AL East Risky Pitchers For 2009

Razzball.com, a fantasy baseball site with a statistical analysis bent did a fascinating study on the usage factors that cause pitchers to break down the following season. They studied a variety of factors, and found that an 700+ increase in pitches or throwing more than 27% percent of pitches as curveballs or sliders leads to a durability and performance problems the following season. They followed this study up with a list of 20 pitchers who fit their risk criteria, and a number of them were members of AL East contender’s rotations:

6. Andy Sonnanstine

2008 Curve/Slider % – 39%
2008 Total Pitches: 3,183
Difference From 2007: +1,085 (est. -51 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

Is it me or does this guy sound like a 10 year old kid? Andy Sonnanstine to the principal’s office! Sonnanstine has the weakest stuff of Tampa Bay’s top four (averages just 87 MPH on his fastball) so he has to over-rely on both cutters (30%) and breaking pitches (39%). I won’t recycle the earlier points on the high breaking ball rate – I think you get our POV by now. It seems like World Series teams always have one casualty and he seems like the best bet. If he somehow manages to stay healthy, I’d expect an ERA closer to 2007’s 5.85 vs. last year’s 4.38 despite the fact that his FIP/BABIP indicates he might’ve had some bad luck last year.

14. John Lester

2008 Curve/Slider % – 17%
2008 Total Pitches: 3,758
Difference From 2007: +2,074 (est. +1,080 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

It’s hard to count out Lester given what he’s overcome and he throws a cutter (22% of pitches) instead of a slider. If he keeps throwing the cutter at that rate, he’s a serious long-term threat (check out Steve Avery and Jim Abbott’s stats after they turned 30). For 2009, the huge pitch count increase could end up hurting him worse than the grating accents of Sawx fans – Hey Jahn Lestah! Gid jahb fickin’ beatin’ cancah!

16. AJ Burnett

2008 Curve/Slider % – 30%
2008 Total Pitches: 3,650
Difference From 2007: +1,001
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – NO

A perennial risk who has never really put together the Cy Young-caliber season that his stuff hints at. For a guy with a history of arm injuries and a plus fastball, there is no reason to throw so many curve balls (same thing with Sheets). The Yanks have a lot more incentive than the Jays to reduce that breaking ball rate but it will likely come at the expense of ERA/WHIP unless he develops another strong off speed pitch (he throws his change-up only 5% of the time and has no split-finger fastball). He is worth the risk as a 2nd half of the draft selection but the move to the Yanks will likely boost him into the top 100 or so picks. I’d pass.

17. Matt Garza

2008 Curve/Slider % – 20%
2008 Total Pitches: 3,378
Difference From 2007: +1,493 (est. +452 if minor league pitches included)
2008 First Year With 2,700+ Pitches – YES

The Twins usually reserve their bad moves for resigning their own free agents (see recent Punto and Kubel signings) but the Garza/Bartlett for Delmon Young/Brendan Harris trade isn’t looking too good for them one year out. I don’t know if the Veal Hook will improve in 2009 but my bet is that Garza will fall back a bit. The extended playoff run left him with a small total pitch spike but a large one for MLB pitches. Think those pitches down the pennant stretch and in the playoffs may have been more stressful than throwing mid-season for the Rochester Red Wings (Twins AAA affiliate) in upstate New York? It doesn’t help that his 2008 numbers are boosted by a better than average BABIP (.278).

The risk is mitigated somewhat by the fact that he’s young enough to improve and doesn’t overdo it on the breaking pitches thanks to confidence in a fastball that averages 93 MPH. Risky enough that he isn’t worth reaching for but perhaps worth a flier as a 5th or 6th starter.

Basically, all of the contenders and quasi-contenders in the Al East have injury risks. Being that the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox have good pitching depth, an injury to one of these players may not kill them. However, I think the Rays having decreased performance from both Garza and Sonnanstine would torpedo their chances in the division. Additionally, the Sox are depending on Lester to be their ace, and his loss would make them more dependent on recoveries from John Smoltz and Brad Penny. In regard to Burnett, I wonder how many innings that the Yankees expect from him. If he does go down, Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves will be counted upon to fill his shoes. Ultimately, injuries will likely have a major effect on the divisional race, and the team best situated to deal with the fallout has a great chance to emerge the victor.

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