Could this series be the end for the Tampa Bay Rays 2009 baseball season? The Yanks have a cozy 5 game lead at this point and a sweep would move the lead to an intimidating 9 games. A 3-1 split would still put the Rays a perilous 7 back. Why has Tampa struggled so much to this point (they just reached the .500 mark after last night’s win) and are they likely to bounce back?
So what has ailed the struggling Rays thus far? They have a young, up-and-coming lineup that was expected to compete neck-and-neck with the Yankees and Red Sox for the king of the A.L. hill crown. So what has hindered their development? The answer, in two words, is starting pitching. The Rays have actually gone from a team that was 9th in the A.L. in runs scored to the very top of the pile this year, but have conversely gone from 2nd in starters ERA to 9th (further demonstrating the preeminent value of that category).
2/5ths of their starting rotation from last year has completely blown up. Unsurprisingly, Andy Sonnanstine has reverted to form with a decidedly messy 7.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. More surprisingly, Rays erstwhile ace Scott Kazmir has followed suit going a Wangian 7.69 and 1.95 in his 9 starts. Kaz’ problems are once again health related as the diminutive lefty has been shelved for the time being and he is not scheduled to start this series. Sonnanstine, however, pitches Sunday against AJ Burnett who is coming off maybe his best outing of the season.
To further darken Tampa’s forecast, the injury bug has hit, DLing both Akinori Iwamura and stud breakout SS Jason Bartlett, he of the gaudy +1.000 OPS. So a 3-1 Yankee favored split pretty much ends it for these Rays, huh? Not so fast, eager, blood-smelling Yankee sharks. Filling in on the infield diamond is merely another +1.000 OPS guy in super-sub Ben Zobrist who has been tearing the proverbial cover off the ball.
Subbing for stashee Kazmir is simply the top prospect in baseball, left handed beast, David Price who goes tonight agains the CC Sabathia. One thing that will give a boost to all the pitchers is the continually superb defense, again ranked #1 in the AL and defense never really goes for hot and cold streaks.
Another reason why the Rays struggled so badly in the early going was due to the injury to BJ Upton who has struggled since his return but also has a +1.000 OPS in the last week and appears to be heating up. Their league leading offense may get even better with him revving up and Bartlett due back soon. That lineup is positively scary. Longoria, now in his second year is an absolute monster.
The bottom line is that I think the Rays are going to be in it for the long haul, so these games are huge. The Yankees have advantages in not having to face Shields this series and certainly the Sabathia price matchup as well as facing Sonnanstine on Sunday gives the bombers decisive edges in two games, but this is a really, really, really talented team that may just be getting going, coming off a convincing sweep of the (admittedly struggling) Royals. Three games this weekend into Monday would give the Yankees a much-needed playoff cushion to hold off an inevitable Ray’s charge from behind. What do you guys think? Will the Rays make a big run this year or was last year’s crown a bit of a fluke?
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5 Responses to Could the Yankees End the Rays Season?
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TIQ IQ
The Rays are better than they are playing right now, but they were also very lucky last season that none of their starting rotation went on the DL. That is something that almost never happens. You can usually predict the division winner based on who gets the most innings from the 5 members of their rotation, and last year it was the Rays.
The Rays were my pre-season World Series pick, believe it or not, and they look like they’re finally getting their starting pitching together (Niemann hurled a gem the other night, and is developing into a solid pitcher).
However, with that said, this upcoming series is a great opportunity for the Yankees to gain some traction in the East and the playoff race in general. Unfortunately, it appears that only 3 games will be played this weekend (I dunno why they wouldn’t play a doubleheader, but from what I’ve heard, that doesn’t sound likely), but either way, the Yankees MUST win this series, imo. They’re 2-8 vs. Tampa/Boston this year, they need to improve upon that, and this upcoming stretch represents a prime opportunity for the Yankees to gain some good standing in the playoff race.
It’s only June, so even if the Yankees won the series (even swept, perhaps), it wouldn’t all be over for the Rays, but it’d be nice to gain further separation. If the Rays win this series, they’re right back in the race. And if they get going, I can’t think of a more talented team in baseball, to be honest. The talent (young talent especially) on that team is absurd.
Its June. They are at .500. We’ve dug out of deeper holes. They can too.
Young teams that improve significantly from one season to the next almost always lose ground the following year-often significant ground.
They were a very lucky team last year.
you couldn’t be more wrong. tampa won all those games last year through excellent pitching, a rangy defense that gobbled balls up, OBP and speed. They are young, athletic, well managed and have a deep farm system. If history points to that trend like you say, then Tampa is the exception. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston creeps to 3rd soon and it becomes a race between the Rays and Yanks for the Division/Wildcard.
And replying to the main post, yeah, I absolutely agree. Tampa is a beast to come. A more electric, younger 90′s Braves type of dynasty for the Rays might be in reach, I think. They need to fix their BP for this year, but they have so many good young arms in the minors to tinker around with and trade for proven commodities.