From Keith Law:
Price tags on players in this draft continue to rise, with over 90 player saying they will only sign for first-round money.
Essentially, what this means is that some of the top prospects may drop much further than expected, as teams will attempt to identify the most signable of those 90 players and stick to those. Once those players drop past the first round, there is no telling how far they might drop. To illustrate this point, Law is now reporting that BC catcher Tony Sanchez has a deal in place with the Pirates at 4. Sanchez is widely considered a first round talent due to his sparkling defense, but he is a bit of a reach at 4 and probably signifies the Pirates unwillingness to overpay a better talent. A look at the top of the draft from Law and Jim Callis further drives home this point. First, from Callis:
1. Nationals: San Diego State righthander Stephen Strasburg.
2. Mariners: North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley.
1941 film
3. Padres: Georgia HS outfielder Donavan Tate.
4. Pirates: Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez.
5. Orioles: California HS righthander Matt Hobgood.
6. Giants: Georgia HS righthander Zack Wheeler.
7. Braves: Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor.
8. Reds: North Carolina righhander Alex White.
He has top prep arm Tyler Matzek falling out of the top 8, while lesser talents such as Sanchez, Hobgood, and Minor slide into the top of the draft. Law has Matzek going 6th, but shows a similar fate for some of the top arms looking for lots of dough:
Stephen Strasburg
Dustin Ackley
Donovan Tate
Tony Sanchez
Zack Wheeler
Tyler Matzek
Alex White
Mike Minor
Jacob Turner
Drew Storen
Bobby Borchering
Mike Leake
Grant Green
Shelby Miller
Rex Brothers or Eric Arnett
If the Padres can’t afford Tate, they’ll take Wheeler, and the Orioles would probably take Matt Hobgood. The A’s alternative at No. 13 is Mike Trout, but I think they’ll take Green.
With Storen, Minor, and Sanchez in the top 10, players such as Purke, Gibson, Scheppers, and Crow could slide out of the first round entirely, making it likely that one of that group would be around when the Yankees pick at 76. This should be a fascinating draft, as it is as wide open a draft as I can recall. Tune in at 6 for Eric’s liveblog and writeups on all important Yankee picks.
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2 Responses to Draft Notes: The Prospects Are Falling!!!!
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TIQ IQ
If the 5/6 is Hobgood and Wheeler, that almost guarantees either Turner or Matzek fall out of the top 10. I could see Detroit going either way, but no way the Nationals put up that kind of money along with signing Strasburg. Even though I doubt either falls to the Yankees, your right imo about it increasing our chance to get those other guys. The “over slot” teams will have more options to look at, and thus more of the “over slot” guys will fall to our picks.
And once they fall past the first, there is a halfway decent they reach us in the second as well. That’s what happens in the MLB draft- guys can slide full rounds.