We’ve spent some time delving into the hated Red Sox, but there’s a new kid in town that’s being virtually ignored by most of us who have become so accustomed to the Beantowners being the Big Bad we need to knock off every year. Are the Rays for real, or was last year a fluke? Well, probably the greatest predictor of success (other than being declared “dead” by Chris “Mad Dog” Russo”) is the rotation , so let’s have some fun with the respective starters and compare the two clubs.
For this post, I’m mainly using the CHONE projections as most of the buzz I’ve been hearing lately is that they’re liked slightly better than Marcel. The Bill James projections are generally disliked as being overly optimistic. I’m also going to pair similar pitchers together for better comparison rather than matching them up by their place in the rotation. For example:
…………………W-L ERA IP WHIP
Kazmir: 11-7 3.58 161 1.27
Burnett: 12-7 3.88 167 1.34
I chose to pair these two, because of their relative similarity in terms of IP, and tendency to get nagging injuries. These two match up very closely, with Kazmir having a slight edge in ERA and WHIP, while Burnett is slightly more durabe (believe it or not) and gains the extra win. I’d call this one even, because Burnett is coming off of an innings-eating year and seems to have figured out how to throw without max-effort, thus avoiding injury. Both hurlers have ace potential.
Shields: 12-9 3.69 195 1.17
Sabathia: 16-8 3.41 211 1.18
Again, very similar numbers for the two top guns, with almost identical WHIPs. CC gets a slight edge for increased innings (and so wins), though Shields has a better track record if these two match up in the post-season.
Price: 4-5 4.50 79 1.49
Joba: 8-4 3.39 101 1.26
Throw out the projections on this one. Joba only wins b/c he has a little more track record. I’d call this virtually even as both these guys are soon-to-be superstars if they can stay healthy. Joba has the edge on track record, but Price has less injury history – wash.
Garza: 10-9 4.04 167 1.34
Wang: 8-6 4.47 133 1.49
CHONE kills Wanger on this one. Marcel has him at 11-4, 3.79. CHONE apparently lowballs players coming off of injury, regardless of the nature of the injury. Wang should be fine, but these two are pretty similar, once everything is sussed out. Both pretty much rely on one pitch: a hard, heavy heater. Once again, I’ll throw out the projections and call it a draw. On past performance, Wang has a clear edge, but off of last year, it’s certainly Garza, so… wash.
Sonnanstine: 11-9 4.00 180 1.24
Pettitte: 9-9 4.31 167 1.43
Again, remarkably similar production, with an edge to Sonnanstine for his lower projected WHIP.
Based on these projections, these staffs are incredibly close. I’d call them even. Not only do they project to give you similar production, but they are mirror images of each other, in many ways. Burnett and Kazmir are very similar in their nagging injury history, Wang and Garza both throw 95 mph sinkers, and Joba and Price are both great, young pitcher who are making the transitions from spot duty in the pen to full-time starter. What do you guys think? Who has the edge, here?
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12 Responses to Rotations: Rays vs. Yanks
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TIQ IQ
Nice, Tom. Basically, I think it could come down to 2 players—Andy S. and Andy P. Sonnanstine, in particular, is a remarkable pitcher and could be the best 5th starter in the AL East if he can pitch to his capabilities. He’s got tremendous control and knows how to go after guys, even with lesser stuff (he’s like a fully realized version of IPK). Andy will have to stay healthy and overperform a bit in order to best that, something I think he’s also capable of doing.
I think that the Rays are due for some injuries in that rotation after getting something like 30 starts from all starters last season. I think Joba can be the key. If he stays healthy and pitches like he did last season. I think the Yankees will have the best rotation in the sport.
How does CHONE get away with Pettitte only pitching 160 innings? He has been over 200 for three years now. No reason to believe anything differently will occur this year. Wins and whip then yea I can see a decline, but not innings by 40 or 50.
Those projection systems err on the side of caution- low innings totals for aging or injury prone guys, low win totals for everybody.
Tripp,
The Marcel projections were better for Pettitte. I suspect his age, combined with an off year trips some sort of calculation for a steady decline in stats.
The big issue (especially with so many new pitchers for the Yanks) is how new pitchers’ performance will degrade bc of the Yanks poor defense. The Rays have one of the top defensive teams in the game.
My guess is that the Rays’ starters outperform the Yanks’ for that reason.
Matthew,
As these projections are based on past performance, mainly on last year’s performance, neither team’s projections would change much due to respective defense. The Rays defense will be just as good, but no better than last year, while the Yankees will probably improve a little bit from last year, with Teixeira at first, especially if Gardner gets the nod in center. If anything, it’s the Yanks who will have the improved defense this year.
I think it is generous to give Price a ‘wash’ with Joba. This guy has faced a handful of major league batters out of the bullpen, whereas Joba has dominated lineups in several appearances last season, and lights out in the bullpen most of the year before.
Phil Hughes looked good for several innings replacing the Rocket in the playoffs against Cleveland, was a highly touted prospect with great stuff, and started the year on the backend of our rotation last year. You all saw what happened, as he and IPK struggled.
The only question mark on Joba right now is his durability, which has yet to be proven for Price as well. If I remember correctly, he was recovering from arm injuries as recently as the beginning of last year.
I’m not suggesting David Price won’t have some success. But while he might have a chance of being good, doesn’t Joba have the chance to great?
I agree with Mr Gaffney about defense. The Yankees defense will improve for the reasons he stated, and having somebody besides Abreu in RF has to help.
I don’t see how Shields is rated equal to Sabathia. His career ERA+ is 114 while Sabathia’s is 121. More importantly, over the past three seasons Sabathia has 140. 143, and 162 while Shields has 97, 117, and 125.
As far as postseason goes, each has 25 IP, which is a tiny sample size.
I gave the final edge to Sabathia, Oldpep, though I might not have made that completely clear. I’m still a little concerned about postseason, though, with Wang and CC, even though it is such a small sample size.
Theoretically, it doesn’t matter how defense affects each individual pitcher when comparing rotations, although it affects the end outcome for the team. I think its fairly safe to say that all things being equal, the Yankees have a better rotation here.
Our defense has improved over the winter, and its worth noting that three of our five starters could theoretically be 200+ strikeout players. The load won’t be as heavy as in previous years.
I know you gave him a slight edge. My point was that CC is more than slightly better-at least looking at what’s happened in their careers so far. Over the past three seasons, CC is a much better pitcher.