Over at RAB, a few of us were having a spirited conversation about Peter Abraham’s suggestion that the Yankees give up Joba Chamberlain, Jesus Montero, and any two others not named Phil Hughes in a trade for Roy Halladay. One poster compared Halladay to Mike Mussina, who was about Halladay’s age when he joined the Yankees, and is in fact one of Doc’s “through current age” top comparable players. Commenter TSJC came through with the following numbers:
Mussina when acquired by the Yankees (32 years old):
Career: 129 ERA+, 1.175 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 200 IP and 4 CG per season
Fragile dvdrip 3 most recent seasons: 129 ERA+, 1.191 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 215 IP and 4 CG per season
Merlin and the Book of Beasts trailer
Halladay now (32 years old):
25th Hour ipod Sorry, Wrong Number rip New in Town aka Chilled In Miami the movie
Career: 132 ERA+, 1.201 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 160 IP and 3 CG per season
Jarhead move Oliver & Company rip 3 most recent seasons: 138 ERA+, 1.134 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 198 IP and 6 CG per season
Those numbers are extremely close, with Halladay possibly having a slight edge. However, Doc does have some injuries in his past, while Moose had been a picture of perfect health to that point. Now, Moose pitched well for the Yankees, especially in those first three years. However, they never won a championship with him despite initially adding him to a stacked, can’t miss rotation. I highly doubt that Yankees fans would give up Joba, Montero, and anyone else not named Hughes if I told them that they were getting the 7 years they got from Moose’s initial contract.
The fact is, nobody over the age of 30 is worth that much. Halladay is likely the second best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years, but he is really no better than Moose was when he joined the Yankees, and has a more suspect injury history. Moose was very good, but you expected more than one season with an ERA plus over 130 over the life of his initial Yankee contract. Per Fangraphs, his WAR from 2002-2008 was 31.1. That is very good but not something that Joba and Montero cannot reach collectively. Halladay’s ace type performance is in no way guaranteed.
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12 Responses to Roy Halladay = Mike Mussina
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TIQ IQ
I think Mussina is worth more – 40 extra innings a year (20 comparing the last three) is nothing to snuff at, and Halladay’s injury history isn’t exactly spotless (indeed, he missed a couple of starts this year).
I think people seriously underrate Mussina’s durability, in addition to everything else he gave. But then, I think that’s ultimately the point, and why I agree with you. Halladay would probably be good for 200 innings of ace-caliber pitching a year, max. Is that more valuable than 180 league-average innings of pitching next year, with ace-upside (from either Joba or Hughes), and a middle-of-the-order bat (regardless of position, but rarefied if from catcher) for four years after that? And then take into account that Halladay costs money, while Yankee prospects cost nothing.
It’s having two-thirds of a rotation (Hughes and Chamberlain) and one-third of a lineup (Montero, Jackson, Gardner/Cabrera) being dirt cheap that allows the flexibility to sign an A-Rod to a 10-year contract, a Sabathia to a 7-year contract, and a Teixeira to an 8-year contract.
I want nothing to do with trading for Halladay and everything to do with trading for a big left handed bat instead.
What big let handed bat do you have in mind and what position play for a team stuck at a lot of spots with veterans? Also why would we trade for a big left handed bat after getting Hinske, who while not great is left handed and taking up a spot on the roster for the rest for the year.
The only position player I would trade for is Justin Upton and that would never happen in a million years so don’t even make me dream….
I don’t buy the comparisons.
Smaller power pitchers like Mussina, Cone, Pedro etc. lose it quicker (almost overnight) in the mid to late 30′s than the bigger guys like Clemens and Halladay usually do.
Give Moose credit for his guile that last season but he clearly lost a foot off the heater pretty quickly in his mid 30′s.
The bigger guys also get injured quicker, and Halladay has had injuries in the past. I think those two things cancel, and the comparison is very apt.
Clemens lost his fastball pretty quickly and in fact was down to 91-93 on his fastball his last year in Boston before finally re finding his velocity (most likely in a needle) in Toronto So I wouldn’t use him comparison to any pitchers body breakdown over the years.
The only thing, though, is that Halladay’s numbers have changed dramatically since 2007. Halladay’s K/9 shot up in 2008 and it doesn’t look like it’s going down (it’s actually higher this year). He’s getting better with age. I’m not sure how that works with the comparison, but it is something that is very strange.
Generally huge fluxes in K/9 correct as quickly as they came- read that on Fangraphs this very day about Jon Lester. His overall performance has remained steady, and quite frankly, he has not been as good as CC Sabathia over the last three seasons. I am not sure that spending on another ace is the best use of resources. As Mussina shows, sometimes the ace does not pan out. If that happens, you are left still wanting an ace and without your prospects.
Although Lester’s velocity had gone up a couple mph from a couple of years ago, so that definitely contributed to his higher K rate.
Abraham is stupid. So glad he’s not the GM.
I’m sorry, but sometimes you have to look beyond the numbers. If you ask me if I want Halladay or Moose in their primes, it’s a no-brainer. Halladay has supreme control over all of his pitches and pitches deeper into games than Mussina and most other pitchers. I actually agreed with PeteAbe’s idea completely over on my blog.
Then I’m glad you aren’t the GM either. Trading the best hitting prospect we’ve had since Mantle, a top pitching prospenct who was dominant as a starter as recently as last year and another top prospect for a 32 year old pitcher who is likely to decline soon is stupid.