In an interview over at DRay’s Bay, Will Carroll, the injury guru of Baseball Prospectus, made some startling comments regarding Joba Chamberlain‘s ceiling and ideal role.
A few months ago, Carroll offered a unique perspective regarding Chamberlain’s innings limit by projecting the 23 year-old could toss 170 innings this year without concerns.
During this interview however, in responding to a question about David Price, Carroll had some peculiar predictions in terms of Joba’s role and the type of ceiling he could have as a starter:
It’s funny because with Chamberlain, I think he’s a better RP than SP, but think he’ll end up as an SP. By that I mean that as an RP, he’s probably one of the best in the game, right now. He would be dominant, would take over the closer role eventually, and is probably as good as Papelbon. As an SP, he’s going to be good, a solid #3, but never dominant.
Really, a #3 starter? Never dominant? For a split-second I laughed to myself thinking maybe “RP” stood for righthanded pitcher and “SP” meant switchpitcher. What else could constitute such a pedestrian projection for a guy who has two plus to plus-plus pitches, an above-average to plus curveball and a serviceable changeup?
Does Will remember the type of domination Chamberlain showed last year as a starter. To refresh his memory, Joba threw 65.1 innings, struck out 74 batters, walked 25 and posted a 2.76 ERA while in the rotation. Over his last five starts he had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 37-to-4 over 31.1 innings. If that’s not the work of a frontline starter, I don’t know what is.
And there are a couple questions I would like to pose to Mr. Carroll following his and other writers’ comments regarding Chamberlain.
Why is it, that Price isn’t considered for the closing job in Tampa Bay? Price debuted in the big leagues and filled a hole for the Rays by coming out of the bullpen during the stretch-run of the season. Just like Joba. However, unlike Joba, Tampa’s lefthander did not have the assurance of Mariano Rivera closing games. They do, however, have an injury prone reclamation project (Troy Percival) currently projected as their 9th inning guy.
Furthermore, Price has made only one start in his career up to this point. Not to say he will not succeed as a starter because Price has frontline starter written all him. But, he missed more time with an elbow issue last year than Joba did during his entire bout with shoulder tendinitis, yet only one is deemed an injury prone mess.
To say Price is a better bet than Joba in the rotation is debatable. To say he has ace potential and Chamberlain does not is asinine.
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16 Responses to Carroll: Joba's A #3 Starter At Best
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TIQ IQ
That’s a completely ignorant comment by Carroll.
And a typical anti yankee bias.
I feel that Will Carroll is a back-up beat-writer at best
In reality Joba is a #3 starter though………..this year as a 22 year old. And Joba is MUCH better than Papelbon right now
Well, his numbers as a starter last year were ace numbers, not those of a #3.
And “never dominant”? Please, he posted video game numbers as a starter. I don’t understand why writing for some sort of mass-media publication (which I had BP would avoid becoming) means that you think Joba should be in the bullpen and he can’t be a dominant starter. I thought BP was supposed to be smart. Will Carroll and BP should be ashamed of themselves.
Yeah but I don’t think he’s had the prolonged success that you need to be considered a number 1 guys yet. Thing is, no 22 year old (outside of Felix Hernandez) does. I mean, who’s to say he won’t win 15+ games this year?
Too bad, I like the BP, but I have to place Carroll in the idiot pile for that comment. I mean, how hard is it to open fangraphs.com or baseballreference.com and look at some stats before saying something so stupid. What a dumbass. We all make mistakes, but this seems inconceivably stupid.
Carroll does this all the time- misinformed statements. A lot of people seem to have beef with him.
That’s the understatement of the year.
Joba is still a work in progress (as is every-other 22 year old), most guys come into the league with big numbers. This is the year for him to improve on what he did last year. Unless he has more shoulder problems or can’t go more then 5/6 innings…he is a starter, and should stay there.
As with every kid, he will have his problems this year, he will learn just as others before him have…the talent is there. If things work out, we could end up with 4 #1 starters on the team…this year or next year.
As to the writter…his opinion is his!
The thing that bothers me is the total lack of an argument. He is just stating these things as fact. No stats or history to back him up.
It’s funny because with Chamberlain, I think he’s a better RP than SP, but think he’ll end up as an SP.
No probelm so far. He has a right to think whatever he wants as well as a right to express his opinion.
By that I mean that as an RP, he’s probably one of the best in the game, right now. He would be dominant, would take over the closer role eventually, and is probably as good as Papelbon.
I would say “Better and younger than Papelbon, but I am far from neutral.
As an(sic) SP, he’s going to be good, a solid #3, but never dominant.
And we arrive. Opinion, opinion, Fact out of my butt. He will never be dominant, because I just said so.
This kind of laziness just rubs me the wrong way.
It’s pretty simple. Carroll needs to stick to injury analysis where his expertise are top-notch and invaluable to baseball fans. Once he gets into actual baseball discussions he is lost.
I think this is just a backhanded attempt to say that Joba should be in the bullpen. I doubt he actually thinks this little of Joba.
I would friggin hope so.
I find it ridiculous how just about the entire baseball media seems to think Joba is better suited for the pen…I mean, did they take a snooze while Joba was dominating in the rotation last year?
Yes, it’s an opinion and I may be wrong, but I see Chamberlain as more of a Burnett than a Sabathia and as good as Wang. Wang’s a 3 — is that a bad thing to be? I think Joba’s a good solid starter and meant it as a compliment. Don’t underestimate how highly everyone in baseball regards the very few #1′s out there.
That’s fair, although I think Wang gets a bad rap as a #3. I think it depends on how you look at rotation spots- are there really 60 pitchers in MLB better than Wang? Unlikely.