Draft Thoughts: Eying the 2nd Rounder

While I have mentioned some possible first-round picks in two previous posts, with this one I am going to take a look at a few guys who the Yankees might consider with their 2nd-round pick.  If they are not selected in the first because of signability or injury issues, Matt Purke, Donavan Tate, and Kyle Gibson all could potentially be available in the 2nd despite being consensus first-round talents.  Luke Bailey could also be available here, and would make a fine pick.  However, since I have already discussed these guys, let’s look at some other players who they might be interested in.  For the sake of context, recent 2nd-round picks by the Yankees were Scott Bittle (2008, unsigned), Austin Romine (2007, looking like a great pick), and JB Cox (2005, looking like a bust because of injuries).  The Yankees pick at #76, 1 pick ahead of Boston.

David Renfroe, SS, South Panola HS:  If you have been following Nomaas’s excellent draft blog, you will see that the Yankees have been interested in Renfroe for some time.  Renfroe is a big athletic kid who also played quarterback for his high school team, though he is not attempting to pursue college football.  He has 5 tools that grade out at at least average, including an above average hit tool, potentially above-average power, and a plus arm.  While there are questions of whether he will stick at short, this seems to be more a matter of him outgrowing the position (he’s 6’3″, 200) than it is about him lacking the ability to play short.  A great athlete at an up-the-middle position is truly a valuable commodity, and any team drafting Renfroe will probably have to go overslot to get him to turn down a full scholarship to Mississippi (sidenote: college baseball players rarely get full scholarships because the NCAA limits the number of scholarships that they can give out, 11.7 per team).  It is rumored that it could take up to 2 million to sign Renfroe, and while Renfroe is not a consensus first-round talent (he’s ranked #67 by BA), he might be worth the overslot bonus, and could be available at #76.

Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor: Coming into the season, Volz was projected as a possible first-round candidate, though a tough junior season (4.54 ERA) combined with lower velocity has dropped his stock.  At his best, Volz can hit 97 with the fastball, though recently he has been clocked in the low 90′s.  In addition to having good movement on and command of the fastball, Volz also has a good slider and a changeup, and at 6’5″ 225, he has the prototypical power pitcher’s build.  There are questions about whether he will be a starter or a reliever in the future, but with his 3-pitch repertoire, he will likely get a chance to start in the future.  Volz will likely be available at 76 (he’s 92 on the BA list), and may not require a huge bonus (though probably overslot), and he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate.

Chris Dwyer, lhp, Clemson: If this name sounds familiar to you, it should.  The Yankees drafted Dwyer last year in the 36th round as a 20 year-old high school senior, but Dwyer honored his scholarship to Clemson.  Since he is 21 as a freshman (in addition to being to keep fellow freshmen well supplied), Dwyer will be eligible for the draft this year as a freshman, a rarity.  Because he has 3 more years of college left, Dwyer has some leverage, although if he wants to have a major league career he will probably sign by the end of his sophomore year anyway.  As for his repertoire, Dwyer throws a fastball that has touched 95, and an excellent plus curveball.  While he is less polished than a typical college draftee, Dwyer’s raw stuff gives him a high ceiling.  He didn’t exactly set the world on fire with a 5.30 ERA this season, and will likely develop slower than a typical college arm, but I would still be intrigued by this pick.  One potential wrinkle is that Dwyer would need to sign a waiver to allow the Yankees to re-draft him, and it’s possible that the longtime Red Sox fan would not sign.  They would probably need to go over slot for Dwyer as well.

Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State: Kipnis, who did not sign after being picked in the 6th round by the Padres as a draft-eligible sophomore, returned to Arizona State and put up another strong season.  Kipnis, although he played centerfield at ASU, may not be able to stay there in the pros.  While he does not have any outstanding tools, his college performance has been excellent.  In his 2 seasons at Arizona State (he was at Kentucky as a freshman), Kipnis has exhibited great plate discipline, with 99 walks against 71 strikeouts.  He also is a good hitter, hitting .371 with 14 homers as a sophomore and .384 with 16 homers as a junior.  The plate discipline in particular would make him attractive to the Yankees, who value that skill, along with a track record of performance at a strong baseball school.  While his scouting profile will blow few people away, and he will lose value if he has to move to a corner position, his statistical profile is very impressive.

Lincoln Hamilton of Project Prospect recently wrote about Kipnis, comparing him favorably to some top-notch college draftees of years past.  Statistically speaking, Hamilton argues, Kipnis’s performance was superior to that of (among others) Gordon Beckham, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, and Alex Gordon, and he is a member of the prestigious 555 club (see the article), which is a good predictor of future success.  This is not a particularly sexy or high-ceiling pick, but Kipnis is a polished, disciplined college hitter who could be a useful addition to the Yankee system, and should be signable at 76.  As Hamilton writes, “I can’t look at Kipnis without thinking of Nate McLouth with a few more walks…I have a hard time seeing Jason Kipnis not developing into a similar type of player. This draft has more uncertainty than most, but some team is going to a .280/.365/.470 hitter as a steal in the second or third round.”  Nate McClouth with more walks in the late 2nd round?  Where do I sign?

That’s all for tonight, but I’ll have more draft stuff coming.  Comment if you agree/disagree with any of my suggestions, and let me know if you have any ideas for what kind of coverage you want to see on draft day.  Are there any guys that I have failed to mention?  I was planning to do a liveblog during the draft, but I would be open to doing a chat if there is sufficient interest.

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