moronic scouts have said about Greg Maddox in his first year starting full time? His losing record and pitching only 155 innings with a 5.61 ERA would surely limit his future right?
Hey, you asked where you can find streaks W-L records in games where a team is leading, trailing or tied after a certain inning and such: http://presspass.mlb.com/pp_teamselect.asp
If Joba is going to throw a straight 89-92 fastball getting an occasional pitch into the mid 90′s, he must have better control of his breaking stuff.
it almost looks like they know what’s comming and stay away from the spinner in the dirt, which was his out pitch when he was throwing harder.
I still think kid is trying to stay healthy first and throw hard second, which could be a result of his mentoring from AJ Burnett or could be from fear left over from his shoulder injury of last year.
in either case, I doubt he suddenly uncorks them 98 just becuase you call him a reliever instead of a starter.he’s needed a good heater here and there in the 4th inning and still doesn’t throw it hard.
Spot on. This is exactly how I would diagnose Joba’s issues.
It’s reached the boiling point… I got the tommy gun… and somebody’s got to drive the whip…. we’re gonna get these Joba 2 the BP people…
I say its time for Girardi to do something drastic, if as you say Joba is afarid to throw hard but there is no injury, then in his next start if he falls below 94-he should be yanked immediately. Then in the post game giaradi should say “until he acts like a true power pitcher and stops being afarid of being hurt-he is of no value to the team”
You have to be JOKING right?
Excellent analysis of Joba. I think the break may help him a bit. Sometimes a few extra days off can work wonders.
The SP I’m actually concerned about is Pettitte. He’s always had a fairly small margin of error, and those kind of pitchers tend to lose it very quickly. We need someone ready to replace him if it all suddenly goes south.
Joba threw 93-97 at Nebraska and did the same coming up in the Yankees system for the short time after he was drafted and before he made his major league debut as a reliever… I think some of the velocity issues he has is with the new pitching stance that Eiland worked with Chamberlain on in the off season to help him “go further into games” it seems as if he is not driving off his back leg as much as he did in the past and that is where some of his velocity is going. Now this combined with his obvious fear of getting hurt again is what has led to him throwing 89-91 on average which is something he didn’t do at Nebraska or in A, AA, or AAA all of which he was a power pitching starter. This really falls on the pitching coach IMHO Eiland needs to devise a way to get more power into his pushing off from the back leg and if he can do that the mental aspect should come back when he is throwing 94 and 95 again.