Joe Girardi certainly appears to be riding the hot hand in center field and right now the hot hand is certainly Mr. Melky Cabrera. The Yankees are certainly glad that they didn’t DFA Melky at the beginning of the season when it appeared they had too many outfielders and the Melkman was out of options (something I, to my embarassment) thought they should at least consider at that time). So far this season, Melky is hitting a robust .327 with a .400 OBP, a .571 SLG, and a healthy 150 OPS+. I’m sure any of us would love for Melky to keep posting these kinds of numbers but can he keep it going?
At only 24, he certainly is still at an age where breakouts happen. Is this kind of production unprecedented for Leche, or has he had months like this before? Let’s take a look at his line. You only have to go back to this time last year to see that he’s had big starts before. Last March/April, he was .299, .370, .494, 135 – very nice numbers, with slightly lower numbers across the board, but with 90+ plate appearance compared to only 55 for this season.
His biggest month (with 90+ plate appearances) came in July ’07 with a hearty .368, .410, .528 line and a 147 OPS+. This stacks up very comparably to this year (with about 70 more pa’s). He continued to mash in August of that year: .306, .350, .468, 111, though with less power and OBP. Melky also had a hot July and August in ’06 when he went .313, .358, .475, 110 in July and .311, .397, .453, 123 in August.
What does all this prove? Well, it doesn’t PROVE anything, I guess, but it does show Melky as a streaky hitter who has had these kinds of runs before. Only time will tell whether he’s finally put it all together or not. Typically, his streaks will last 2 months at most, so if he’s still going at the end of June, it’s a good sign. Another good sign is that he’s putting together high average, high OBP and high slugging. He’s only had +.300 avg, +.400 OBP, and +.500 SLG in one other month of his career – usually he sacrifices power to raise his average or gets power happy and his OBP plummets.
In watching him, I must say, that he looks very relaxed up there, and he’s hitting the ball hard everywhere. He’s definitely not up there slapping at the ball and he’s not overswinging either. Yes, we’ve seen this before, but he’s young enough to still have a breakthrough. If he’s 130 OPS+ in July, I’ll be thrilled.
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7 Responses to Is Melky for Real?
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TIQ IQ
I am glad you put this together because I was curious of the history. The fact is that melky is so young that we have to be optimistic that he canstring a few great months together. However, I think the real issue for melky is in his head. That worries me because he has to be lose in pressure spots and often seems to tighten up. I hope last night was a sign of good things but he hurt us bad in boston.
Wuz curious myself, JD, that’s why I dunnit – great minds think alike. I would think that pressure hitting comes with confidence which will come with consistent production. Everyone has their good and bad moments in pressure spots and it tends to be overgeneralized. Generally, a guy hits in pressure (over his career) the way he hits in other spots (with some exceptions).
This actually discourages me a bit in that we see he has had runs like this before. If he can OPS+ above 100, he becomes really valuable to the Yankees.
Yeah, it’s discouraging in that sense, but also kind of encouraging that there is a basis for success and that maybe consistency is the problem (and consistency often comes with maturity).
That’s fair. I would love to be wrong about Melky- he is easy to root for.
Moshe,
Its not about being wrong or right with these prospects (yes, I still see Melky in that category). At best, you can handicap the likelihood that a player is “starter material” for the Yankees. I still think that your instinct is right with him in terms of how to handicap Melky. Its probably 20-80 against him being a long time starter for the Yankees. He has a great arm but poor defensive instincts. He is relatively slow as a baserunner and has limited power (10-15 hrs at best). I don’t see these as maturity issues. He just does not have the tools. The question to me is whether we can get a productive year out of him where he does not become the easy out. I think that we can. I do believe that Melky can hit .280.
Both of the CF guys have draw backs. I like Brett over Melky (as all know), he has more tools. The main thing is…who is getting it done…the Milk Man. Run him until he shows he can’t help the team anymore.
Brett won the job, then reverted to his old hitting habits (Lots of young guys do), and lost it. Until he forces himself into the line-up…he’s not.
Which ever one is helping the team plays, bottom line. Good luck Melky.