I admit to loving the wonderful and curious statistics that sabermetricians and other super statheads are gracious enough to enrich my existence with, but by no means would I consider myself a sabermetrician. Rather, I enjoy plucking random metrics from the sabermric ether and using them to lend credence or dispel some of my notions. I really have only a superficial understanding of the numbers, themselves, and am somewhat skeptical regarding the ability of statistics to accurately measure certain aspects of the game.
One of these aspects is “clutch hitting.” The widespread sabermetric stance is that it doesn’t exist, and this has always been at odds with my own observations. Here’s what David Grabiner, in his “Sabermetric Manifesto” says, “if there is an ability, players who hit well in the clutch in the past
will continue to do so. This can be tested, and has been; there is only
very weak evidence of an ability, and it is clear that whatever ability
there is does not mean much in baseball terms.”
I find it hard to believe that Manny Ramirez is not a better clutch hitter than A-Rod. Some players tense up in a big spot while others (like Manny) seem to stay loose and raise their level of focus. However, statheads pretty much across the board, seem to agree on this, so I’ll let it slide, but I can’t help wondering if we’re all approaching this from the wrong angle.
Maybe it’s not a “clutch” factor we’re looking for but simply the ability to hit better pitching. We’ve all seen minor leaguers who mash at one level, yet can’t hack it at the next. Isn’t it sensible to think that major leaguers are the same way? Isn’t a hitter’s ability to hit top pitching a better way to evaluate a player than looking at his numbers in “bases loaded” “scoring position, 2 out” “late and close” or “runners on” situations, particularly if you’re a team like the Yankees who is very interested in how a player will perform in playoff situations, where the pitching is much better?
In the traditional splits I see on ESPN and BR, I never see the stat: “average against pitchers with sub 3.50 ERAs”, but wouldn’t that be a great way to evaluate whether Adam Dunn is a guy who just runs up his hrs and rbis on bad pitching while failing in the big spots? Those “clutch” statistics don’t take into account how good the pitcher is against them.
I think this stat would also reflect on clutch situations. In truly big spots, you will typically be facing the best reliever on the opposing team and the opposing hurler will be reaching back for something extra, which may make them an even better pitcher. Maybe A-Rod is not a bad clutch hitter, maybe he is just not a guy who gets great cuts against pitchers with top-notch stuff. I also feel that there are guys who sabermetricians fall in love with (like Dunn) who rack up huge numbers against poor pitching and it skews their OPS and value stats. I think it might be a good stat to use to differentiate a truly great hitter from one who gets by in that way.
My question is to sabermetricians and non-sabermetricians alike. Is there a definable (in your opinion) ability to hit better pitching and is it valuable to promote this statistic as an important evaluative metric? Do you care whether a guy shows the ability to hit against better pitchers or not? For sabermetricians: is there already a stat for ability to hit top pitching or something like it?
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19 Responses to Calling All Sabermetricians
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Most saber people will tell you that clutch exists, it just does not have a huge effect-maybe a few runs a year for the most clutch players. I think your other point is very interesting- I wonder if anyone has ever sat dwon and done something like this- not regarding stats against a particular set of pitchers under a certain benchmark, but rather a way to weigh all of a players numbers based on who they faced, so that numbers amassed against good pitching weighs more than those gained vs. bad pitching.
I certainly believe there is a few players that perform slightly under their skill set in “clutch” situations but I will dispute the fact that there are players that perform better (over a reasonable sample size). Plus, as oldpep says, Arod has had good clutch years and bad ones. Looking at such a small sample size is dangerous. That said, it really doesn’t matter. A run is a run is a run whether it’s in the 3rd or the 8th and so Alex Rodriguez will continue to be just as valuable.
As far as good pitching I’m not aware of a stat regarding this but I will say this: a batter might have a higher K rate, lower BB rate, or hit more GBs against better pitching but their BABIP against non-GB pitchers should be the same regardless of the pitchers ability because that really has nothing to do with a pitcher and everything to do with a hitter. I’ts interesting, but I think all you’d find is that a) hitters K more against good pitchers and walk more against bad ones and b) hitters lose power against GB pitchers.
About your first point, most sabermatricians have come over to the side that clutch does exist, it just doesnt mean that much.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-color-of-clutch/
So true, on (b) one reason CMW is so under rated, he isn’t a strike-out pitcher. (a) is also a given. Damn, Alex, you are good. Thanks for bringing that up, I hadn’t really thought of it that way.
And now that I think about it, your second statement does not really hold much water. BABIP should not depend solely on the hitter. For example, we know BABIP depends on LD%. I would guess that hitters hit fewer LD’s off of better pitchers, in which case BABIP would be lower against those pitchers. That would bring all rate stats down.
Let me amend this by saying that each pitcher has a certain pitching skill- preventing line drives, or inducing ground balls, or not giving up very many HR’s, and these all factor into BABIP, so they should all show up in contextualized-for-pitcher offensive stats.
GB/ball in air is controlled by a pitcher but LD/FB is entirely reliant on the hitter and random chance. The pitcher just doesn’t have any significant control. So GB pitchers will have a better BABIP against, but other than that it’s up to the hitter.
I have seen that study (maybe by Tango if I remember correctly), but it still makes little sense to me.
My hypothesis is that, in general, better pitchers throw harder, have better breaking balls, change speed better, and have better command. Most hitters have some kind of weakness, whether it be catching up to a really good fastball, a great breaking ball, or hitting balls in certain zones. Some hitters are very well rounded and can hit all kinds of pitches while others may put up huge numbers against poor pitchers, esp in slugging, hrs, etc. – not just BABIP – while being relatively helpless against a really good pitcher who can exploit the holes in their swing. I think that’s reasonable.
I’d like to address a point in the 4th paragraph “We’ve all seen minor leaguers who mash at one level, yet can’t hack it at the next. Isn’t it sensible to think that major leaguers are the same way?”
As Bill James said 20 years ago-’minor league statistics (when adjusted for all pertinent factors) are just as predictive as major league stats.
I think the problem in accepting that is twofold:
the tendency to think that MLB players stats are more predictive than they really are.
and
the failure to adjust the stats correctly.
As for clutch hitting: Arod has had season of fantastic ‘clutch’ numbers (one of them just two years ago.) Judging a guy’s whole career off of the few games we get to see that player (and just as importantly, every other player) and 1 or two seasons of results is very misleading.
Another thing I think a lot of people overlook is the clutch things that, for some reason, have stopped being considered clutch. Things like getting on in a tie game (whatever the inning). Especially when you follow up by stealing a base or making a great baserunning play (both of which Arod does all of the time, BTW).
Even a great fielding play qualifies.
The biggest problem is perception. Watching that 2004 regular season game against Boston, Jim Kaat says of a fielding play Arod made late in the game “Arod should win MVP for that play alone.” But when anybody talks about that game, Arod doesn’t get mentioned. Jeter does.
Must admit, stats and I are coming together very slowly but, I have always thought it is the make-up of the individual. Some can stay calm and asses the situation then let their God given talent take over and succeed (or fail). Others can’t slow things down enough to put the pressure where it belongs…on the pitcher. As you said, the pitcher makes a big difference also, if you are trying to jack one out against Mo…I think it would be much harder then against say Veras. So, I agree, pitching makes as much of a difference as the make-up of the player.
When someone can quantify these two points (impossible) I will be a believer, until then…! I’ll go with the hands and body language for my reads on clutch or not…the results are not the answer, it is did he put the ball in play with something on it.
I can see why sabermetricians don’t believe in clutch hitting as it relates to statistics over the course of an entire season, because one ‘clutch situation’ doesn’t amount to much in the grande total of a 162 game season, as it can be made up against other weaker teams or pitchers.
Where I think the concept of clutch hitting (which I agree with) comes into context is the playoffs, where every single out matters, and everyone is throwing their best stuff.
If a team like the Yankees, who expects to be in the postseason every year, started to look at a ‘clutch’ type of stat when deciding between players, they could find players who do hit reasonably well against pitchers with sub-3.50 ERAs or pitchers who can throw 95+ mph. Stats like this would translate into successful hitters in the playoffs, and less guys who tense up or struggle against top pitching. It would be interesting to see that kind of stat for guys like Adam Dunn or A-Rod or Manny who put up great numbers in regular season, but vary in success in postseason.
So I believe clutch hitting does exist, it is just more important in the playoffs, where every pitch is thrown as hard or sharp as the pitcher can.
Mickey Mantle was an ‘Adam Dunn’ type hitter-lots of walks, HRs, and Ks. He did very well in postseason play.
Willie Mays was a bit more of a line drive type hitter-he struck out a lot less often than Mantle, walked less, and probably hit more doubles and triples. His numbers in the postseason aren’t very good at all.
When guys like Bobby Richardson can have not one, but two fantastic world series and Willie Mays is crappy in most of the ones he appeared in, I can’t put a lot of credence into ‘clutch’ being based on postseason play.
Besides, Arod’s overall numbers in postseason are pretty darn good.
Agreed- basing the stat on postseason would have you signing Eckstein to start at short.
Mickey Mantle hit .365 in 1957 – has Dunn ever even hit .265?? Totally different types of hitters, imho. I know that sabermetrics discount average, and, in the past, it’s been totally overrated, but I think it’s swung the other way now, so that average is now being completely disregarded.
I have to agree, he really wasn’t much of an Dunn like hitter (at least at the beginning of his career). 85% contact rate in 57 combined with that power and speed theres no way he could hit anywhere under .300. Dunn’s CT% last year was under 70%.
Nice use of CT%. It’s not a stat I hear that often. I like guys who have high CT% and high OBP – it indicates that they’re not just mistake hitters.
I never meant to imply Mantle was a good comp for Dunn. My point was that he was among the league leaders in strikeouts throughout his career-a low contact hitter (relative ti his era). (BTW his final career BA was under 300.)
The original post mentioned a high number of Ks & HRs being a possible way to determine a lack of ‘clutch’, using Arod and Dunn against Manny. I compared Mantle to Mays, not Dunn, when showing that high K guys can be clutch and that lower K guys (like Mays) can have bad postseasons.
[...] Tom Gaffney of The Yankee Universe has a great article up today that questions the Sabermetric measure of clutch. He would rather know how well certain hitters do against pitchers with a sub-3.50 ERA. [...]