The star of last night’s Subway Series game was clearly Brett Gardner
. He went 5-6 with a rare HR and 3 runs scored. He also saw 24 pitches (great new box score stat by ESPN) in his 6 ABs, which was tied for best of the evening with Francisco Cervelli and Mark Teixeira. This is just a continuation of his recent play. He is hitting .387 in his last 27 games, lifting his season average to .303 and his OBP is .374.
Its tempting in the midst of a hot streak to dub Brett our everyday Centerfielder and new Leadoff hitter. But can he do it? He’s had very little MLB experience, despite seeing some action late last year he’d still qualify for the 2009 Rookie of the Year award, although just barely. 130 ABs in the prior season is the cutoff for ROY consideration and Brett had 127 last year. In his 152 at-bats so far this year, he is hitting .303/.374/.441 and leads all rookies in average, on-base percentage, runs scored and stolen bases. Though if he winds up with only 300-400 ABs that will certainly hurt his chances at being selected over other rookies who’ve played every day.
Critics who don’t like his game will cite his low power numbers, but that’s not the type of player he is. He’s a table setter, you don’t look at HR’s, SLG or OPS. The way you evaluate a player like Gardner is OBP, Runs Scored and to a lesser extent Stolen Bases. Stolen Bases can be over rated, but in Brett’s case they are more meaningful to his value as a player. But after winning the starting Centerfielder role out of Spring Training, he lost the job in April putting up an anemic line of .220/.254/.271. However, one thing to factor in that is he’s always had the tag in the minors of being a slow starter and slow to adjust to each new level as he rose through the system.
One way to tease out whether he’s an everyday player is to check his platoon splits. So far this year, he has posted a .314/.378/.463 against Righties and .258/.351/.355 line vs lefties (in a mere 31 ABs). That’s way too few ABs against lefties to draw any conclusions about, but I like that his OBP has held up. This is a familiar pattern for him, he actually fared better against Lefties in AAA last year, after struggling against them in the lower levels. His career minor league numbers suggest he’s an everyday player, but we all know guys can get exposed at this level. What gives Brett a better shot than others is his relentless work ethic according to Girardi, he’s constantly working with Kevin Long on improving his game and making adjustments at this level.
The jury’s still out on Brett, but I wouldn’t bet against him.
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TIQ IQ
Of course Gardner can be the Yankees everyday center fielder! I think he should be the 2 hole hitter going forward if he continues to hit well. Maybe if he hits as well as Jeter does leading off the game he could lead off but that likely will not happen until Jeter is gone. I could really see Austin Jackson leading off and Brett Gardner batting second followed by Teixeira an Alex.
I disagree with the notion that SLG (or OPS) doesn’t get looked at when evaluating any player. I don’t think I’d want to look past Gardner’s SLG anyway-441 is a solid number, and it seems to rise once he gets used to a new level. I do agree that OBA means more to guys who can run like he can (and I’m not usually a big fan of SBs)
I think he’s learned to drive the ball better since last year. Punch and Judy is OK for guys that can’t hit, but it looks like Gardner can hit.
I think Joe G should give him as many ABs as possible-if he hits 280 with his OBA skills and reasonable power numbers he’s a definite asset.
SLG doesn’t matter for him because his job is to get on base and score runs, not drive them in. If he does, great. But its not something I’d hold against him.
SB has value for him because they contribute to his Total Bases, which is what you want from him.
SLG wouldn’t matter if he never came up with men on base. Even leading off for an NL team, he’d come up in RBI situations. In the AL with the DH, and especially on teams that have a high OBA, he’ll hit in RBI situations quite often.
His ‘job’ as a hitter is to produce runs. That’s like when people say Rickey Henderson was the greatest lead-off hitter that ever lived. He wasn’t-Babe Ruth or Ted Williams probably was. They just didn’t bat first because they were also the greatest #3 hitters or clean-up hitters of all time.
I don’t think Gardner is going to be Roy Thomas or Richie Ashburn. I think he has more pop than either of those guys. I don’t think the 440 SLG is a fluke-he’ll leg out enough 2Bs and 3Bs as well as hitting the gaps and the occasional long fly ball enough to keep it over 400.
I have a “What if” scenario… What if Ajax doesn’t project to have any real power capability in the majors?
He then is pigeon-holed into the CF position. We apparently have similar type players in Gardner & Melky, especially Gardner.
Right NOW, then, Ajax may be at his highest value as an asset of the Yankees. Assuming he cannot become a 25 HR corner outfielder, would it be too crazy to think about trading Jackson, particularly if a big time pitcher (Halliday?) can be had?
I know its difficult to give up on a prospect like this, but its something to ponder… don’t kill me on this but its only a “What if” situation.
Trade away if you can get Halliday!
The Jays would never trade Halladay to the Yankees. If the Austin Jackson is traded I hope it would be in a deal to get say Joey Votto or someone like him who could play the outfield. Yes I know Votto would cost a lot more then just Jackson.
That’s the Yankee’s mentality of the past decade. As soon as a prospect starts to look promising, trade him away so you can get the most value out of him.
Bernie Williams hit .294 with a .458 slugging at age 22 in AAA. Ajax is currently hitting .321 with a .424 slugging. I’m in no way saying he’s going to turn into Bernie Williams but that’s still a very solid line. Power is the last skill to develop as evidenced by our old buddy Alfonso Soriano who only hit 14 homeruns over more than 500 AAA at bats.
Brett Gardner is certainly an every day player. His .303/.374/.441 line is outstanding. Even if you don’t consider the fact that he’s a leadoff hitter, an .815 OPS isn’t half bad. That gives him a 113 OPS+. 13% better than the average player. His .378 wOBA is more than 14% better than the league average of .329. If you consider the fact that he’s a leadoff hitter with 17 steals in 19 attempts he looks even better. Then consider the fact that he has a UZR/150 over 10. I mean that’s a very, very good major league player.
Compare that to Jacoby Ellsbury this year:
.306/.354/.399, .347 wOBA. Much worse deffense and a lower speed score. And he’s an everyday player.
No doubt he should start every day. They need him to start so that he can be ready next season when him cervelli and pena become starters. I dont’ know why pena isn’t around and that god awful ransom is but whatever. http://yankees.gearupforsports.com/blog/2009/07/yankees-get-brooms-out-for-daytime-cleaning/
The Yankees Need youth to start making a push but first they have to let them
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