Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore has an article posted today about lineup optimization based on Tom Tango’s The Book, one of sabermetrics’ most important tomes. Read the full article for clarification, but the major point of the article can be condensed thusly:
Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:
#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.
Another important point addressed is speed at the top of the order:
As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they’re not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.
I thought it would be interesting to construct a Yankees lineup with these precepts in mind, assuming everybody is healthy:
Derek Jeter (R) – High OBP, not much power, decent speed and good baserunning makes for a good fit. Do not want to waste Damon’s better power here.
Jorge Posada (S) – Good bet to be third best hitter on the team, high OBP guy. Thought about Teixeira, but did not want to waste his power on empty base situations.
Hideki Matsui (L) – Thought about Swisher, but a healthy Matsui is the better player.
Alex Rodriguez (R) – This is where you put your best combination of power and OBP ability.
Mark Teixeira (S) – Would be leading off if he had a bit of speed, is the team’s second best hitter.
Johnny Damon (L) – could have fit in a number of spots, but his combination of solid power and speed fit here.
Nick Swisher (S)- Swisher and Cano were fairly interchangeable, so OBP went first.
Robinson Cano (L)- 8th is a nice spot for him to work on his confidence.
Brett Gardner (L)- Provides speed to turn over the lineup, but is likely to be the teams least productive hitter.
Now the lineup without Alex, just moving everyone in the hierarchy up one spot:
Derek Jeter (R)
Jorge Posada (S)
Johnny Damon (L)
Mark Teixeira (S)
Hideki Matsui (L)
Nick Swisher (S)
Robinson Cano (L)
Brett Gardner (L)
Cody Ransom (R)
I had to make some rough judgments here, so it may be that I did not exactly follow the formula. Jeter was hardest to place, due to his not being one of the three best hitters on the team, but being the only one to have high OBP with weak power and some speed made the leadoff spot the most natural fit. It is intriguing to see how different the lineup might be if managers went solely by the numbers.
What do you think about these lineups? Would your judgements based on the same criteria be different?
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15 Responses to Statistically Optimizing The Lineup
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I generally agree with your lineup, although I doubt Posada’s a better hitter than ARod or Teixeira, meaning one of them should be second.
Jeter
Tex/ARod
Posada/Matsui/Swisher
Tex/ARod
Posada/Matsui/Swisher
Posada/Matsui/Swisher
Damon
Cano
Gardner
Definitely true, it is just that I was under the impression that the 2 spot was not the best spot for a power hitter like Tex, a guy with a SLG over .500, so I moved him down to the next most valuable spot, 5.
I would change a player or two but, in reality it is intriguing and as good as any other. I’ve often stated Jeter should be #1 or #9 if, Brett could have a good OBP. When one changes Jeter/Johnny’s place in the order…one must think of their PRIDE in the #2/1 spots.
Posada/Matsui are slow runners but, I see your point.
I really like that you believe Jeter should lead off as so many don’t. I think the best way to get Damon, Matsui, Nady and Swisher enough pa is to platoon the corner outfielders and DH spots to take advantage of left/right splits.
Damon the last 2 year did not hit with power against lefties as his .705 and .710 ops shows.
Now “IF” Swisher returns to his 07 and 06 ways against lefties I want him batting second. Nady has always hit lefties well and much better then Damon throughout there careers.
As for Cano I think you need to challenge him and if you look at what a traditional 5 hole batter hits he is a good fit if he can increase his power to 25 home runs.
This leaves a line up with Arod.
Jeter
Damon/Swisher
Teixeira
Arod
Cano
Posada
Matsui—with Damon, Nady and Swisher helping out somewhat.
Nady/Swisher
Gardner.
Without Arod I would put Ransom 8th moving everyone up but for Gardner.
This lineup is as good as any. The only thing that concerns me is that I wonder if Cano will see this as challenging him or pressuring him. If it is the second, you have to back off him and let him get used to his new swing.
I want to try Cano 5th because when he is swinging well he can carry a team and not just for a week. But you are right in that if he feels to much pressure I would move him down some until later in the season.
Not that it matters but based on that criteria it looks like:
Jeter
Tex
Posada
Arod
Matsui
Damon
Swisher/Nady
Cano
Gardner
Realistically you’d probably have to swap some guys around because this lineup bunches up same side hitters to an extent so perhaps then the optimal lineup is:
Jeter
Tex
Matsui
Arod
Damon
Posada
Cano
Swish/Nady
Gardner
But no matter how it shakes out. If all these guys perform to 80% of their ability its pure gold. I’d say Damon, Posada and Matsui are all relatively interchangeable for this exercise.
Agreed with that last statement. As I said above, the only reason I had Tex 5 instead of 2 is bc 2 generally has less people on base.
The #2 guy is one of the best three hitters on the team, likely one of the best two hitters if the team isn’t willing to put a stud #1. He and the #4 guy are interchangeably good and to decide who goes where, you pick the better OBP guy for second and the better SLG guy for fourth. Tex and ARod profile very similar, with ARod better at both.
That makes sense. I guess it’s just my brain rebelling at Tex batting second.
If only we had Robbie Cano Circa 2008. Then you could swap him and Posada out and have a VERY circular lineup based on Sky’s rules.
Jeter
Tex
Cano
Arod
Damon
Swish/Nady
Matsui
Posada
Gardner
I think that lineup would solve the issue of Tex not having enough guys to drive in as Posada’s OBP would guarantee Tex seeing some opportunities. Also Cano would theoretically get more pitches to hit in front of Arod which would hide his biggest offensive deficiency to an extent (pitch selection) But of course Cano would have to hit .340 again to make this work because he’s not going to make it up with walks.
Posada is as slow as whale turd and a double play guy.He cannot bat 3rd.Best Yankee line-up;
Gardner CF – The sparkplug
Jeter SS – moves him over
Damon LF – better power than credited with
TEX 1B – obviously
Matsui DH – Serious and in shape
Nadi RF – contract year
Cano 2b- he’ll force his way up the order
Posada C – why do people fall in love with this guy?
Ransom 3b – let’s hope.
The point of the article was that statistically, you should have your best hitters up top, not the fastest sparkplugs and guys who can move people over. And the reason people fall in love with Posada is bc when healthy, he is the third best hitter on this team.
Very cool extrapolation of stats, Moshe. Must read that book sometime. What does it say about guys who LACK speed? I wonder about the wisdom of having Posada 2nd when he can’t go from first to 3rd on a single to right, can’t score from 2nd on most singles, and can’t score from first on an A-Rod double.
Posada would be the worst #2 hitter of all time.he’s a double play waiting ot happen and strikes out too, not ot mention he’d clog the base paths for the runners behind him.
GArdner is the best choice ofr a lead off hitter.
He bats lefty, is a threat to beat out a bunt and as he gets smarter and smarter will learn to torture pitchers who will fear walking him and watcihng him steal.