For the next few weeks, I’ll be taking both big picture and more detailed looks at the Yankee minor league system. For now, I’m going to give me best initial guesses at the Yankee minor league starting rotations. The Yankees are very deep at the upper ranks, and would be even deeper had they not lost Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Ivan Nova, Daniel McCutchen, Chase Wright, and Jason Jones to the Rule V draft, trades, and waivers.
Scranton/Wilkes Barre Yankees
- Phil Hughes
- Ian Kennedy
- Alfredo Aceves
- Jason Johnson
- Kei Igawa
The Scranton Yankees easily boast the strongest rotation in the International League. Hughes and Kennedy have proven to be studs at the Triple-A level, and the other three should post very good numbers. Johnson and Igawa are dead weight here, but are necessary to fill starting spots when the inevitable call-ups occur with the other three. A healthy Yankee rotation and a strong push from certain Double-A players could result in a demotion. Alan Horne will likely also displace one of these guys once the weather warms up.
Trenton Thunder
- George Kontos
- Zach McAllister
- Eric Hacker
- Christian Garcia
- Humberto Sanchez
The final two spots in the Trenton rotation are really dependent upon whether or not the Yankees want to move Garcia or Sanchez to the bullpen right away. Trenton promises to be very fun to watch. Hacker is off the radar a bit, but if he can manage to stay healthy he could be a highly-ranked prospect by the end of the season. McAllister continues to be underrated by observers from outside the organization. George Kontos is the loser of the Scranton rotation sweepstakes, and will hope for an injury so that he can move up. Kontos will be Rule V eligible soon, so he’s hoping to play his way to the 40-man roster.
Tampa Yankees
- Wilkins De La Rosa
- Jairo Heredia
- Ryan Pope
- Dellin Betances
- Jeremy Bleich
This is an interesting group of pitchers. Betances and Heredia are very strong prospects for very different reasons. Heredia is a young pitcher with a lot of finesse and polish, but is working on improving his above-average stuff. Dellin Betances is starting to get old, and is finally starting to make up for a lack of polish and finesse with his dynamic stuff. Both will be exciting to watch. Ryan Pope remains at Tampa after a sub-standard second half. Jeremy Bleich’s Stanford polish should serve him well in High-A, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitches in Trenton by July. De La Rosa is still probably headed to the bullpen, but the Yankees have him starting for now.
Lance Pendleton could be a sleeper if De La Rosa returns to the bullpen. Pendleton was drafted as a senior out of Rice University’s College World Series team back in 2005, but injuries derailed him up until now. He was strong in Charleston, and now finally gets to be challenged by better hitters.
Charleston River Dogs
- Adam Olbrychowski
- Andrew Brackman
- Casey Erickson
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Manuel Barreda
This is a very difficult rotation to predict. Adam O. could wing up in the bullpen. Casey Erickson could find himself held back for short-season ball again. Arodys Vizcaino and Manny Barreda could end up in extended spring training and then Staten Island. Noel Castillo could push someone back. Ryan Zink could start. However, this is my best guess. If reality works out like my guess, then Charleston’s rotation is all about power. Between Vizcaino, Barreda, Adam O., and Brackman, Charleston has four players who can jack it up to 95+ on occasion. However, expect a ton of walks.
The Yankees are fantastically deep in minor league starting rotations. The return of Jason Jones and Ivan Nova from the Rule V draft could make them even deeper. Nova would probably return to Tampa, while Jones might have to stick with the Trenton bullpen.
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19 Responses to Minor League Preview: First Look at Rotations
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TIQ IQ
Nice writeup, EJ. Each rotation seems like they’ll be fun to watch.
Total awesomeness. A few points: I think Sanchez is going to be in the bullpen, with Pope moving up. At that point, maybe Brackman moves up to Tampa, unless Nova is returned. Also, Aceves and Hughes are likely to end up on the MLB team at some point, which means Kontos moves up. I would love to see McCallister pull a Joba/Kennedy and take a spot on SWB by season’s end.
Agreed on Sanchez. Should make things a bit more interesting.
I agree with you on the first three rotations but I differ w/ charleston. I actually posted this in a comment secion @ pending pinstripes it’s my own ideas so I’m not ripping anybody off.
Charleston-
Manny Banuelos
Arodys Vizcaino
DJ Mitchell
Brett Marshall
Nik Turley
I’m a huge banuelos fan and think he could move pretty quickly due to his refined offspeed repertoire and handedness. He sat about 89-91 last season with the fb and if he added andy strength this off season to bring the fire up to 92-94 he should absolutely kill low a ballers and move up to tempa pretty quickly. Arodys was good in short season last year and should be ready to take on long season work. Mitchell pitched for 2 years at clemson and pinstripes plus loves him so he should be ready to start in long season. As for the highschoolers I get the impression turley is the most polished of the three with a very projectable body- 6’6″ very skinny. The tall lefty with 2 decent off speed pitches and decent fb command should be enough to secure a charleston rotation spot. The last spot should probably go to marshall and his electric fastball but they might choose to hold him in extended ST to work on the curveball. If marshall doesnt break with charleston at the beginning of the season my guess to take that spot would be spot would be David Phelps (at least i think thats his name) he was drafted as a DES out of notre dame. Don’t know much about him but his college experience should allow him to adjust to pro ball well.
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I realize now that this is a pretty young rotation and the yanks might throw an older guy in there as a stabilizing force to keep the bullpen from being overworked. I guess you could say this is my ideal charleston rotation. I also don’t think Brackman willbe in charleston very long which is why he’s not included.
I would guess that a bunch of those guys may hang around in extended Spring Training.
So, I don’t disagree with a lot of your reasons. Low-A is always a challenge to predict every year, and there are lots of good arguments for all the guys that you mentioned.
I’m pretty sure that we’ll be seeing Marshall in the short season leagues. He was one of the rawest arms in the draft, and the Yankees have tended to hold their new high schoolers back in recent years. If he winds up at Charleston early in the season, that will be a tremendous vote of confidence from the Yankees.
Phelps was real solid at Staten Island last year, and is up there in the Casey Erickson range in my mind. He’s a nice pitcher whom the Yankees like, but I think that he’ll end up muscled out by the better prospects.
Banuelos is really young. I think he turns 18 after the beginning of the season. I think that with such a crowded rotation, he’ll start in EST.
Just looked it up- ManBan will turn 18 on Friday March 13. You’re right though they’ll probably keep a bunch of those guys in EST because they’re so young. I guess it’s just my personal preference to see them in charleston to see how they fare against better competition. Wouldn’t want to rush them though, I’m sure the yankees know best. The only reason I think Banuelos has a good chance to start out in the long season is that they started Jairo Heredia in Low-A last year at the age of 18 after only pitching in the GCL in 07. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Isn’t Kontos already on the 40-man?
Nope. He’s in his last season before he needs to be added.
EJ, if Garcia/Sanchez are in the pen, who moves up to take that spot?
A couple of possibilities:
1) Someone is bumped from Scranton for Horne (Igawa?)
2) Jason Jones or Ivan Nova returns.
3) Someone like Grant Duff takes the spot.
4) Ryan Pope is promoted.
5) Michael Dunn spends some more time starting.
Sanchez or Garcia could be held in the rotation until Horne returns, and then moved to the bullpen. My money is on #5 if that doesn’t happen.
Garcias only 23 I would hate to see him relegated to the bullpen already.
True, but can he stay healthy in the rotation?
I thought Garcia had a decent ceiling as a starter, no? Why would they move him to the pen? Do they feel he’d have a better chance at remaining healthy out of the pen?
If the Yankees had fewer starting prospects, I don’t think that they would think twice before keeping Garcia in the rotation indefinitely. But he’s been so unhealthy lately that I think they will opt (like they will with Sanchez) for a bullpen assignment eventually. I could be wrong though – they’re keeping him starting for now. The Yankees are generally very reluctant to move someone to the bullpen until they have to.
I should say though that Sanchez would be pushed to the bullpen before Garcia.
Good stuff, EJ. I had no idea you were here, but now I’ve got it bookmarked.
Thanks Phil. Spread the word!
The rotations are loaded from top to bottom. It would be nice to trade some of the excess for some nice bats.
I agree. However, for some reason, trades of minor leaguers are so rare, probably because most teams tend to overvalue their own prospects, so that consensus is difficult.