Let me pose this hypothetical to you. Let’s say that I have what every Manager and General Manager in Baseball wishes they had (and every fan thinks they have) and that is a crystal ball. One that can see into the future. Seeing not just what we wish to happen, but seeing all, the good and the bad.
As I gaze deeply into my crystal ball, I see the Yankees making the Roy Halladay trade. They give up Joba, Montero and A-Jax to complete the deal. Roy Halladay comes to the Bronx and is brilliant from Day 1. He leads them to the playoffs each of the next 3 years, leaving the Red Sox and Rays in the dust. John Henry Twitters that he hates Baseball, and should have never bought the team. The Yankees will win 2 of the next 3 World Series, appearing in all three. Halladay pitches brilliantly in the post season, winning decisive games and closing out the final game of the 2009 World Series with a complete game shutout. Joy and celebration reign in the Bronx.
But wait, now I’m looking deeper into my crystal ball. I see Jesus Montero becoming the next Frank Thomas, Austin Jackson playing like Devon White and Joba, oh boy is he good. Joba Chamberlain has worked through his early adjustments and is pitching like Roger Clemens in his prime.
I’m not done yet. After winning 2 of the next 3 World Series championships, the Yanks collapse 1964-style in 2012 when Jeter, Mo, Posada (and yes) A-Rod all get old at the same time. They have the resources to field a decent team, but it’s the 1980′s all over again. They have no high-end reinforcements coming from the farm to compete with the Rays, Red Sox and the up and coming Blue Jays. They have a sub-.500 for the next 5 seasons, finishing in 4th place most of those seasons and one year in dead last.
The Blue Jays however, are flying high. They make three straight World Series appearances from 2013-2015 due in large part to the three stars we traded them for Halladay. Jesus Montero is is named the 2014 AL MVP, putting up a monster .350/.402/.698 season with 54 HRs and 148 RBIs. Joba Chamberlain is the 2013 World Series MVP, winning 3 games with (yes) a 0.38 ERA.
OK, back to 2009. You’re Brian Cashman, standing at the crossroads. Do you make the Roy Halladay trade?
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0 Responses to A look into my crystal ball . . .
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TIQ IQ
Just in case you’re wondering, Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi were fired in 2014. The new ballpark had been empty for the past season and Hal has a big mortgage to pay on it.
I will not make the trade. I would rather compete this year as we are and continue to build for 2011 and beyond. MONTERO is a beast!
Is your crystal ball still under warrenty? If so, I would take it back and demand a refund. Your view assumes that the team would take no other steps before 2014 (trades, free agents, developing prospects) to replacv its aging and declining players. When has that ever happened with this organization?
No, I am not advocating the as you have described it, but analysis of its merits ought to rest on somewhat more realistic expectations and an understanding that it is not the last move the Yankees will make.
I think Steve was just trying to present the extremes- Halladay is no lock to bring two titles either. This is a “what is the best possible benefit vs. the worst possible result” type thing. Furthermore, the fact that the Yankees may supplement with free agents would not change the fact that the Yankees would likely need to have an immense payroll to compensate for their already expensive players getting old. You need to have some young talent to plug in.
Exactly. So often fans only look at the upside, and I wanted to see if people could live w/the downside.
And Scout, come on. Just play along.
OK, Steve. I’ll play along, even though I believe crystal ball exercises should be about probabilities, not extremes.
If acquiring Halladay assured the Yankees of two World Series titles in the next three years while also guaranteeing a long-term collapse, I would not do it. I believe there are other ways the team can win now, even if the probability is somewhat less, without sacrificing long-term competitiveness
course not!!!! i think they can do the deal with out joba,phil or montero.they have other players like dellin,michael dunn,austin romine and good players i like the yankees make a deal for doc but not with ours set up boys and our next edgar martinez give them ajax,melancon,igaua,cervelli and joe girardi, if no convinced ricciardi let extra large pizza with peppers ad chicken with the delivery guy is joe girardi in the boss car.
There’s no way the Jays take your offer. The offer the Phils and Angels have on the table right now is better. And they’re not even in the same division.
thats were i think..
No. I tell JP to bite me.
He should bite Wells instead. That crazy contract is going to hurt the Jays for a long time.
He’s the guy who decided to give Wells that contract. So he should bite himself.
The three guys+, the Jays want are three of the closest we have to untouchable. It’s a no brainer…NO way Jay!
Question for all…why are so many, ready to trade players like Cervelli, Dellin, Dunn, Romine and A-Jax?
Reason I ask; these are all good players on the way up. Granted, they may not reach the status of Posada, CC, AJ, A-Rod or even Bernie W., but, in three or four years some of them will be very good players.
We are really only talking about the next 220 games. If we really want Doc, we can sign him up as a FA. The price for 220 games of Doc is way too much. I would pass.
Good point.
Playing along, is hard not to make a trade if someone guarantees you are going to win 2 WS in 3 years. You make anything for that to happen once, let alone twice.
Now, speaking with some reallity in mind, the package of Joba, Jesus and Ajax is absurd. It will never happen. I would not give Joba or Hughes on the deal, because we are looking for pitching depth (the necessity) not for an ace (a luxury, we allready have one). Trading one of them doesn´t solve the problem this year.
Other than those two, I´ll trade anybody, even Montero. Yes, he´s a beast, and so is Halladay, but a proven one. Montero will be a DH, the spot they´ll need for Arod in a few years, he will not play 1b, Tex spot. They hace catching depth like no other. They are going to end up trading this guy eventually, so why not do it now for Halladay. A good packahe could be Montero, Melancon, Z-Mac and a low level-high ceilling prospect.
Another thought: as much depth as we have in SP pitchers in the farm right now, there is NOT another Joba or Hughes down there righ now. Talk all you want about IPK, Nova, Z-Mac, Arodys, Dellin or Brackman, they are not this type of special pitchers right now. So yes, in 2012 we could collapse as age and budget hit us again, like 1964, the 80´s or this decade.
That´s why I think Cashman would not make this deal if one of those is in the package
Can you look into your crystal ball and see how many Yankee fans jump off the GWB once Montero hits 54 homers, lol?
I think it’s a great question, but no I do not do it. We have the chance to win the World Series without Halladay for the next three years, and if Joba/Montero/Jackson all develop, we will have the chance to win the Series then too. I would rather have chances every year then win a couple then have no chance for years.
Joba could be an ace of a staff, Montero could be one of the big 3 hitters for the Yankees future and Austin Jackson could possibly be the next number two hole hitter and you want to mortgage that for a possible chance to maybe win a world series?
Steve,
Bottom line, I think your question is this:
Wich decade would you like to relive, the 90´s or this one. In other words, would you like a decade of few chances that you take it all the way, or a decade full of good but no championship teams?
Why does Roy Halladay guarantee a championship? Will the Red Sox forfeit the rest of the season if we get him? Will the Phillies roll up into a ball and die? Will the Dodgers just go ahead and retire to the beach? Will the Angels just start free agency after the deal? No, Roy even if he pitches great doesn’t guarantee squat! What if you trade all these prospects, get Halladay don’t win a world series and then when he gets older you have a bad contract attached to an old pitcher you can’t get rid of with no prospects to revive your team and your still just a team who had a bunch of decent seasons and no rings! However if you keep your prospects you have a chance for many players to help get you a world series title instead of just relying on one guy to play baseball god!
LOL, where the Orioles nowhere to be found in this crystal ball? Poor Baltimore…
were*
Take Halladay now! Give up Joba as he will burn himself out.
Thanks
What are the winning lotter tickets this week.