Fangraphs has a great feature where it lists 3 different projections for each player, CHONE, Marcel, and Bill James. Bill James, the Yoda of sabermetricians, everyone knows about and the other two, you can read about, here, if you’re interested. Nothing is 100% accurate, of course, but it’s fun to look at, especially when your team acquires a couple of big guns like the Yankees have recently.
The one thing these projections really don’t take into account is team changes, so the wins they project for each starter are based upon past totals which will obviously change when they switch to a team with a higher powered offense. I figure it will be fun to project the win totals ourselves. Just for kicks, I’m posting the numbers at random without names, see if you can guess the names yourself, based on the numbers (answers after the jump).
Projection #1: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
CHONE 3.39 1.26 9.98 3.48 101
Marcel 3.23 1.25 9.32 3.26 85
Bill James: No Bill James projection available
Projection #2: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.48 1.23 7.69 2.63 240
CHONE 3.41 1.18 7.89 1.83 211
Marcel 3.22 1.16 8.49 2.13 211
Projection #3: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.90 1.33 6.97 2.39 192
CHONE : 4.32 1.43 6.89 2.91 167
Marcel: 4.48 1.44 6.74 2.89 183
Projection #4: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.70 1.33 4.14 2.61 200
CHONE : 4.47 1.49 4.80 2.84 133
Marcel: 3.79 1.31 4.96 2.91 127
Projection #5: ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 Innings
Bill James: 3.62 1.28 8.76 1.59 224
CHONE : 3.88 1.34 8.84 1.69 167
Marcel: 3.97 1.31 8.71 1.71 187
As you probably guessed, the numbers were as follows:
Projection #1 was Joba. Both projections were very pessimistic re: his innings b/c both Marcel and CHONE rely exclusively on a statistical formula and do not imply any human intuition or intangible aspects. Because Joba has never pitched over 100 innings, neither projection had him passing that mark (by much). I think we’d all be disappointed if Joba didn’t get his 140 innings, this year. That would probably indicate injury woes. He wouldn’t win many games in these scenarios.
Projection #2 was CC. I think the Yanks would be pleased with this effort from CC. He’d probably win 18-21 games with a representative Yankee offense.
Projection #3 was Pettitte. Bill James projects a bounceback year, while the other two show a distinct decline. Even the worst case scenario would not be so horrible from a 5th starter, however. The Yanks would be thrilled w/ the James projection. Andy might win 16-18 games with those numbers.
Projection #4 was the Wanger. You can see where James factors in the nature of Wang’s injury and the news that he seems fully recovered while the other models kill him for a season-ending injury which normally bodes very ill for a pitcher. Wang, with James stats (similar to Wang’s 07), could win the 19 he won in 07.
#5 was Burnett, and like Wang, they vary widely. James seems to feel like Burnett has turned a corner, while the other projections pretty much average his previous few seasons. With James’ projection of 224 innings, he could push for 20 wins.
What do you guys think of the projections? Are they fair or not? How many wins do you think we’ll garner out of the rotation this year?
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14 Responses to 2009 Rotation Projections
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TIQ IQ
Nice post, Tom. I think these systems routinely underrate Wang due to his low K-rate. Also, I think it is strange they penalize him for a freak leg injury. In regard to Burnett, CC, and Andy, the lines given represent an acceptable range of performance. And with Joba, that inning toal is just predicting another injury. I would certainly take those numbers, but would love 130-150 innings.
Bill James’ projections are notoriously bad and extremely optimistic. The other two prove to be more accurate year in and year out so take Bill James’ projections with an especially large grain of salt.
Yeah, it is a well accepted fact that the James projections are paid any attention only because they have his name on them. They give some awfully optimistic projections for rookies every year.
Overly optimistic, Moshe? Come on. You don’t believe that Chris Davis will hit 40 homers in 2009 (which is James’ actual projection for him—it’s doable, but come on, how about some temperance).
CHONE is generally the most accurate, I believe.
Even if you go with the worst case projection, we’re gonna have a nasty pitching staff. The only potential problem is injuries really…we have the depth to cover an injury or two as well as Joba’s inning limits, but not much after that. If everyone is healthy, its going to be hard to out-pitch us.
Here’s a question: Yanks make the playoffs, whats your rotation for October? Assuming everyone is healthy and along lines of those projections, I go with CC-Burnett-Joba
I’m been one of CMW’s greatest supporters, but I gotta go with the power pitching in October. Here’s another problem though…Joba may very well be at his inning limit by the end of the regular season. If he’s pitching with a sub-4 ERA and strong K/9 numbers it would be mighty hard to sit him or move him to the pen. Do you take a chance and let him start, or do you give it to Pettite or Wang?
If they spread out his innings so that he is just hitting his limit at the end of the season, there is no way they sit him down.
I’d agree. He’ll be 24 by October, so they can probably begin to stretch that +40 rule. The caveat is that they’ll monitor him very closely at 140 to see if he’s straining or hurting at all. If he looks bad, they may shut him down or switch him to the pen.
Which would be fair. If people can see that he is straining, they wont get as much flak for pulling him from the rotation.
Agreed, that makes sense. I just hope that we would be able to see him straining and pull him before he gets injured.
What’s the proyection for Hughes a d IPK?
The Hughes projections were very good for James: ERA in low 3s, the other 2 have him in the low to mid 4s. IPK doesn’t have a James projection and the others give him mid to high 4s. Young players don’t project nearly as accurately, b/c there’s no reliable track record, so these are virtually worthless.
I agree that the Wang IP numbers are too low for the last 2 predictions. Aside from a flukey injury, he’s been an innings eater since he got in the rotation.
I disagree about power pitchers being the choice in postseason. I prefer very good soft tossers to power arms with lesser numbers. I grew up watching Whitey Ford dominate in the WS, and he didn’t throw nearly as hard as some guys on the Yankee staff at the time (Duren & Turley to name two.)
I’d like to see IPK and Phil Phranchise too.
I agree- I dont care how you get the outs as long as you get them.
Well part of my reasoning is Wang’s post-season ERA. I wasn’t making a broad sweeping statement about all post-season rotations, but if everything is clicking for our rotation, in a best of 5 series, I gotta take the careful route and let the power arms have it. No disrespect to the Wanger, but those three have the ability to flat out shut down an offense.