SG over at RLYB used the Diamond Mind baseball simulator to project the Yankees’ 2009 season with Joba in the rotation, and then compared that to the projections that had Joba in the bullpen. His results were throughly unsurprising:
Scenario 1
Avg W: 95
Avg L: 67
Avg RF: 843
Avg RA: 709
Div: 41.0
WC: 34.0
Playoffs: 75.0Scenario 2
Avg W: 94
Avg L: 68
Avg RF: 843
Avg RA: 719
Div: 40.0
WC: 32.5
Playoffs: 72.5As you can see, the team is about a win better with Joba in the rotation for 2009. Given the margin of error with this type of statistical model that’s not necessarily significant. However, if you look at 2009 as part of the development plan to build Joba up to eventually be a 200 inning starter, there’s just no reasonable argument to put Joba in the pen.
Although the data is not neccessarily statistically significant, I am not surprised that it suggests the Yankees would be better served with Joba in the rotation. A solid starter is worth more than even an excellent set-up man. The Yankees are therefore maximizing their return on Chamberlain’s skills by using him in the rotation. As SG says, they need to have him pitch as a starter this season if they want him to build enough arm strength to become a top of the rotation horse.
On the other hand, Jobber needs to be in the bullpen!!!! Shorten the game!!! McLoooth!!!!
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13 Responses to Joba's Role: Running The Numbers
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TIQ IQ
You guys don’t know what you’e talkin about!!! THE IDEA that the Yanks are better with a guy with a 2.64 ERA in the rotation (Joba) and a kid with a 9+ ERA (Hughes) in the minors is absurd!!! WE ALL KNOW that if the Yanks were to put the best team on the field it would be put the guy with the 2.64 ERA as a starter into the 8th inning, and put the guy with the 9+ ERA in the rotation as the 5th starter. OK? We all KNOW that’s the better team alright? OK?
I know I killed Cashman for not trading this Hughes bust for Santaner, but as long as I get my wish of Jobber to the pen, his 9+ ERA is fine with me. OK? Jobber HAS to be in the pen!!! It shortens the damn game!
Mike, it’s pretty quiet in the booth without Dog, huh? Getting a bit crazy talking to yourself?
Nah, U know, THE IDEA that I wouldn’t be able to do the show by myself is crazy!!! I’m much better when I can just state my opinions as fact even though evidence suggests otherwise and nobody calls me out on it because it’s my show… All the bandwagon jumping middle-age Yankee fans who don’t know shit about baseball absolutely love me!!!
I know I promised to get an occasional co-host right when Dog left, but shhhhhhh don’t tell anybody, I never intended to do that anyway…
Are U kiddin me?! Whaddya think, i’m nuts or somethin?
THE IDEA that I’m gonna let someone else come on this show and possibly contradict my opinions from time to time, is absurd!
McLouth is a bargain, isn’t he?
Yeah, he’s “my guy!!!”
THEE IDEA that we’re somehow gonna leave open the CF spot for some unproven kid – what’s his name again Eddy? Low-Jack?! – is nuts?! Tha Yanks will never do that! U need a proven guy. U can’t just expect some kid to produce!!!
But don’t worry, a day after he hits 2 doubles and steals a couple of bases in his bebut, i’ll have him all figured out. For example: Tha Yanks should sit this kid on the bench!! He’s so good at stealing bases, keep him as your pinch-runner at the end of games!!! It shortens the damn game! I don’t get it! Why are they “converting” into an everyday player?! Just leave him where he’s good at!
Sorry mike, i like long games that we win as opposed to theoretical shorter games that we may or may not have the lead, assuming Joba is THAT much better than Bruney/Marte/Melancon/et al.
Shhhh!!! Don’t distract Mike with rational thought!!!
You guys can debate all you want about Joba being Starter or Reliever, ok? I don’t care, ok? And I don’t even wanna hear about it. Don’t wanna hear. All I’ll say is this: JOBA’S GOT NOTHING ON TIMMY! . . . TIMMY!!!
And you Mike can say all you want, but the CEO of Sirius told me he would never entertain the idea of you hosting a show on Sirius. NEVER!!!
Take that, Mike. . .
Yo Eddy! Who tha heck is this Mehlankon kid?! Do these guys really think were gonna start talking about some minor league kids here? THA IDEAR that we’re gonna do that on this show is crazy!
Yo Dog WTF R U doin here?! Go back to sattelite oblivion! (I’m looking into the camera right now everybody, Victa, can U get a good shot of me here?!) Listen up Dog, as long as i’m here, U WILL NEVER CATCH ME!
(Heeheheeehe. . .) There won’t be any need for that, Mikey! (Heeheheheheee. . .) Cuz I’ll be way ahead of you!!!
(Heeheheeehe. . .)
HAHA, classic stuff.
Ah-ihgt, time now to welcome in Jon Heyman, Jon have U heard anything about the Yankees moving Jobber back to tha pen, in his “original” role?
Heyman: No, Mike, it sounds as though they’re pretty serious about “converting” him into a starter, so unless anything unforseen happens, for example Mariano goes down with an injury, it doesn’t look like we’re gonna get our wish.
Boy Jon, I’ll tell ya, god forbid I don’t wanna see Mo go down, but i’d just wanna see it, just so that way, tha Yanks wouldn’t be able to withstand the pressure from the media, and they’d have to put him back in to his “original role.”
Here Heyman tries to respond but I immediately cut him off because I reminded myself that I have somethin else to say (i’m thinkin to myself ‘screw Chernoff! It’s my doggone show! He needs me more than I need him!), so I go,
No, Jon, lemme tell ya, I think even if Mo is healthy (god please, have a car run his Panamian ass over…), Jobber should still be in tha pen. That way, he can be the heir to Mariano, and right now it shortens tha damn game!!! I don’t undrstand what they’re doin. Why are they messin around with him, and tryin this new stuff of “converting” him into a starter? Just leave him where he’s good at!
(silence)
Jon, are U there Jon? Did we lose Jon, Eddy?
Heyman: No i’m still here Mike…
Oh, go ahead, Jon…
Heyman: Oh, can I talk now?
Yeah, yeah, go ahead Jon…
Heyman: Yeah, U know I agree with you Mike, to me, Joba belongs in the pen. In order to win a championship U have to have a dominant 8th inning guy. You have to have that great setup man. The Yanks don’t have that right now (Heyman’s thinkin, ‘Although Bruney did have a 1.93 ERA in 34 IP last season, Hey, screw that! The “stat guys” made up that stat! That’s one of those Hybrid-metric stats’). U know I agree with U on that one.
Yeah, you’re right Jon, I think Saint Joe was right when he accused Cashman of becoming too obssesed with stats U know? Stats don’t matter, we all know that. The game is about emotion. Joba can’t be a starter. I don’t see it. His body isn’t built like a starter. (for those out there wondering, I got my MD license in the same Med School Jorge Posada got his…)
Ah-ight Jon, any way the Yanks can get my man McLooth from Pittsburgh? U know I love that kid. Let’s give ‘em Hughes, uh.. give ‘em Melky, I know Kennedy’s not so high in other teams’ eyes right now, but they’re the Pirates, U know? Oh, and if they’re still not happy, give ‘em that Mehlankon kid, or give ‘em that Low-Jack kid. Whaddya think Jon? Think that’ll be enough to get him?
Heyman: Mike, he actually sgined a 3-year, $15 million dollar extension, so I don’t think he’s goin anywhere right now.
OH HE DID??? 3 YEARS FOR 15???? OH MY GOD!!! THAT’S SUCH A BARGAIN!!!