On Friday, Mike Axisa at RAB posted the following about Derek Jeter:
Let’s face it folks, the Captain is at the point in his career where he’s gradually making his way over to the glue factory. Check it out:
2006 2007 2008
OBP .417 .388 .363
SLG .483 .452 .408
IsoP .140 .130 .107
BABIP .394 .368 .336
wOBP .399 .369 .343
LD% 22.3 19.9 17.9
O-S% 18.5 21.9 23.7
(O-S% is the percentage of pitches out of the zone that Jeter’s swung at, which comes courtesy of Fangraphs)
For a soon to be 35-year old shortstop, that’s a troubling trend. We know that Jeter is no great shakes defensively (heck, he’s not even average shakes in that department), but if his offense continues to go south … then where is his value?
Sorry about the formatting, I could not figure it out.
There is one important point that needs to be made here. 2006 was one of Derek Jeter’s best seasons, and was out of line with the seasons surrounding it. The data Mike posts is therefore a bit misleading. Jeter’s 2007 numbers are actually right in line with 2001-2005. When looked at in this broader context, he has had one season of decline, during which he really only had one terrible month following an injury skew his numbers. RLYW looked at the splits and found that his numbers would look somewhat better if that month was taken out, although they would still represent a decline.
The point is that one bad season does not a trend make. Is it possible that Derek is on the downslope of his career? Certainly. However, at this point, we do not have enough evidence to support that notion. Let’s see how 2009 before we decide that he is finished.
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8 Responses to The Supposed Decline Of Derek Jeter
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TIQ IQ
The Face of the Yankees on the decline…impossible?!
News flash…all players decline with age, some more/less then others!
Yes, DJ is on the down-slope, both defensively and offensively, no doubt about it. How fast he gets to the “No Value” mark is the big question…2010, 2011 or 2012? I pick 2010/2011, only because of the pitchers we have and the defence this team needs to be the WS Champs. In previous years we had much greater problems, so DJ defence wasn’t much of an issue…oh how things have changed!
With Canos’ commitment to defence etc., DJ is now the weak link…not enough, just the weakest.
All I was saying is that “no doubt about it” is not supported by the numbers. One bad year from an older player is always assumed to be a decline, but it is not necessarily true. Look at Johnny Damon, everyone thought he was done entering last season.
“no doubt about it” is not supported by the numbers.
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You are right…by the numbers.
I am going with the age and numbers factor. The numbers have been in line with his age (mostly), he gets older the numbers go down…they are not dropping a lot, just what one would reasonably expect as one ages. His defensive numbers were never great to begin with, while his hitting was above most SS (except HR).
As I said “He is the best we have, at this time”. I would also add, I hope his numbers stay good enough for him to reach the milestones he wants…before he hangs it up. We don’t need another Bernie W., story line. I still think he will hang it up, before he is forced into a move from SS.
I agree. I just haven’t even seen age related decline since he turned 29. His 2002-2005 numbers are exactly like his 2007 numbers. He had one bad year. He is likely to decline, but it is not an assumption we can make in full confidence.
Ok, numbers wise I am not as well versed as you are (I wish I were).
Would you grant me the finding of him being the weakest link in the defense? And just when does ones hitting (as a SS) get K.O.d by ones defensive troubles?
Ooops! Gotta run, thanks.
Listen, he’s getting older. It would be alarming if he didn’t get worse at this point in his career. At the same time his numbers from last year are lower than you should expect because he played a while with a broken hand.
Listen, I know that he is likely to get worse with age. I am just saying that there really no trend line to point to, counter to popular belief.
[...] year creates the illusion of a subsequent decline that is not entirely accurate. Here is what I wrote on this issue prior to the 2009 season: There is one important point that needs to be made here. [...]