How does Brett Gardner stay in the lineup? That’s the big question. Will he continue to hit .385 as he did in the Spring? Of course not. BG, as we all know, has lightning in his legs, but in order for that to be unleashed upon Yankee foes, he first needs to get on base. OBP, therefore is going to be the key stat for him, and that is my question to you readers: in your opinion, what does Brett Gardner’s OBP need to be in order for him to be an asset??
Conventional wisdom says that BG needs to be approximately league average in OBP to give the Yanks something positive at that position, but does conventional wisdom hold up (does it ever?). Let’s see.
BG was pretty clearly not an overall asset in his first stint with the team, with an OBP below .240. Coming back in August/ September, however, he managed to post a .329 OBP for those months and, to most eyes, seemed to clearly be a positive force for the team, contributing to a substantial winning run to end the season.
The league average for OBP is .333, so BG hit right about that on his second call-up, lending credence to the idea that his speed and defensive presence could cancel out his lack of pop if only he can achieve a league average OBP.
Looking at it another way, a player BG has been comped to many times, Jacoby Ellsbury, had a decent season in which he contributed to a contender’s playoff run seemingly without adversely affecting the team. Ellsbury had 98 runs scored and 50 steals in 554 AB’s. These are numbers that, I think, Yankee brass would by happy with. His OBP last season was .336 which continues to jibe with the league average argument.
Now, keep in mind, Ellsbury mashed 9 hrs and slugged in the .390s, while BG with probably not hit more than 5 dingers despite adding a little more pop to his stroke of late (he could conceivable slug around .400, though .380 is more likely), so you may have to amp BG’s OBP to the .345 range to get the same production. Then again, though, BG doesn’t have a ridiculous name, so that works in his favor (Jacoby Ellsbury… really? Is he an Amish circus performer or something?).
So what do you guys think? What’s the magic number: .320, .330, .340, .350?? What loses him the job: .310, .300, .290??
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13 Responses to What Does Brett Gardner Need to Do in Order to Be Productive?
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TIQ IQ
I think it’ll be interesting to see if his patience at the plate carries over from the minor leagues. It didn’t so much last season and he’s said that he needs to be more aggressive in the big leagues. So does this translate into a .330 OBP or lower?
That could be the key.
typically he’s adjusted with each level. he likes to draw walks, but he can’t let good pitches go by him the way he could in the minors. He said that was one of the big problems in his first stint – that he was getting way behind in count b/c he wanted to be patient and see pitches. When he came back, he was much more aggressive, but pitchers were still grooving fastballs to him early in counts. I think that’s one of the reasons why he hit .385 and had 3 dinger in Spring ball. I’d assume that word will spread about his new aggressiveness, and he’ll get less pitches to hit, but draw more walks. It’s a big cat and mouse game. Ultimately, though, he’s a patient guy who has a good eye for the zone that should translate into a .50+ spread between his avg and obp.
I’d like to see him at .340, and he loses his job under .315.
I thought he was very effective at .329 last year, 2nd stint, so .315 isn’t so very far off that. I can see it where they might look for an excuse to sit BG, though, so as to raise Melky’s trade value, so they might have a quick trigger.
This really gets into the whole issue of what you are looking for from a CF. I think one slightly overlooked reason for the Yankees dominance in the late 90′s was that they were strong offensively at positions where defense is valued more- C, SS, CF, 2B. it is easier to find effective corner guys- the up the middle guys are harder to find. If Gardner cant cut it, I think you need to keep looking. If A-Jax tears up AAA and Gardy is under .315, I would make a change by July at the latest.
.330-.340
I was going to say 340, and then I saw others were saying the same thing. At 340 he has value.He can still contribute below that, but not any more than a lot of other players.
If he is sitting at .310 but playing exceptional defense and stealing bases like nobody’s business, then he probably can keep his job. I’d imagine he loses it around .300
I think he might surprise everybody with the slugging. He could hit a few out with the short porch in right and will probably hit quite a few in the gap and get the “fast guy” double where the corner outfielder cuts it off before the wall but can’t throw him out at second. Also, anything in the gaps has a chance to turn into a triple with his speed.
It’s not like we have a solid option sitting around. Melky is below him on speed and defense and isn’t exactly a bat-first sort of player. Plus, they want to give A-Jax plenty of time to prove himself in AAA
I’m still not convinced, .285-.295
He was putrid last year and put up a .299. I would be shocked if he was not a bit better.
How about we watch the games and don’t worry too much about BG except his effect on wins and losses.
The “D” he give us in CF will make-up for some of his power numbers but, his OBP needs to be above .310. Even at .320 he is better then anyone else we have (right now), if he is above .320/.325 OBP it is a winning proposition for us.
I look for him to lead the team in doubles, trips and SBs, with a few (5+) dingers. So, an OBP of .325+ is not out of his reach, he adapts very well.
I like the way the ball is flying out in right/right center…it may be the opposite of left field before they closed it off. Left field was called “Death Vally”, the wind knocked down anything hit into the gap in the wall.
I saw a game when Mickey came up as a pinch hitter and drove it into “Death Vally”, I mean he ripped it but, it (almost) came to a stop in the wind and was caught!
[...] Gardner: Going into the season, we pretty much agreed that BG needed a .330ish OBP in order to be effective. He’s outperforming that goal with a .339 OBP, a .416 slugging and 9 steals. He’s [...]