I have suggested on various occasions this offseason that the Yankees flip Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon at the top of the batting order. Late last month, I supported that notion with the following:
The one element that supports keeping things as they are is Damon’s speed, as he is a much better base stealer than Jeter at this point. However, the remainder of the data points in the opposite direction. Unless Jeter’s poor season was a sign of a steep decline, Derek is better at reaching base than Damon, with a 30 point edge in OBP over their careers. However, Damon is less prone to the strikeout (12.1 K% to 17.1 for Jeter) and is significantly better at keeping the ball off the ground (1.33 GB/FB compared to 2.36). Essentially, this means that Damon is able to put up similar numbers to Jeter while making more contact and hitting fewer ground balls, both qualities that help avoid rally killing double plays and strikeouts from the #2 slot. Finally, Damon has a bit more power than Jeter, another element that suggests flipping them would lead to more runs.
Although we have gone over this point many times, I must point out that Joseph P. over at RAB added yet another piece of data regarding double plays that further supports the move:
Many have suggested this off-season that the Yanks flip Jeter and Damon in the order. The logic goes that Jeter’s grounders won’t cause two outs and kill a baserunner. But what about Damon? Yes, his GIDP rate is low, but is that a function of his being a leadoff man? One might think so at first, but a look at Walsh’s article shows that this is not the case. In fact, Johnny has one of the best all-time GIDP per situation ratios. In his career he’s faced 1,373 opportunities to hit into a DP, but has done so only 75 times for a rate of 0.055. That’s good for the fourth best rate on Walsh’s chart, behind all-time leader Joe Morgan, Mickey Rivers, and Darryl Strawberry. This has led to 79 double plays avoided, sixth all time.
Basically, while Jeter has become increasingly prone to the double play, Damon remains historically good at avoiding them. The data keeps piling up, and it points solely in the direction of a change at the top of the order. Let’s hope Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman read our blog and RAB in their spare time.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
11 Responses to One Last Post On Flipping Damon and Jeter
Leave a Reply
TIQ IQ
Jetes has been sucking all kind of bad in the field at the WBC. Hopefully it’s just rust – he looks awful.
Yeah, it doesnt get much worse, and now everyone will forget that he had a decent season defensively last year. Maybe he will become underrated defensively.
Keep Jeter at the second hole I think Johnny damon’s ability to take and folu off pitches ad his spped is best suited for lead off my and Jeter is a perfect situational hitter-Bythe way think the red sox fans have noticed that Brett Gardner is having a much better spring thn the golden boy Jacoby Ellsbury-
Jeter is no longer the perfect situational guy, because he hits too many grounders, helping him snuff out rallies. And who cares about fouling off pitches if all we are doing is flipping them? He can do that from the 2 hole as well.
Moshe, I love the flip ‘em idea. If Gardner could be a good leadoff hitter, a Gardner, Jeter, Damon order would nice.
At this point, that might be a lot to put on Gardner. With him hitting 9th, you get the same effect everytime through except the first.
Very true.
First off Jeter is done as Yankee after this contract. There is really no role for him and with younger players becoming more ready the writing is on wall. If he doesn’t know it now he will soon enough. He’s had a great run.
Flipping Jeter and Damon should also be considered so Damon can be more easily platooned. Damon is just not that damn good. The only reason he had a great overall season last year is he hit a career best against right handed pitching. His babip against right handed pitching was .339 compared to his career average of .306. Add to that he had an ops against lefties of .705 and .710 the last 2 years and his ba last year against them was a paltry .258.
Both Nady and Swisher are better against lefties.
I would not platoon Damon. However, to keep him rested, I would sit him against the really tough lefties. In regard to Jeter, He will be a Yankee until he retires. We may not think it the most prudent move, but they are almost certain to resign him.
Scott I,
I have the same feeling as you that Jeter does not have an obvious role with the Yankees after this contract. However, I cannot imagine him playing elsewhere. He has kept himself pretty healthy and can make the transition to the outfield, where I suspect he will be fine defensively and hit around .280-.320 with 8-12 HRs. Assuming the economics and years workout, then the Yankees will keep him for more years. I wonder about Jeter’s makeup and specifically how he will tolerate not being “the man” from a salary standpoint. So many of these athletes have trouble adjusting to the ego-smashing impact of growing old. I hope Jeter can navigate that better than most.
Moshe,
This is very interesting analysis. As much as I love Jeter, I cursed him very often last year with GIDPs. Do you have any trend info on GIDPs for Jeter year-on-year? I suspect that he was pretty bad among second hole hitters last year and that his proponsetity to hit into GIDPs is way up over the last couple of years.
His propensity to hit grounders in general is much higher in the last 4 seasons than it was earlier. While I dont have GIDP rate numbers per AB, eyeballing the numbers show a pretty high increase in GIDP over the last 2 years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS