Fangraphs has a great feature where it lists 3 different projections for each player, CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James. Bill James, the Yoda of sabermetricians, everyone knows about and the other two, you can read about, here, if you’re interested. Nothing is 100% accurate, of course, but it’s fun to look at, especially when your team acquires a couple of big guns like the Yankees have recently.
The one thing these projections really don’t take into account is team changes, so the wins they project for each starter are based upon past totals which will obviously change when they switch to a team with a higher powered offense. I figure it will be fun to project the win totals ourselves. Just for kicks, I’m posting the numbers at random without names, see if you can guess the names yourself, based on the numbers (answers after the jump).
Projection #1: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
CHONE 3.39 1.26 9.98 3.48 101
Marcel 3.23 1.25 9.32 3.26 85
Bill James: No Bill James projection available
Projection #2: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.48 1.23 7.69 2.63 240
CHONE 3.41 1.18 7.89 1.83 211
Marcel 3.22 1.16 8.49 2.13 211
Projection #3: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.90 1.33 6.97 2.39 192
CHONE : 4.32 1.43 6.89 2.91 167
Marcel: 4.48 1.44 6.74 2.89 183
Projection #4: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.70 1.33 4.14 2.61 200
CHONE : 4.47 1.49 4.80 2.84 133
Marcel: 3.79 1.31 4.96 2.91 127
Projection #5: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.62 1.28 8.76 1.59 224
CHONE : 3.88 1.34 8.84 1.69 167
Marcel: 3.97 1.31 8.71 1.71 187
As you probably guessed, the numbers were as follows:
Projection #1 was Joba. Both projections were very pessimistic re: his innings b/c both Marcel and CHONE rely exclusively on a statistical formula and do not imply any human intuition or intangible aspects. Because Joba has never pitched over 100 innings, neither projection had him passing that mark (by much). I think we’d all be disappointed if Joba didn’t get his 140 innings, this year. That would probably indicate injury woes. He wouldn’t win many games in these scenarios.
Projection #2 was CC. I think the Yanks would be pleased with this effort from CC. He’d probably win 18-21 games with a representative Yankee offense.
Projection #3 was Pettitte. Bill James projects a bounceback year, while the other two show a distinct decline. Even the worst case scenario would not be so horrible from a 5th starter, however. The Yanks would be thrilled w/ the James projection. Andy might win 16-18 games with those numbers.
Projection #4 was the Wanger. You can see where James factors in the nature of Wang’s injury and the news that he seems fully recovered while the other models kill him for a season-ending injury which normally bodes very ill for a pitcher. Wang, with James stats (similar to Wang’s 07), could win the 19 he won in 07.
#5 was Burnett, and like Wang, they vary widely. James seems to feel like Burnett has turned a corner, while the other projections pretty much average his previous few seasons. With James’ projection of 224 innings, he could push for 20 wins.
What do you guys think of the projections? Are they fair or not? How many wins do you think we’ll garner out of the rotation this year?
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