The Daily News’ Mike Lupica drew an interesting comparison here between Yankee neophyte and Red Sox uberstar, Dustin Pedroia. Lupica, as you’d expect, didn’t do any real analysis, just drawing parallels between the two players’ size and grittiness, so I pulled up the trusty Baseball Cube to try to see if there could possibly be anything to this comp.
I went through a few different phases in thinking about this. My first reaction was, “hey, that’s kind of cool! Maybe Gardner COULD turn into our version of a Pedroia. They’re both 5’9, 5’10 and 180 with an aggressive approach to the game. Maybe there’s something to this!”
At second glance I thought, “Wait a minute! These guys are the same age and Pedroia won an MVP last year, while Gardner struggled to make a major league roster. Isn’t it kind of insane to even try to compare them? Hey, this is Spring Training. These stats mean nothing.”
My third take is, “Let’s take a look at the numbers. What can it hurt, right?”
Like I said, Gardner is behind Pedroia, in terms of age. They are the same age, but Brett had the same year last year that Pedroia had 2 years ago. Despite being the same size and build, a glance at the respective minor league numbers shows that Pedroia showed flashes of power that Gardner never has. Dustin slugged over .500 in both A+ and AA ball while BG has consistently posted slugging numbers around .420. He’s never flashed power over any significant period.
While lacking Pedroia’s power stroke, BG has a clear edge in speed. Pedroia has good wheels, stealing a career high 20 bags last year, but Gardner swiped 50 between AAA and the bigs last year.
They’re both bright hitters who make adjustments. They each have shown clear patterns of drops in statistics upon switching levels, but they quickly learn how to compensate and elevate their games. This is the big hope if you want to hold out for Gardner turning into our Pedroia. You would have to put faith in his ability to make adjustments and raise his level of production. Unfortunately, you can’t really expect anything like this to happen, because you have to rely on projection. Could Gardner turn into a pocket-sized terror, like Pedroia? Yeah, he could, but based on his age and previous power numbers, it’s far from a lock. I really like the kid and I’m rooting for him but, Spring Training numbers or no, it’s still very tough to tell whether he’ll hit enough to be a valuable contributor, let alone a league MVP.
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9 Responses to Gardner is the New Pedroia?
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TIQ IQ
Yeah, I dont see it. I think Gardner needs to be compared to Ellsbury. Many of the scouting types (Law, Callis) said that there is a huge gulf between the players. Gardner can prove them wrong by putting up a solid season. If he OBP’s over .350, he is going to have a huge impact.
What I like about the kid is that he doesn’t strike out much, and since he’s so quick he’ll be able to run out more infield singles that others.
And when he does reach first, he’s pretty good at swiping second, and speed/small ball is something this team hasn’t had in a long time.
I’m really excited to see what he can do this season, I hope they give him a legitimate chance to adjust over the course of the year.
When Pedroia came up, he struggled for a while in the early going.
One of the concerns with gardner is he DOES strikeout too much for a player with limited power.
If he can be somewhere between Pettis and Butler, he’ll be an asset. I’m not crazy about a small ball guy leading off, but if he bats ninth (with lower SLG guys at 1 and 2) that kind of stuff becomes more valuable.
If you can look past his switch hitting Brian Roberts is a good comp for Gardner. There minor league numbers are similar and Roberts kept on improving after he got to MLB.
It is an optimistic comp- we hope he can be Brian Roberts. He seems just as likely to Reggie Willits.
Long has worked with him on his hitting style. He was a slap hitter untill Long and Johnny worked with him. Now he uses his lower body and legs, still has a smaller pivot but, it is smooth and seems to be understated. He will never grow into a power hitter (HRs) but, I see more drive and less soft liners.
Fine example was his triple yesterday, he smoked it.The pitchers will adapt to him but, he has shown a proclivity to “adapt & improvise” also. I hope he will make it easy for me to say “I’ve been pushing his game since last year+.”
Good one, Old Ranger. I think that’s the big hope. He’s shown the ability to adapt at every level and the ability to change and learn new skills. A strict projection of his minor league stats doesn’t show much of a player, but some guys continue to get better and better (Bernie Williams) each year and have the ability to keep learning new skills even at 24,25, 26, 27 while others plateau early. Look at a guy like Stephon Marbury, for the Knicks. Not to change sports on you, but his jumper never improved from his freshman year of college to the present day, whereas guys like Steve Nash and Chris Paul kept getting better and better.
27/09