I’m back from the great island of Jamaica, for now. I’m hoping to make it out to a Scranton game this weekend to get some pictures. If anyone is going to be there, let me know.
Ivan Nova Finally Consistent
Ivan Nova has been a bit of a headache for a few years now. He has always had great stuff – a low-90s fastball with lots of movement and two strong offspeed pitches – but was unable to capitalize on it. The Padres took a flyer on him in the Rule V draft, but he failed to make the team. Now, Nova has managed to pitch 47 innings with a 3.26 ERA for Trenton.
The Yankees have steadily promoted Nova even though he was very hittable in A ball and High-A ball, because of his coming Rule V eligiblity. Finally, he has started to produce. Nova is on pace to set career highs in strikeouts, ERA, and innings pitched. Hitters are pounding the ball into the ground, and except for 2 bad starts (11 walks in 10 innings pitched), he has flashed plus control. Combine that with a perfect recent health record, and Nova could very well be major league ready as soon as next year. It is easy to underestimate what good stuff, decent control, and durabiltiy can mean for a young pitcher. If Nova keeps pitching strong, he will at the very least be added to the 40-man roster in September in advance of the Rule V draft.
Zach McAllister Unhittable
Zach McAllister passed the 40-inning mark today with a 7-inning, no-run performance last week. He has a 1.91 ERA in 47 innings for Trenton this season. McAllister hasn’t hit so much as a minor bump in the road since the beginning of the 2008 season. The 40-inning mark is significant because it is the first benchmark that the Yankees look for to consider promoting a prospect to a new minor league level.
A promotion should and ought come any start now. The Yankees are making bullpen starts at Triple-A. McAllister isn’t having any trouble with Double-A hitters. He’ll get far more valuable experience at the Triple-A level by facing experienced veterans who have spent time in the major leagues. Trenton has plenty of starting pitching lying around right now to replace him. A quickened time table is important for three reasons. First, McAllister would be a depth improvement as 7th or 8th starter for the major league team with Ian Kennedy out for an unknown amount of time. Second, his trade value would increase significantly. Third, he could become a candidate for temporary bullpen conversion come September and into the playoffs, and its plain to see that the Yankees could benefit from another setup arm down the stretch.
Jesus Montero Still Troubled Hitting As Catcher
Jesus Monter hit two more home runs last night while serving as Tampa’s designated hitter. Those shots bring his season total as a DH to .415/.456/.789 with 14 extra base hits in just 73 at bats. As a catcher, Montero is down to .265/.351/.337. The Yankees have to be asking themselves at this point if keeping Montero at the position is hurting his development. Eventually, I think you have to try to guy on in left field.
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18 Responses to Minor Notes: Starting Pitcher Optimism
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TIQ IQ
Nice writeup EJ. I don’t think LF would be the optimal position for the Jesus as LF in Yankee stadium is pretty vast and usually requires a pretty good defender. Right field, on the other hand, is usually a piece of cake because it’s so small and he most definitely has the arm for it.
EJ,
This is my reply to your earlier post that covers the same topic that you discuss here re: Montero.
Can you comment on Marshall’s stuff.
Also, I want to be a little provacative here and pose the following question: If Montero is hitting .340+ with 10 HRs at the break, does he have more to prove with the bat at Advanced A. Is it possible to move him to Trenton and suffer the defensive liability for the sake of continuing to advance his bat? At what point do we focus on the bat at the cost of D?
I have been following the system for years and have not seen any Yankee do this. Indeed, any Yankee that came close was quickly elevated to AA
Marshall – At the draft he had a 95 mph fastball with a good curveball and (for now) poor control. He was a late bloomer in high school, and could be throwing harder by now.
There’s a health issue with Montero too. At his age, the Yankees are in some way content to just let him play. I think I remember some quotes a while back along the lines of “We’re going to take Montero one year at a time”, so he might not be considered for a mid-season promotion. We’re still waiting for the home run surge too.
If Carlos Lee can play a decent enough left field, I have confidence that Montero could hold the position down. While right field in Yankee Stadium might be easier, left field is easier in pretty much every other stadium. Of course, its a minor difference. If he has the legs for the outfield, he has the legs for the outfield.
Not to be an old saw, but I continue to think that Kontos’ stuff translates to MLB more than Z-MC’s or Kennedy’s.
Don’t underestimate McAllister’s stuff. He’s got a ton of movement on a plus fastball, lots of control, and a good curveball. I’d take him in that department over Kontos.
I am sure I was not alone in this sentiment earlier in the spring but how would Monetro play in LF-seems that is the perfect sport for him as we have damon there now and maybe a year or tow more and montero will be ready for New York. Since ZMAC is doing so well in AA any chance he coould be an impact starter in MLB
Montero is slow as sh*t. He would not be a good fit for lf in Yankee stadium. He profiles much much better as an RF, which outside of 1b, is the easiest position to field.
re: Montero – Still very small sample size – what were his splits last year? I’ve never heard of a guy who consistently hit better as a DH, what would even be the science behind that? Are his legs sore? at age 19? That would be kind of weird.
Splits were just as bad last year.
It could be fatigue from catching, or focusing on catching prevents him from focusing fully on hitting. Or it’s just a fluke. Who really knows?
Tom,
It is a small sample size. I am sure that it is not physical.
I agree with Mr Gaffney-there’s no reason to give up on him as a catcher yet. Even if he can become barely acceptable defensively, he’ll have a lot more value than if he becomes a corner OF (providing he can hit like he appears to be capable of.)
Funny how Nova comes back after being a Rule V selection and becomes more consistant… Maybe the Yankees need to re-tool their minor league instructional staffs. Its possible that the Padres added something to his pitching acumen. Just thinking out loud…
I really don’t think you can take Montero’s splits to mean anything at this point. He showed a similar split last season, but not as drastic, while he was maintaining his ISOs. To me, it looks like he was a little luckier as a DH last season; this season, the sample is way too small from both DH and catcher to give it significant merit.
Montero is way more valuable as a catcher, and if he can stick there, he will be quite an asset for the Yanks. I’m not sure he can do that, but you need to give him every chance to, in my opinion. I think the Yanks think so too.
Additionally, I’ve seen reports that the Yanks want to promote one of them to Trenton so they can both get more catching reps. This tells me that they want Montero catching more, not less.
Moving Montero to 1B/LF/RF is the minor league version of putting Joba in the pen.
I think that its a different debate. If it becomes no longer plausible that Montero will stick at catcher, then the Yankees would be much better off moving him. Joba to the pen is retarded because he’s proven to be a very good starting pitcher.
The fact that you found a difference does not make it a different debate. You said “he’s (Joba)proven to be a very good starting pitcher”, but he hasn’t started an entire season yet. There are still a lot of things that could go wrong. I am in favor of starting Joba and the shutting up the Francesas of the world, but I know that it is far from over.
Similarities between the Joba bullpen/Montero 1B arguments:
* Extremely talented young Yankees that the Yanks want to keep in the more valuable position until they prove they can not handle it.
* The argument that they should sacrifice long range benefits (SP/C) for immediate impact (BP/1B).
* Pre mature claims that they “can not handle the rigors of the position”.
* Worries about there size. (Can Joba keep his weight down/Will Montero outgrow the catcher position?)
There are nore similarities than you may care to admit.