BA released their annual presitigious list of the top-100 prospects in baseball. Its a very good list, although I think that they overrate a few guys (Colby Rasmus at #3), and underrate some others (Matt LaPorta at #27, Josh Vitters at #51). The Yankees prospects were rated very fairly – Austin Jackson was at #36 and Jesus Montero at #38, while Andrew Brackman made the list at #92.
BA makes a great point about Austin Jackson that I hadn’t thought of – he’s been exceptionally healthy in the minors, averaging 131 games per season over 3 years.
More on Brackman later today.
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16 Responses to Baseball America Releases Top-100 Prospects
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Yeah, I was excited to see Brack make the list. My question is, what suddenly makes Bard a good enough prospect to be on the list, while Melancon is left off. There is no objective measure that justifies that.
To be fair, on a list like this 90-140 becomes pretty interchangeable. Melancon would be in that range somewhere.
Except that I do not think that a guy with no breaking pitches and some awful MiLB season should be on the list at all.
I mean, he does throw 98.
I agree with you that Melancon is underrated, but relief prospects tend to be met with a great deal of skepticism unless they have some extraordinary velocity (Bard) or high level track record (Chris Perez of the Cards).
Oh, I am not saying Melancon should be on these lists- I think Betances and maybe McCallister are ahead of him. I just think theres nothing that makes Bard noticeably different than say, Matt Lindstrom. Nice 7th-8th inning guy if it all works out. Not a top 100 prospect.
Has Lindstrom ever been on there? He’s got a live arm.
Not that I know of.
No Kei Igawa? Oh, wait…
BA loves Colby Rasmus don’t they, lol. My only beef with BA, and its very minor, is they tend to sour on players quickly if they struggle inthe majors. Example being Cameron Maybin. I remember hearing for awhile how he was the best of the big 3 drafted in ’06 (or was it ’05), those 3 being Bruce, Maybin & McCutchen. Then Maybin gets rushed up to the majors, struggles a bit and now now if you ask BA about him they only mention his inability to get on base. What happened to the glowing reviews about his potential power and defensive ability?
Then suddenly in ’07-’08 Jay Bruce was the golden boy. Now I think Bruce will be the better player, but now Maybin is an after thoguht? Now in ’09 its Colby Rasums. Just my opinion but they seem to jump on the flavor of the month too quickly sometimes.
And they hate admitting mistakes also. Mike A. over at RAB mentioned Pedro Alvarez as an example.
I don’t understand how Alvarez is considered a mistake. The guy put up a monster college career, and his numbers last year were still very good considering he was injured much of the year and never really got back to 100%. That whole contract thing has nothing to do with how good he has at baseball either, and it was probably all Boras anyway. He’s an amazing hitter with ridiculous power, I’d put him in my top 10 as of today.
That being said, I think them putting 2009 as the ETA might be a little bit off. He could make it up that quickly as he’s extremly talented, and pretty polished right now, but I don’t know if they will rush him.
He has good, not great, power. Without any meaningful minor league experience whatsoever, it is really hard to have him that high.
Maybe your right but I still think this guy has great power. Pre-injury and late in the season last year he looked like a future 40 homer hitter. I mean in his first 510 or so at bats in college he did hit 40 homers, and assuming he becomes an every day first basemen he will get that in the majors. Plus you can’t expect a hitter to display his full power upside at 19 and 20 years old. I really think the injury last year was the only reason he hit 9 homers, I really think this guy is a future 40 or more homer guy. Maybe a poor mans Albert Pujols. Hit .300, get on base, hit 35-45 homers every year. That’s worthy of the 12 spot in my opinion and if he has a good year, he’d probably top my list in 2010.
Not a big BA fan either, just think people are to hard on Alvarez as a prospect sometimes.
Oh, I think he has the potential to be a top 5 prospect, I just want him to prove it in the minors a bit.
Agreed 100% on that then. I just think saying hyping up Alvarez is a mistake is a little harsh for a guy with his talent level and college success.
Speaking of proving themselves in the minors.. how far do you think Brackman can move up on this list for next season?
In 07 Joba hadn’t pitched a minor league inning (with the exception of winter ball) and was ranked 75 on the list. By the end of the year he was a top 10 prospect. I don’t think Brackman is as good as Joba, but do you think he has a chance to move into, say, the top 15-25 with a great season?
Similarly, how far up do you think Betances can move? Hopefully the next wave of Brackman & Betances can have a lot of success. The potential rotation of the future of CC, Joba, Hughes, Brackman, Betances, and Wang/McCalister is ridiculous.
Brackman and Betances both made the bottom of some of these lists. I think Brackman can move up the lists quicker due to his bigger name value, but if I had to pick one, it likely would be Betances. He had a great second half last year, whereas Brackman has never really put it together for a long stretch. If they do put it together, I could see them being somewhere in the Top 35 next season. But that is a big if with high risk high reward guys like these.