The comments to the previous post (h/t Steve) brought up an issue that I felt deserved its own time in the sun. For much of the last two seasons, Derek Jeter’s penchant for hitting into double plays has prompted me to contend that he should be moved out of the 2 hole to the lead-off spot, with Johnny Damon sliding down a notch. Looking at the numbers this morning, I think the statistical evidence supports the idea.
I am making a few assumptions about lineups to make this point. You want your better OBP player to bat first, with a better contact hitter batting second. You would also prefer to have your more powerful hitter batting second rather than first. I am also assuming that Jeter and Damon are equally skilled bunters, such that the ability to move a runner over does not come into play here.
When considering these factors, it seems obvious that a switch should be made. The one element that supports keeping things as they are is Damon’s speed, as he is a much better base stealer than Jeter at this point. However, the remainder of the data points in the opposite direction. Unless Jeter’s poor season was a sign of a steep decline, Derek is better at reaching base than Damon, with a 30 point edge in OBP over their careers. However, Damon is less prone to the strikeout (12.1 K% to 17.1 for Jeter) and is significantly better at keeping the ball off the ground (1.33 GB/FB compared to 2.36). Essentially, this means that Damon is able to put up similar numbers to Jeter while making more contact and hitting fewer ground balls, both qualities that help avoid rally killing double plays and strikeouts from the #2 slot. Finally, Damon has a bit more power than Jeter, another element that suggests flipping them would lead to more runs.
I think the change would make plenty of sense, but it is unlikely to happen. Jeter is seen as the prototypical 2 hitter, and Damon has been leading off for his entire career. I doubt Joe Girardi is going to do anything novel at the top of the order.
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3 Responses to Flipping Damon and Jeter
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TIQ IQ
I doubt they would consider such a move just because old habits die hard. Jeter has always been perceived as a #2 hitter while Damon has been perceived as a leadoff guy. For that reason, based entirely on perception, I doubt they would make the switch.
I’m not saying they shouldn’t though. Just that I doubt they would even consider it if it were proposed.
Jeter was taking less pitches in 2008 as evidenced by his decline in walks, not good for a #2, and there were certain crucial times when I couldn’t believe the bunt sign wasn’t on for someone who lacks power. I just hope the Jeter pampering isn’t continuing under Girardi as it was with Torre.
Yeah, but assuming even a moderate recovery, he reaches base enough to bat leadoff, and has enough speed left to handle it. In regard to the pampering, that is wishful thinking- with all the steroid stuff, Jeter’s status as the game’s golden boy is only growing. There’s no way they stop with the special treatment.