I stumbled across this list today, and thought it would be instructive in terms of keeping a proper perspective about prospects who might be traded in a deadline deal. This is John Sickels top 20 Yankees’ prospects from 2006:
Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade B+
Jose Tabata, OF, B+
J. Brent Cox, RHP, B
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Eric Duncan, 3B-1B, B-
Tyler Clippard, RHP, B-
C.J. Henry, SS, B-
Eduardo Nunez, SS, B-
Austin Jackson, OF, C+
Christian Garcia, RHP, C+
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Matt DeSalvo, RHP, C+
Jeff Marquez, RHP, C+
Sean Henn, LHP, C+
Darrell Rasner, RHP, C+
Brett Gardner, OF, C+
Garrett Patterson, LHP, C+
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Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, C+Lance Pendleton, RHP, C+
Kevin Howard, 2B, C
T.J. Beam, RHP, C
Colter Bean, RHP, C
buy A Perfect World A cursory glance at the list shows two players currently helping the Yankees (Hughes, Gardner), and one who may help someday (Jackson). Otherwise, there seems to be plenty of filler, injured players, and guys who were traded and flopped with their new clubs.
The point of this exercise? Most prospects do not pan out. Baseball requires such physical precision that minor injuries can entirely derail a player’s career, and scouting in baseball is particularly difficult as a player’s skills often do not translate to higher levels of competition. It is the job of the GM to identify a position of organization strength (catcher, RHP) and deal from it to supplement the major league club, while retaining the guys that can actually help you down the line. This list shows that Brian Cashman is fairly good at this, as the only major leaguers on the list are still in the organization. Remember that when he trades your personal favorite for a bench guy or reliever next week.
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14 Responses to Discussion: Yankees Top Prospects From 2006
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I did a whole series of posts on these guys a month or two ago if you guys want to check it out. Mostly just looked at what they’re all up to now, but I came to the same basic conclusion.
Yeah, I would love to see it. Do you have a link to the stories?
http://mvn.com/pendingpinstripes/2009/06/where-are-they-now-2006-yankees-prospects-21-30.html
http://mvn.com/pendingpinstripes/2009/06/where-are-they-now-2006-yankees-prospects-11-20.html
http://mvn.com/pendingpinstripes/2009/06/where-are-they-now-2006-yankees-prospects-1-10.html
I used Baseball America’s top 30 though.
Fascinating list to review. It leads to several observations:
First, the list had a lot of low ceiling guys on it — Colter Bean, TJ Beam, Kevin Howard, et al. That may say more about Sickels’s approach, however, than about the quality of the organization.
Second, the list reflects the organization pre-Damon Oppenheimer and before Cashman had full control. Back then, the emphasis was on players deemed near-ready for major league service, rather than those who might need time to develop. However you slice it, though, the talent pool is weak. Duncan and Henry were first-round draft choices — ouch!
Third, the failure rate for pitching prospects has always been very high. Many get hurt, some never translate good minor league numbers into major league success. I think it takes about ten bona-fide starting pitching prospects to produce one front-of-rotation major league starter. You really cannot have enough pitching in your organization.
Yeah, that is why they say there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Sometimes stuff doesn’t translate, sometimes injuries put the kibosh on a career, but it is usually something.
Eric Duncan was a legit prospect, a very good one. Sure he benefitted from a little of the Yankee prospect hype, but he had the tools and was very young, he just never put it together. Henry’s mantra was athleticism, which can translate into skills on the field but in that case didn’t.
The Nationals website just had an article up about Clippard (another major leaguer from the list). Seems that he’s been moved to the pen and has done a decent job as of late. On the flipside, we got Albaladejo for Clippard and he’s probably done just as good a job, so the trade has really been a wash.
http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090721&content_id=5987476&vkey=news_was&fext=.jsp&c_id=was
You are right, I actually read that one. My bad. Clippard has a shot at an MLB career as a reliever.
When was Rasner ever a “prospect”?
Jose Tabata did produce as a trade chip and was the main chip in landing Nady/Marte not to mention he is only turning 21 in August so he has talent left to develop. JB Cox is still a desirable bull pen prospect just currently injured and that can happen to anyone, but I still expect him to make it to the majors at some point. Clippard isn’t terrible with the Nationals and was involved in the one for one deal giving us albaladejo and sean Henn did make it to the majors with the Twins, so it’s not like the list is crap but it does prove a point. With that said I still value Montero, Jackson, Hughes, Chamberlain, Melancon enough to not trade for Halladay and 5 is not an unreasonable number to come out of a farm system in a 4 or so year period.
Cox isn’t necessarily done as a prospect, but TJ was awhile ago and for a guy who never had great velo anyone it isn’t just a question of his power coming back. I was once very excited about him but unless the light switch comes on again and he regains that pinpoint control he’s going to struggle to hit the bigs.
It is very interesting looking at this list, and noticing that there are no A-caliber prospects on the list other than Hughes (who blew up in 2007, and was graded a straight A if I remember correctly). Montero, Joba, and Hughes are all guys who were or will be (in Montero’s case) bona fide grade A prospects. Jackson and Melancon are probably not at that level, and in my mind are not untouchable in the right deal. Regardless, comparing the system in 2006 to the current system, it has improved a lot, and has produced many more major league caliber players.
Eric:
Is it your view that grade A prospects are inherently untouchable? If so, I don’t agree. It seems to depend upon what they would bring back in exchange and how important a need the trade fills.
Montero is a good case in point. He is a brilliant hitting prospect. But if the baseball consensus is correct that he won’t make it as a catcher, his greatest value may well be as a trade chip for a top flight starter or a young position player who fills an actual need. (Note: I am not advocating trading him for Halladay, for reasons I have explained in other responses.)
I think nobody should be truly untouchable. The quality of the return and the need are definitely a factor. To move a grade-A prospect, it would have to be in the right kind of deal, for a young, relatively inexpensive player who is already a star (somebody like Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Tim Lincecum, etc.). I just don’t see many teams willing to trade those types of player for a prospect, no matter how good they are.