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Let’s compare two players without revealing who they are until later, just so that I can surprise you with a point that surprised me. Both players are in their age 28 season and have been in the majors for 6 seasons. Player B’s first two seasons were better than Player A’s, but I am going to ignore that fact and look at the numbers for the last 4 seasons, including the current year.

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OPS+
Player A: 120, 122, 111, 95
Player B: 125, 127, 92, 127

Doubles/Homers/RBI/Runs

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Player A: 142/65/283/311
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Player B: 98/95/281/317

Walks/K’s/Steals
Player A: 157/358/77
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Player B: 329/479/7

Offensively, these two guys are very close. A closer look at the numbers suggests that Player B is the more valuable offensive player who had his numbers dragged down a bit by one poor year. As I mentioned above, if you include the first two seasons of their respective careers, it becomes clear that Player B has been the better hitter to this point. Defensively, Player B is rated by most metrics as an average fielder. Player A, on the other hand, is a gold glove caliber fielder. Due to the fairly close nature of their offensive output, this makes Player A the proper selection, but it is a very close call. However, one last comparison makes it clear that their value is perceived differently.

Salary:
Player A: In year 2 of a 7-year, 69.835 million dollar contract signed prior to the 2008 season, with a club option at 13.5 million for 2015.
Player B: In year 3 of a 5-year, 26.75 million dollar contract signed prior to the 2007 season, with a club option at 10.25 million for 2012.

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You may have already figured out that Player B is Nick Swisher. This comparison was spurred on by the following from Jeff Blair:

Anyhow, my sense is general manager J.P. Ricciardi’s all but at the bag of balls stage; that he’s decided any money saved in off-loading Rios or Wells is more important than what’s brought back in return, and that it would have been done by now had Travis Snider not been hurt. The Blue Jays are in danger of a serious revenue crunch that will impact their ability to do on-field business next year. Money’s not coming in, and Roy Halladay needs to be paid.

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Player A is Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Alexis Rios. I set out to do a column on pursuing Rios and was surprised when I glanced at his numbers. As I noted above, Rios’ superior defense makes him the selection when choosing between the two players, but it is much closer than I would have expected. When considering the contracts, it is clear that either Swish is undervalued, Rios is overvalued, or some combination of the two.

Broken Windows psp This brings me to the point of my article. The money being paid to Rios is the premium for a player who looks good on the field. Rios looks like the most talented player in the world out there on a regular basis, and is therefore held in much higher esteem than the awkward Swisher. Quite frankly, the disparity in their contracts in ridiculous, and suggests that there are still market inefficiencies for smart teams to exploit. If clubs can get past what looks good and properly identify who produces more, they can avoid falling for tools and start paying for results.

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9 Responses to The Cost Of Looking Good (Guess These Players!!)

  1. Tom Gaffney says:

    Hmmm, Fangraphs value stats rate Rios worth about 17+ wins above replacement level the last 4 years, versus 9+ for Swish. Considering Rios’ salary is about twice that of Swisher, it actually works out. That is, if you buy into the defensive value stats.

  2. Chris H. says:

    They paid for Rios’ upside, but he’s an anomaly and has fallen apart this year. Maybe the Jays should hang back when they decide to give Adam Lind a big contract…

  3. Moshe Mandel says:

    I don’t for the most part, but even so, isn’t most of that defensive value concentrated in 2008? I’m not in front of a computer, so I may be wrong.

    • Chip says:

      I’m pretty sure that Rios had a crazy awesome defensive year last year. So far, I think he’s actually rated as below average on this season as he’s slumping a bit. The difference is, Rios can play a great center field and got bonus points for that last year. Swisher just isn’t fast enough to play center but is rated fairly above average in right field for his career and has actually been better out there this year than Rios.

      If the Yankees were to trade for Rios (unlikely), they’d have to deploy him in center field in order for him to be an upgrade. Problem is, Brett Gardner is currently out-hitting, out-fielding and out-stealing him for the league minimum.

      • Chris H. says:

        I don’t think the Jays would ever trade Rios to the Yankees, but it is rumored that they would consider moving him, I believe.

        • Chip says:

          Agreed, they’ll follow the “don’t trade a guy in the division” rule. Seriously, do you really think that fans are going to be so upset that Rios will play against them for a few years that they should take a lesser package to send him out of the division? It’s the same thing that happened to Santana and is happening to Peavy this year. The Mets were rumored to have about the fourth best package for Santana and the Dodgers are reported to be the best fit for Peavy. I just don’t understand it

          • Chris H. says:

            Yea, I never understood why the Padres cared about trading within their division. Their team was terrible, it shouldn’t have mattered either way.

    • Tom Gaffney says:

      No, those numbers are for the last 4 years combined.

  4. KGsturnz0r217 says:

    Rios is actually the best looking Blue jay. Search it on Youtube

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