Here is an interesting thought, courtesy of Tim Marchman:
But for all the money teams spend on pitching, John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, a data company that works for major-league teams, is bewildered by situations like this. “In a three-run game,” he says, “you’d be better off bringing in your No. 2 reliever and saving your best pitcher, usually your closer, for the next game.” By probability, the most crucial moment in a game — the one where an out is the most valuable — often comes earlier, sometimes closer to the seventh inning.
From 1977 to 2006, according to situational probabilities that have been calculated by baseball researchers, home teams going into the top of the ninth inning with a three-run lead win 98% of their games. This would seem to make the use of Mr. Rivera in such situations similar to shooting a fly with an elephant gun.
I’m not sure how I feel about this. I do know that if Joe Girardi began using Mo as a “relief ace,” bringing him in to put out fires as early as the 7th, he would get ripped by the media. We have become so ingrained regarding the closer/save system that it is difficult to envision using your best reliever prior to the 9th inning. If Joba fails in the rotation and needs to be moved to the bullpen when Mo retires, he may be a decent candidate for such an experiment.
What do you think? Would you tinker with the closer role, or leave things as is?
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19 Responses to Discussion: Wasting Mariano?
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TIQ IQ
I don’t think there is any real excuse not to tinker with how you use your closer. It makes no sense that a statistic made up by Jerome Holtzman dictates the exact situations in which Managers use their best reliever. If the Yanks have a three run lead in the 7th or 8th and the bases are loaded, this is probably the highest leverage point in a game, so why would you go with your second or third reliever? Also, it is not a good idea to make decisions based on how the press would react. As a manager, you only have so much control, and should do everything that is in your power to help your team win more games.
I think the general idea, beyond the stat, is that you dont want to hit an even higher leverage point later in the game and not have him. Of course, that ignores the fact that you need to survive the earlier threat to get to the later one.
Well put.
I’ve always believed that the closer role evolved because managers had no discipline. We’ve found that the 9th inning does indeed come with more leverage than other innings, although men-on-base situations in earlier innings feature significantly more. However, closers would get injured from overuse as managers brought them in to every important situation in a game, and then left them in for as long as possible. Mariano’s workload is artificially limited so that undisciplined managers wouldn’t have to make tough decisions about when or when not to use him.
Of course, most of this is born out of my hate for Joe Torre.
Hate? Really?
never read EJ’s firejoetorre blog?
Ahh, yes, now I remember. That was before both PP’s, right?
That the 2006 season. The writing quality was beyond terrible.
Maybe determining when to bring your best relief pitcher into the game should be dictated by several factors. Say for instance that you have a 3 run lead in the top of the 7th and the heart of the order (3-4-5) is coming up, then you bring Mo in. But if the 7-8-9 hitters are coming up, there’s no way you bring him in in that spot. You’d want to save him for the 8th or 9th when better hitters will be at the plate. Basically, what I’m saying is that maybe it should be a situational case-by-case basis and not fixed to any specific inning.
Disagree. Why ever use Mariano with a three run lead with the bases empty. Any reliever should be able to pitch an inning without giving up three runs.
That’s exactly the point. If Mariano does his job in that spot, any reliever should be able to preserve a 3 run lead against the weaker portion of the lineup. I’m not saying its the correct move. But it does make for an interesting debate.
MAriano may need to pitch a little and redevelop arm strength after the surgery last season.
The idea is to win a Pennant and a series.Let Mariano get strong now.Not abused but strong.
He;s throwing closer to 90-91 these days when he used to throw 93 and as high as 95.
I don’t see him being abused.
I don’t think that the argument is # of innings. Rather, I think the argument is whether or not Mariano should come in to non-save situations that are really dicey. For example, bases loaded in the 7th inning of a 7-6 game with one out.
Its not totally off, but you also do have to look at the make up of the closer.
A quick look at Mo’s stats when his team has the lead versus his stats when the game is tied show a big difference.
Simply put, he pitches better with a lead then without it.
Also, as for coming in with a 3 run lead, you don’t always know when you will or won’t need your closer, to me, this is more about does he need work or doesn’t he.
If he pitched the day before, then you can skip him if you have a 3 run lead, but if he hasn’t pitched in like a week, you should be looking to get him into a game.
Also factor in that most closers are creatures of habit, and you start to see why bouncing guys into different spots create inconsistency.
FWIW, teams have tried the “closer by committee” approach, as far as I can tell, no one has totally pulled it off successfully. The team that could have done it the best, but didn’t go all the way with it, was the ’90 Reds with the nasty boy’s.
I honestly don’t think Mo would ever go with this idea either, but a young reliever, or a young bullpen might make it possible.
Two teams have tried closer by committee to my knowledge: the 2003 Red Sox and 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Both lost their closers and had no one to replace them.
Speaking of pitchers, somebody needs to tell Yankees that if Wang isn’t running due to his lisfranc injury (Which I heard is apparently is the case) Yankees should get him in a swimming pool 30-40 minutes a day.That will not only get his legs and wind up but will strengthen his arm also.
All he needs is a little more bite on his pitches and the great likelihood is he’s just not in WANG (MLB pitcher) shape.
ALways worked for my racehorses who had bad feet.Throw ‘em in the pool and keep them off the hard track.
Wang isn’t in shape.The release points and all the other stories are just that.Get him conditioned and strong and he’ll be fine.Throw him in a pool until he can run again and watch his velocity come back.JMHO.
Yeah, that’s what Nardi said today- the strength is not there yet.
I like Mo for the ninth… bad thoughts do creep into good pitchers minds during that inning. That said, I do think they should use Bruney for bigger innings when they arise. Saving him for the eigth when the bases may be loaded in the sixth is bad strategy.
Yeah, i think this may be the direction some smarter managers take the bullpen: maintain the closer role, but have your next best guy be a fireman who can come in at any point.