John Manuel over at BA compiled a list of “untouchable” prospects, players who are too valuable to their current clubs to be included in a deal. Jesus Montero made the list:
• Jesus Montero, c/dh, Yankees
Tapioca download Scouts who cover the Yankees organization are fond of saying the team over-values its own prospects, but the scouting consensus is that Montero is the real deal. He has premium raw power and pure hitting ability to go with it. If he can catch, he could have a Mike Piazza-esque career. More than likely, he’s New York’s future DH, and the Yankees’ asking price for him is prohibitive.
How good a hitter is Montero right now, as one of the youngest players in AA? Jim Callis had this to say:
Doug (NYC)
Based solely on his bat, how soon could Jesus Montero hold his own in the majors? What do you think his “slashline” would look like if he were promoted today?Jim Callis (2:22 PM)
He could probably hold his own in the majors offensively right now, hit around .250 with some power.
Wow. That is fairly high praise from a guy who is not quick to throw hyperbolic statements out there. Now the question is, should Montero be untouchable? This what our own Steve S. had to say last week
, riffing off an excellent BTB article on prospect valuation that I encourage you to check out:
download Halo Wars So according to his player valuation models, Jesus Montero ALONE would be overpaying Roy Halladay’s present market value to a team by approximately DOUBLE. This goes a long way toward explaining why players tend to go for far less than the rumors that get floated in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline.
Basically, sending Montero to the Jays for Halladay would be overpaying. While I am loathe to call any prospect untouchable, trading Montero would only make sense if you were getting a young superstar in return. Those are the kinds of players that rarely hit the trade market, suggesting that Montero may in practice actually be untouchable.
What do you think? Should Jesus Montero be untouchable?
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
18 Responses to Jesus Montero Untouchable?
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Untouchable Untouchable Untouchable!!!
I fully expect him to be the Yankees primary DH/backup catcher by mid season next year.
I say yes-I cant see the Yankees finding another young hitter like this and they need the power as at some point Posada will retire-andor Damon and Montero seems like a real star on the rise-how many 19 y/o are at double A? AND HOW MANY HAVE THIS TYPE OF ABILITY?
In my discussion with The Scout on a previous post, I mentioned that nobody is untouchable, but to trade a prospect like Montero (a top 5 prospect in all of baseball), it would have to be in a deal for a young superstar such as Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, Zack Greinke, etc, preferably a deal that would not completely gut the farm system. Since a deal such as that is unlikely to happen, for all intents and purposes, Montero is as close to untouchable as it gets.
Totally agree, Eric. Montero isn’t “untouchable,” but he’s as close as you can get and if there were an “untouchable” player in the organization, he’s it.
The definition of an “untouchable” is one you can “touch” only if you’re prepared to surrender one of your own untouchables. And save a position block, a personality conflict or a payroll problem (less likely in cost-controlled young talent) that opportunity does not come along very often.
I love him. Trade him for Halladay.
Let me expand. This team is made to win now. Yes Montero can get to the bigs within two years and he might even be great within 5 years. But he might also hit a ceiling and he might be limited to a DH role even if he becomes a great hitter. You may be talking about a top five prospect but you are trading him for a top 5 MLB player. Even if Montero pans out the core of the team will be gone by then. I am talking Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera all will be significantly older before Montero reaches his potential and may be out of baseball altogether. It sucks, I know, to lose a guy like Montero — a true gem. But with Halladay, we are on the odds on favorite to win the WS this year and next.
You are so wrong it’s not even worth discussing. This team is building one of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball going forward. When you have that going the future is bright without Halladay.
If Montero can’t stay behind the plate, it’ll get very interesting. I’ve always wondered why the Yankees don’t try him in the OF, but I’m assuming that they’re going to try to sneak his bat behind catcher. If he can’t play there, I’d expect them to try him in the OF because having him as a DH isn’t nearly as helpful. He has improved at catcher though, even if he has gone from horrible to just bad, defensively.
This is a team with huge salary commits that run well into Montero’s expected prime. It is also a team that anticipates being competitive year in and year out, and with a budding young nucleus in Cano, Joba and Hughes to go along with the big-ticket guys signed on for most of the next decade there is no reason they shouldn’t be. If you’re the Marlins or the D-Backs you can justify pulling out the stops to get to the WS, you know you can’t support the payroll to be a perennial contender. The Yanks don’t have that problem.
Do you realize that prime starts at age 27 for most hitters? If you did then you must know that Montero does not turn 27 until after Teixeira’s contract expires.
The more I’ve thought about it the more I like the idea of holding on to our key young players. Joba, Hughes, and Montero should not be used in any trade.
I still think we can win the WS this year without Halladay so why take the risk of having a bloated payroll while having to face the low cost talent we dealt?
When is the last time the Yankees have developed a hitting prospect at a premium position who not only hits for power but hits for contact? He is excelling in the minors right now and has not missed a step. He could be called up as early as the end of next year. He may be bad defensively but you can’t blame the Yankees for trying to give him every chance to succeed at catcher as his value as a player would skyrocket with his offensive numbers compared to being a DH or a corner outfielder.
Even can’t miss prospects don’t work out a great deal of the time. Halladay, barring injury (and he doesn’t have an extensive history of injuries) is an ace pitcher who has done it consistently in the best division in all of baseball. He guarantees you get deep into the playoffs. And if the Yanks win a WS I cannot see him not wanting to resign. The only reason not to trade Montero for Halladay is 1) Toronto wouldn’t make that deal straight up, and 2) payroll. If the Yanks get Halladay be prepared for a ton of off-season news calling for a salary cap.
Another reason is that Doc is 32 and the Yanks can win a World Series without him this year, while Montero and others have a shot to help them effectively and cheaply replace their aging guys and win in the future as well.
Money and age would make me reluctant on trading for him since the Yankees would have to give up prospects. If Felix Hernandez is available I wouldn’t mind trading for him as he is young and has shown tremendous development the past few seasons.
I love Montero’s stroke and just pure power, he is going to be a good player at some point in the near future and even if he struggles at the start with average he will still crush balls.
Unless the Yankees want a defencive catcher of Cervelli or Romines’ expertise, Montero should be the catcher in 2011 with Cervelli/Romine as back-up.
His defence is not real bad, it just isn’t as good as one would like to have behind the plate. He is working very hard to improve his game but, he has limited athleticism and hard hands. I think comparing him to Mike Piazza is about right but, Montero has a better arm.
Untouchable?…damn close!